Henan Jianye 0-1 Shandong Luneng – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Henan Jianye at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Henan Jianye vs Shandong Luneng fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium plays host to Henan Jianye versus Shandong Luneng in Super League, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off: Friday 7 July 2023 at 12:35 UTC.
Current Form
Henan Jianye's overall Super League record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: D W D W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Henan Jianye, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Henan Jianye have posted 3W 5D 2L at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game.
Shandong Luneng have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 4W 5D 1L. Last five: W W D W D. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Shandong Luneng, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Super League this season, Shandong Luneng have posted 2W 5D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Shandong Luneng arrive in superior form — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 1.20) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Henan Jianye, 1 for Shandong Luneng and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.5 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 28 Jun 2022, ended 0–2 with Shandong Luneng winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Henan Jianye half-time and goal-timing data (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Shandong Luneng half-time and goal-timing data (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Henan Jianye 51% versus Shandong Luneng 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Henan Jianye 47% | Shandong Luneng 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Henan Jianye 1.20 xG and Shandong Luneng 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Henan Jianye attack 0.898 / defence 0.830 | Shandong Luneng attack 1.011 / defence 0.961. League average goals — home 1.384 / away 1.295. Data: 47 Henan Jianye games / 48 Shandong Luneng games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Henan Jianye 37% | Draw 31% | Shandong Luneng 32%. Fair-value odds: Henan Jianye 2.70 | Draw 3.23 | Shandong Luneng 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.28. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.28 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Henan Jianye are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Shandong Luneng (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Henan Jianye if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.28 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates are neutral: Henan Jianye 50% | Shandong Luneng 60%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Henan Jianye vs Shandong Luneng | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 7 Jul 2023, 12:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Henan Jianye 37% | Draw 31% | Shandong Luneng 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 48% | xG Henan Jianye 1.20 / Shandong Luneng 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Henan Jianye attack 0.898 / def 0.830 | Shandong Luneng attack 1.011 / def 0.961 | league avg home 1.384 / away 1.295 • Poisson stance: Henan Jianye (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Henan Jianye xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Shandong Luneng xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Henan Jianye vs Shandong Luneng kick off?
Henan Jianye vs Shandong Luneng kicked off at 12:35 on Friday 7 July 2023 at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium.
What was the final score in Henan Jianye vs Shandong Luneng?
Henan Jianye 0 - 1 Shandong Luneng.
Where is Henan Jianye vs Shandong Luneng being played?
The match is being played at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium.
What competition is Henan Jianye vs Shandong Luneng part of?
Henan Jianye vs Shandong Luneng is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Henan Jianye vs Shandong Luneng?
Our statistical model gives Henan Jianye a 37% chance of winning, Shandong Luneng a 32% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Henan Jianye the favourite.
Will both teams score in Henan Jianye vs Shandong Luneng?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Henan Jianye and Shandong Luneng will score (BTTS).
Will Henan Jianye vs Shandong Luneng have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Henan Jianye and Shandong Luneng?
Record (2 meetings): Henan Jianye 1W | Draws 0 | Shandong Luneng 1W.
What form are Henan Jianye and Shandong Luneng in?
Henan Jianye (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-D-W-L. Shandong Luneng (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Henan Jianye's attacking strength (0.90x league average) is weighed against Shandong Luneng's defensive record (0.96x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.20. Flip it around — Shandong Luneng's attack (1.01x) against Henan Jianye's defence (0.83x) — and the away total comes out at 1.09.
These ratings are built from 47/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.9%), 1-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Henan Jianye Win
37%
2.70
31%
3.20
32%
3.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
0 – 1
11.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Henan Jianye xG
Total xG
2.28
1.09
Shandong Luneng xG
2.70
37%
Home win
3.20
31%
Draw
3.16
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
34%
2.96
30%
3.30
Win to Nil
13%
7.99
10%
10.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.2 | 11.1 | 6.0 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 13.3 | 7.2 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 7.9 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Henan Jianye vs Shandong Luneng?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Henan Jianye and Shandong Luneng expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Henan Jianye and 1.09 for Shandong Luneng, a combined total of 2.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Henan Jianye vs Shandong Luneng?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Henan Jianye's recent record stands at 19W 14D 14L from 47 games, a 1.51 PPG return, with D-W-D-W-L in the last five. The sample for Henan Jianye is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Shandong Luneng, meanwhile, have gone 29W 10D 8L across 47 games — 2.06 PPG, with W-W-D-W-D in their last five. The sample for Shandong Luneng is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Shandong Luneng by 0.55 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Henan Jianye heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Henan Jianye have managed 11W 6D 6L from 23 games — 1.70 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Shandong Luneng's away record stands at 10W 7D 6L across 23 trips, a 1.61 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 2.06 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Shandong Luneng's season.
Attack vs Defence
Henan Jianye are averaging 1.49 goals scored and 1.02 conceded per game recently; Shandong Luneng are on 2.30 scored and 0.91 conceded.
Defensively: Shandong Luneng in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 47 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Henan Jianye
Blended
Shandong Luneng
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Henan Jianye and Shandong Luneng in coming into this match?
Henan Jianye have gone 19W 14D 14L in their last 47 games (1.51 PPG), while Shandong Luneng have gone 29W 10D 8L in their last 47 (2.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Henan Jianye at home or Shandong Luneng away?
Henan Jianye's home record (1.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Henan Jianye at home: 1.70 PPG; Shandong Luneng away: 1.61 PPG.
Have Henan Jianye or Shandong Luneng been keeping clean sheets recently?
Henan Jianye have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Shandong Luneng in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 26 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Shandong Luneng won 5-1 on 4 Nov 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Henan Jianye have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Shandong Luneng — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Henan Jianye
3
Draws
4
Shandong Luneng
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Henan Jianye and Shandong Luneng?
From 10 meetings on record, Henan Jianye have won 3, Shandong Luneng have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Henan Jianye and Shandong Luneng last play each other?
They last met on 26 July 2026, when Shandong Luneng 1-2 Henan Jianye.
Who has won more matches between Henan Jianye and Shandong Luneng?
Shandong Luneng have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Henan Jianye are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Shandong Luneng are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Henan Jianye 52%, Shandong Luneng 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Henan Jianye) and 56% (Shandong Luneng). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 22% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Henan Jianye have failed to score in 26% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Henan Jianye home games / Shandong Luneng away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Henan Jianye play Shandong Luneng?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Henan Jianye's games and 61% of Shandong Luneng's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Henan Jianye vs Shandong Luneng usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Henan Jianye's matches and 56% of Shandong Luneng's.
Do Henan Jianye and Shandong Luneng tend to score early?
Henan Jianye have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Shandong Luneng in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Shandong Luneng defy the odds to beat Henan Jianye 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shandong Luneng beat Henan Jianye 0-1 at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium, Regular Season - 15, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Henan Jianye 1.20 xG and Shandong Luneng 1.09 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Henan Jianye fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Henan Jianye attack 0.90 / defence 0.83 against Shandong Luneng attack 1.01 / defence 0.96, drawn from 47/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Henan Jianye 37% | Draw 31% | Shandong Luneng 32%, with Henan Jianye to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Shandong Luneng win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Henan Jianye 47%, Shandong Luneng 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Henan Jianye's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Shandong Luneng's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Shandong Luneng arrived the stronger side — 2.06 PPG against 1.51. Form held, and they took the win. Henan Jianye (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.65 scoring average — below par going forward. Shandong Luneng (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.83 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.22 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.