Henan Jianye 1-1 Wuhan Three Towns – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Wuhan Three Towns at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Henan Jianye vs Wuhan Three Towns fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Henan Jianye host Wuhan Three Towns at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday 9 May 2023 at 12:35 UTC.
Form Guide
Henan Jianye — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: L D D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Henan Jianye at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Wuhan Three Towns stand at 6W 1D 3L from 10 Super League matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: D W L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Wuhan Three Towns's form when playing away from home: 7W 1D 2L across 10 road games this term (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Henan Jianye at 1.60 PPG versus Wuhan Three Towns's 1.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Henan Jianye have won 1, Wuhan Three Towns 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 13 Nov 2022, ended 3–1 with Henan Jianye winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Henan Jianye in-play tendencies (34 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games).
Wuhan Three Towns in-play tendencies (34 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Henan Jianye 47% versus Wuhan Three Towns 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Henan Jianye 56% | Wuhan Three Towns 74%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Henan Jianye 0.72 xG and Wuhan Three Towns 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Henan Jianye attack 0.785 / defence 0.847 | Wuhan Three Towns attack 1.360 / defence 0.766. League average goals — home 1.197 / away 1.173. Henan Jianye's attack strength of 0.785 is below the league average — the 0.72 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Wuhan Three Towns's defence strength of 0.766 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Wuhan Three Towns have an above-average attack strength of 1.360 — the away xG of 1.35 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 38 Henan Jianye games / 39 Wuhan Three Towns games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Henan Jianye 17% | Draw 35% | Wuhan Three Towns 49%. Fair-value odds: Henan Jianye 5.88 | Draw 2.86 | Wuhan Three Towns 2.04. Wuhan Three Towns hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (35%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.07. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.07 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Wuhan Three Towns at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 35% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Wuhan Three Towns offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.07 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 34% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 41% on No. Form rates corroborate: Henan Jianye 30% | Wuhan Three Towns 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Henan Jianye vs Wuhan Three Towns | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 9 May 2023, 12:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Henan Jianye 17% | Draw 35% | Wuhan Three Towns 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 41% | xG Henan Jianye 0.72 / Wuhan Three Towns 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: Henan Jianye attack 0.785 / def 0.847 | Wuhan Three Towns attack 1.360 / def 0.766 | league avg home 1.197 / away 1.173 • Poisson stance: Wuhan Three Towns (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.72
Henan Jianye xG
Expected Goals
1.35
Wuhan Three Towns xG
41%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Henan Jianye vs Wuhan Three Towns kick off?
Henan Jianye vs Wuhan Three Towns kicked off at 12:35 on Tuesday 9 May 2023 at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium.
What was the final score in Henan Jianye vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Henan Jianye 1 - 1 Wuhan Three Towns.
Where is Henan Jianye vs Wuhan Three Towns being played?
The match is being played at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium.
What competition is Henan Jianye vs Wuhan Three Towns part of?
Henan Jianye vs Wuhan Three Towns is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Henan Jianye vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Our statistical model gives Henan Jianye a 17% chance of winning, Wuhan Three Towns a 49% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Wuhan Three Towns the favourite.
Will both teams score in Henan Jianye vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Henan Jianye and Wuhan Three Towns will score (BTTS).
Will Henan Jianye vs Wuhan Three Towns have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Henan Jianye and Wuhan Three Towns?
Record (2 meetings): Henan Jianye 1W | Draws 0 | Wuhan Three Towns 1W.
What form are Henan Jianye and Wuhan Three Towns in?
Henan Jianye (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-D-D-W. Wuhan Three Towns (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Henan Jianye's attack at 0.79x the league average against Wuhan Three Towns's defence at 0.77x — combine the two and it projects 0.72 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Wuhan Three Towns's attack versus Henan Jianye's defence, projects 1.35 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.2%), 1-1 (13.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Wuhan Three Towns Win
17%
6.00
35%
2.88
49%
2.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
17.0%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
12.6%
Draw
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.72
Henan Jianye xG
Total xG
2.07
1.35
Wuhan Three Towns xG
6.00
17%
Home win
2.88
35%
Draw
2.06
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.42
59%
BTTS No
1.70
Clean Sheet
26%
3.86
49%
2.05
Win to Nil
4%
23.13
24%
4.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.6 | 17.0 | 11.5 | 5.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 12.3 | 8.3 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 3.3 | 4.4 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Henan Jianye vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.4%.
How many goals are Henan Jianye and Wuhan Three Towns expected to score?
The model projects 0.72 expected goals for Henan Jianye and 1.35 for Wuhan Three Towns, a combined total of 2.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Henan Jianye vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 34 outings, Henan Jianye have picked up 1.65 PPG on a 16W 8D 10L record — L-D-D-D-W across the most recent five.
Wuhan Three Towns's form line: 25W 3D 6L from 34 games, 2.29 PPG, last five D-W-L-W-W.
Put side by side, Wuhan Three Towns are the form team by 0.64 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Henan Jianye.
Venue Form
On home soil, Henan Jianye have posted 1.81 PPG from 16 outings (9W 2D 5L).
On the road, Wuhan Three Towns have gone 12W 2D 2L from 16 away games — 2.38 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Wuhan Three Towns come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Henan Jianye are averaging 1.68 goals scored and 1.03 conceded per game recently; Wuhan Three Towns are on 2.68 scored and 0.82 conceded.
Defensively: Wuhan Three Towns in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 34 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Henan Jianye
Current Season
Wuhan Three Towns
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Henan Jianye and Wuhan Three Towns in coming into this match?
Henan Jianye have gone 16W 8D 10L in their last 34 games (1.65 PPG), while Wuhan Three Towns have gone 25W 3D 6L in their last 34 (2.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Henan Jianye at home or Wuhan Three Towns away?
Wuhan Three Towns's away record (2.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Henan Jianye at home: 1.81 PPG; Wuhan Three Towns away: 2.38 PPG.
Have Henan Jianye or Wuhan Three Towns been keeping clean sheets recently?
Henan Jianye have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Wuhan Three Towns in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 21 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Aug 2022, when Wuhan Three Towns won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Henan Jianye's record when hosting Wuhan Three Towns specifically: 0W 2D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
2
Henan Jianye
2
Draws
5
Wuhan Three Towns
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Henan Jianye and Wuhan Three Towns?
From 9 meetings on record, Henan Jianye have won 2, Wuhan Three Towns have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Henan Jianye and Wuhan Three Towns last play each other?
They last met on 21 March 2026, when Henan Jianye 1-1 Wuhan Three Towns.
Who has won more matches between Henan Jianye and Wuhan Three Towns?
Wuhan Three Towns have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Henan Jianye are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Wuhan Three Towns are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 62% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Henan Jianye 50%, Wuhan Three Towns 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 69% for Henan Jianye and 62% for Wuhan Three Towns. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 19% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Wuhan Three Towns in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Henan Jianye home games / Wuhan Three Towns away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Henan Jianye play Wuhan Three Towns?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Henan Jianye's recent matches and 50% of Wuhan Three Towns's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Henan Jianye vs Wuhan Three Towns usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of Henan Jianye's matches and 62% of Wuhan Three Towns's.
Do Henan Jianye and Wuhan Three Towns tend to score early?
Henan Jianye have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Wuhan Three Towns in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Henan Jianye and Wuhan Three Towns share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Henan Jianye and Wuhan Three Towns finished level at 1-1 at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium, Regular Season - 6, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Henan Jianye 0.72 xG and Wuhan Three Towns 1.35 xG, a combined 2.07. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Henan Jianye attack 0.79 / defence 0.85 against Wuhan Three Towns attack 1.36 / defence 0.77, drawn from 38/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Henan Jianye 17% | Draw 35% | Wuhan Three Towns 49%, with Wuhan Three Towns to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Henan Jianye 56%, Wuhan Three Towns 74%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Henan Jianye's trading profile (34 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Wuhan Three Towns's trading profile (34 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Wuhan Three Towns arrived the stronger side — 2.29 PPG against 1.65. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Henan Jianye (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.94 scoring average — below par going forward. Wuhan Three Towns (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.