Henan Jianye 4-1 Shandong Luneng – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Henan Jianye at 43%, yet in-form Shandong Luneng provide a compelling counter-argument — this Henan Jianye vs Shandong Luneng fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Wuyuan River Stadium Field 2 plays host to Henan Jianye versus Shandong Luneng in Super League, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off: Wednesday 8 June 2022 at 10:30 UTC.
Current Form
Henan Jianye's overall Super League record this term: 4W 4D 2L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: W W D W L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Henan Jianye, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Henan Jianye have posted 6W 4D 0L at Wuyuan River Stadium Field 2 — 2.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Wuyuan River Stadium Field 2. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Henan Jianye are significantly better at Wuyuan River Stadium Field 2 than their overall form suggests.
Shandong Luneng have collected 2.40 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 7W 3D 0L. Last five: W W D D D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Shandong Luneng, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Super League this season, Shandong Luneng have posted 5W 4D 1L from 10 away outings — 1.90 PPG. They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.90 is notably below their overall 2.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Shandong Luneng arrive in superior form — a 0.80 PPG advantage (2.40 vs 1.60) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Trading
Henan Jianye half-time and goal-timing data (22 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 18% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time; they fail to score in 32% of games.
Shandong Luneng half-time and goal-timing data (22 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; they lead at the break 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Henan Jianye 41% versus Shandong Luneng 54%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Henan Jianye 18% | Shandong Luneng 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Henan Jianye 1.52 xG and Shandong Luneng 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Henan Jianye attack 1.078 / defence 1.108 | Shandong Luneng attack 1.036 / defence 0.985. League average goals — home 1.434 / away 1.103. Data: 15 Henan Jianye games / 15 Shandong Luneng games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Henan Jianye 43% | Draw 25% | Shandong Luneng 32%. Fair-value odds: Henan Jianye 2.33 | Draw 4.00 | Shandong Luneng 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Henan Jianye are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Shandong Luneng (2.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Henan Jianye if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.79 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate: Henan Jianye 50% | Shandong Luneng 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (15 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Henan Jianye vs Shandong Luneng | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Wuyuan River Stadium Field 2 • Kick-off: Wednesday 8 Jun 2022, 10:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Henan Jianye 43% | Draw 25% | Shandong Luneng 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 56% | xG Henan Jianye 1.52 / Shandong Luneng 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Henan Jianye attack 1.078 / def 1.108 | Shandong Luneng attack 1.036 / def 0.985 | league avg home 1.434 / away 1.103 • Poisson stance: Henan Jianye (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Henan Jianye xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Shandong Luneng xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Henan Jianye vs Shandong Luneng kick off?
Henan Jianye vs Shandong Luneng kicked off at 10:30 on Wednesday 8 June 2022 at Wuyuan River Stadium Field 2.
What was the final score in Henan Jianye vs Shandong Luneng?
Henan Jianye 4 - 1 Shandong Luneng.
Where is Henan Jianye vs Shandong Luneng being played?
The match is being played at Wuyuan River Stadium Field 2.
What competition is Henan Jianye vs Shandong Luneng part of?
Henan Jianye vs Shandong Luneng is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Henan Jianye vs Shandong Luneng?
Our statistical model gives Henan Jianye a 43% chance of winning, Shandong Luneng a 32% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Henan Jianye the favourite.
Will both teams score in Henan Jianye vs Shandong Luneng?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Henan Jianye and Shandong Luneng will score (BTTS).
Will Henan Jianye vs Shandong Luneng have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Henan Jianye and Shandong Luneng?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Henan Jianye and Shandong Luneng in?
Henan Jianye (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-D-W-L. Shandong Luneng (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Henan Jianye's attacking strength (1.08x league average) is weighed against Shandong Luneng's defensive record (0.98x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.52. Flip it around — Shandong Luneng's attack (1.04x) against Henan Jianye's defence (1.11x) — and the away total comes out at 1.27.
The sample (15/15 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-0 (7.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Henan Jianye Win
43%
2.31
25%
3.98
32%
3.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Henan Jianye xG
Total xG
2.79
1.27
Shandong Luneng xG
2.31
43%
Home win
3.98
25%
Draw
3.16
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
28%
3.55
22%
4.59
Win to Nil
12%
8.20
7%
14.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 7.8 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 11.9 | 7.5 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 9.0 | 5.7 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.6 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Henan Jianye vs Shandong Luneng?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Henan Jianye and Shandong Luneng expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Henan Jianye and 1.27 for Shandong Luneng, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Henan Jianye vs Shandong Luneng?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Henan Jianye's recent record stands at 7W 9D 6L from 22 games, a 1.36 PPG return, with W-W-D-W-L in the last five. The sample for Henan Jianye is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Shandong Luneng, meanwhile, have gone 15W 6D 1L across 22 games — 2.32 PPG, with W-W-D-D-D in their last five. The sample for Shandong Luneng is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Shandong Luneng by 0.96 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Henan Jianye heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Henan Jianye have managed 6W 4D 1L from 11 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.36 PPG overall — Henan Jianye are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Shandong Luneng's away record stands at 6W 4D 1L across 11 trips, a 2.00 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Henan Jianye are averaging 0.86 goals scored and 0.91 conceded per game recently; Shandong Luneng are on 2.14 scored and 0.73 conceded. Shandong Luneng's attacking output running into Henan Jianye's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
Defensively: Henan Jianye have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games; Shandong Luneng in 45% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 22 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Henan Jianye
Blended
Shandong Luneng
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Henan Jianye and Shandong Luneng in coming into this match?
Henan Jianye have gone 7W 9D 6L in their last 22 games (1.36 PPG), while Shandong Luneng have gone 15W 6D 1L in their last 22 (2.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Henan Jianye at home or Shandong Luneng away?
Henan Jianye's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Henan Jianye at home: 2.00 PPG; Shandong Luneng away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Henan Jianye or Shandong Luneng been keeping clean sheets recently?
Henan Jianye have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, Shandong Luneng in 45%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 26 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Shandong Luneng won 5-1 on 4 Nov 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Henan Jianye have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Shandong Luneng — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Henan Jianye
3
Draws
4
Shandong Luneng
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Henan Jianye and Shandong Luneng?
From 10 meetings on record, Henan Jianye have won 3, Shandong Luneng have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Henan Jianye and Shandong Luneng last play each other?
They last met on 26 July 2026, when Shandong Luneng 1-2 Henan Jianye.
Who has won more matches between Henan Jianye and Shandong Luneng?
Shandong Luneng have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Henan Jianye see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Shandong Luneng are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Henan Jianye 54%, Shandong Luneng 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 18% for Henan Jianye and 46% for Shandong Luneng.
On the defensive side: Henan Jianye keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Shandong Luneng in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Henan Jianye home games / Shandong Luneng away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Henan Jianye play Shandong Luneng?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Henan Jianye's recent matches and 54% of Shandong Luneng's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Henan Jianye vs Shandong Luneng usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 18% of Henan Jianye's recent games and 46% of Shandong Luneng's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Henan Jianye and Shandong Luneng tend to score early?
Henan Jianye have had a goal before half-time in 54% of their recent matches, Shandong Luneng in 91% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Henan Jianye run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Shandong Luneng.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Henan Jianye beat Shandong Luneng 4-1 at Wuyuan River Stadium Field 2, Regular Season - 2, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Henan Jianye 1.52 xG and Shandong Luneng 1.27 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Henan Jianye beat their projection by 2.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Henan Jianye attack 1.08 / defence 1.11 against Shandong Luneng attack 1.04 / defence 0.98, drawn from 15/15 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Henan Jianye 43% | Draw 25% | Shandong Luneng 32%, with Henan Jianye to win its most likely call at 43%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 34% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Henan Jianye 18%, Shandong Luneng 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Henan Jianye's trading profile (22 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Shandong Luneng's trading profile (22 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Shandong Luneng arrived the stronger side — 2.32 PPG against 1.36. Form was overturned, with Henan Jianye winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Henan Jianye (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.27 average — above their attacking norm. Shandong Luneng (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.27 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 0.73 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.