Henan Jianye 0-0 Qingdao Jonoon – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Henan Jianye at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Henan Jianye vs Qingdao Jonoon fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League encounter, Regular Season - 2 sees Qingdao Jonoon travel to Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium to take on Henan Jianye. The game is scheduled for Friday 21 April 2023, 12:35 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Henan Jianye stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Super League matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L D D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Henan Jianye have posted 4W 1D 5L at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Henan Jianye 1.73 xG and Qingdao Jonoon 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Henan Jianye attack 1.013 / defence 0.919 | Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.811 / defence 1.238. League average goals — home 1.383 / away 1.293. Qingdao Jonoon bring a strong defensive rating of 1.238 — this is suppressing Henan Jianye's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 34 Henan Jianye games / 1 Qingdao Jonoon games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Henan Jianye 54% | Draw 27% | Qingdao Jonoon 19%. Fair-value odds: Henan Jianye 1.85 | Draw 3.70 | Qingdao Jonoon 5.26. Henan Jianye hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Henan Jianye are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Henan Jianye offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.70 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Henan Jianye vs Qingdao Jonoon | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 21 Apr 2023, 12:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Henan Jianye 54% | Draw 27% | Qingdao Jonoon 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 53% | xG Henan Jianye 1.73 / Qingdao Jonoon 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Henan Jianye attack 1.013 / def 0.919 | Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.811 / def 1.238 | league avg home 1.383 / away 1.293 • Poisson stance: Henan Jianye (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.73
Henan Jianye xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Qingdao Jonoon xG
53%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Henan Jianye vs Qingdao Jonoon kick off?
Henan Jianye vs Qingdao Jonoon kicked off at 12:35 on Friday 21 April 2023 at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium.
What was the final score in Henan Jianye vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Henan Jianye 0 - 0 Qingdao Jonoon.
Where is Henan Jianye vs Qingdao Jonoon being played?
The match is being played at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium.
What competition is Henan Jianye vs Qingdao Jonoon part of?
Henan Jianye vs Qingdao Jonoon is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Henan Jianye vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Our statistical model gives Henan Jianye a 54% chance of winning, Qingdao Jonoon a 19% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Henan Jianye the favourite.
Will both teams score in Henan Jianye vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Henan Jianye and Qingdao Jonoon will score (BTTS).
Will Henan Jianye vs Qingdao Jonoon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Henan Jianye and Qingdao Jonoon?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Henan Jianye and Qingdao Jonoon in?
Henan Jianye (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-D-D-W. Henan Jianye home split: 1.30 PPG from 10 | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | CS 3.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Henan Jianye's attack rating (1.01) and Qingdao Jonoon's defence rating (1.24), the model arrives at 1.73 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Qingdao Jonoon's attack versus Henan Jianye's defence, projects 0.96 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (34/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.2%), 2-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Henan Jianye Win
54%
1.87
27%
3.64
19%
5.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
2 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.73
Henan Jianye xG
Total xG
2.70
0.96
Qingdao Jonoon xG
1.87
54%
Home win
3.64
27%
Draw
5.29
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
38%
2.62
18%
5.66
Win to Nil
20%
4.89
3%
29.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 6.5 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.7 | 11.3 | 5.4 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.1 | 9.8 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.9 | 5.6 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Henan Jianye vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Henan Jianye and Qingdao Jonoon expected to score?
The model projects 1.73 expected goals for Henan Jianye and 0.96 for Qingdao Jonoon, a combined total of 2.70.
How confident is the prediction model for Henan Jianye vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Henan Jianye
Pre-Season
Qingdao Jonoon
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 17 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Jul 2026, when Henan Jianye won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Henan Jianye's record when hosting Qingdao Jonoon specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Henan Jianye
2
Draws
2
Qingdao Jonoon
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Henan Jianye and Qingdao Jonoon?
From 8 meetings on record, Henan Jianye have won 4, Qingdao Jonoon have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Henan Jianye and Qingdao Jonoon last play each other?
They last met on 17 July 2026, when Henan Jianye 5-1 Qingdao Jonoon.
Who has won more matches between Henan Jianye and Qingdao Jonoon?
Henan Jianye have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Henan Jianye home games / Qingdao Jonoon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Stalemate at Henan Jianye's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Henan Jianye and Qingdao Jonoon finished level at 0-0 at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium, Regular Season - 2, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Henan Jianye 1.73 xG and Qingdao Jonoon 0.96 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Henan Jianye fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Qingdao Jonoon landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Henan Jianye attack 1.01 / defence 0.92 against Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.81 / defence 1.24, drawn from 34/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Henan Jianye 54% | Draw 27% | Qingdao Jonoon 19%, with Henan Jianye to win its most likely call at 54%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.