Henan Jianye 6-2 Changchun Yatai – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Henan Jianye at 57% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Henan Jianye vs Changchun Yatai encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Wuyuan River Stadium plays host to Henan Jianye versus Changchun Yatai in Super League, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off: Monday 11 July 2022 at 12:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Henan Jianye have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: D W L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Henan Jianye, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Henan Jianye have posted 7W 3D 0L at Wuyuan River Stadium — 2.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Changchun Yatai's overall Super League record this term: 2W 6D 2L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: D W D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Changchun Yatai, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Super League this season, Changchun Yatai have posted 4W 2D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 0.80 in Henan Jianye's favour (2.00 vs 1.20) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Henan Jianye lead 0W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 0.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 20 Jun 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Henan Jianye goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (31 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
Changchun Yatai goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (31 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Henan Jianye 42% versus Changchun Yatai 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Henan Jianye 29% | Changchun Yatai 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Henan Jianye 2.17 xG and Changchun Yatai 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Henan Jianye attack 1.342 / defence 1.050 | Changchun Yatai attack 1.049 / defence 1.156. League average goals — home 1.400 / away 1.149. Henan Jianye carry an above-average attack strength of 1.342 — their λ of 2.17 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 23 Henan Jianye games / 23 Changchun Yatai games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Henan Jianye 57% | Draw 22% | Changchun Yatai 21%. Fair-value odds: Henan Jianye 1.75 | Draw 4.55 | Changchun Yatai 4.76. The model has a clear lean to Henan Jianye (57%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.44. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.44 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (2.17 / 1.27) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Henan Jianye as the most likely outcome at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.44 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 67% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 64% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Henan Jianye 60% | Changchun Yatai 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Henan Jianye vs Changchun Yatai | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Wuyuan River Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 11 Jul 2022, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Henan Jianye 57% | Draw 22% | Changchun Yatai 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 64% | xG Henan Jianye 2.17 / Changchun Yatai 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Henan Jianye attack 1.342 / def 1.050 | Changchun Yatai attack 1.049 / def 1.156 | league avg home 1.400 / away 1.149 • Poisson stance: Henan Jianye (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.17
Henan Jianye xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Changchun Yatai xG
64%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Henan Jianye vs Changchun Yatai kick off?
Henan Jianye vs Changchun Yatai kicked off at 12:30 on Monday 11 July 2022 at Wuyuan River Stadium.
What was the final score in Henan Jianye vs Changchun Yatai?
Henan Jianye 6 - 2 Changchun Yatai.
Where is Henan Jianye vs Changchun Yatai being played?
The match is being played at Wuyuan River Stadium.
What competition is Henan Jianye vs Changchun Yatai part of?
Henan Jianye vs Changchun Yatai is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Henan Jianye vs Changchun Yatai?
Our statistical model gives Henan Jianye a 57% chance of winning, Changchun Yatai a 21% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Henan Jianye the favourite.
Will both teams score in Henan Jianye vs Changchun Yatai?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Henan Jianye and Changchun Yatai will score (BTTS).
Will Henan Jianye vs Changchun Yatai have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between Henan Jianye and Changchun Yatai?
Record (1 meetings): Henan Jianye 0W | Draws 1 | Changchun Yatai 0W.
What form are Henan Jianye and Changchun Yatai in?
Henan Jianye (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-L-W-W. Changchun Yatai (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Henan Jianye's attacking strength (1.34x league average) is weighed against Changchun Yatai's defensive record (1.16x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.17. Flip it around — Changchun Yatai's attack (1.05x) against Henan Jianye's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 1.27.
These ratings are built from 23/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Henan Jianye Win
57%
1.74
22%
4.60
21%
4.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.8%
Draw
2 – 0
7.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.17
Henan Jianye xG
Total xG
3.44
1.27
Changchun Yatai xG
1.74
57%
Home win
4.60
22%
Draw
4.78
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.55
36%
BTTS No
2.80
Clean Sheet
28%
3.55
11%
8.78
Win to Nil
16%
6.18
2%
42.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 4.1 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 8.8 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 9.6 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 6.9 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.0 | 3.8 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Henan Jianye vs Changchun Yatai?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.0%.
How many goals are Henan Jianye and Changchun Yatai expected to score?
The model projects 2.17 expected goals for Henan Jianye and 1.27 for Changchun Yatai, a combined total of 3.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Henan Jianye vs Changchun Yatai?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Henan Jianye come into this having played 31 games, going 13W 11D 7L for 1.61 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-W-W. The sample for Henan Jianye is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Changchun Yatai sit at 1.61 PPG from 31 outings (13W 11D 7L), a run that reads D-W-D-D-L across their last five. The sample for Changchun Yatai is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.61 PPG for Henan Jianye against 1.61 for Changchun Yatai. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Henan Jianye's home form reads 9W 5D 1L across 15 games on their own ground, a 2.13 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.61 PPG overall — Henan Jianye are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Changchun Yatai have taken 1.47 points per game from 15 outings (6W 4D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Henan Jianye come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Henan Jianye are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 0.87 conceded per game recently; Changchun Yatai are on 1.39 scored and 1.03 conceded.
Defensively: Henan Jianye have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 31 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Henan Jianye
Blended
Changchun Yatai
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Henan Jianye and Changchun Yatai in coming into this match?
Henan Jianye have gone 13W 11D 7L in their last 31 games (1.61 PPG), while Changchun Yatai have gone 13W 11D 7L in their last 31 (1.61 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Henan Jianye at home or Changchun Yatai away?
Henan Jianye's home record (2.13 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Henan Jianye at home: 2.13 PPG; Changchun Yatai away: 1.47 PPG.
Have Henan Jianye or Changchun Yatai been keeping clean sheets recently?
Henan Jianye have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Changchun Yatai in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since June 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 19 October 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Henan Jianye go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Henan Jianye won 6-2 on 11 Jul 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Henan Jianye have gone 2W 2D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Changchun Yatai — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Henan Jianye
4
Draws
1
Changchun Yatai
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Henan Jianye and Changchun Yatai?
From 8 meetings on record, Henan Jianye have won 3, Changchun Yatai have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Henan Jianye and Changchun Yatai last play each other?
They last met on 19 October 2025, when Henan Jianye 2-0 Changchun Yatai.
Who has won more matches between Henan Jianye and Changchun Yatai?
Henan Jianye have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Henan Jianye are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Changchun Yatai are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Henan Jianye 67%, Changchun Yatai 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Henan Jianye) and 67% (Changchun Yatai).
On the defensive side: Henan Jianye keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Changchun Yatai in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Henan Jianye home games / Changchun Yatai away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Henan Jianye play Changchun Yatai?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Henan Jianye's games and 60% of Changchun Yatai's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Henan Jianye vs Changchun Yatai usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Henan Jianye's recent games and 67% of Changchun Yatai's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Henan Jianye and Changchun Yatai tend to score early?
Henan Jianye have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Changchun Yatai in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Henan Jianye run riot with a 6-2 hammering of Changchun Yatai.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Henan Jianye beat Changchun Yatai 6-2 at Wuyuan River Stadium, Regular Season - 10, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Henan Jianye 2.17 xG and Changchun Yatai 1.27 xG, a combined 3.44. The scoreboard read 6-2 for 8 actual goals. Henan Jianye beat their projection by 3.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Henan Jianye attack 1.34 / defence 1.05 against Changchun Yatai attack 1.05 / defence 1.16, drawn from 23/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Henan Jianye 57% | Draw 22% | Changchun Yatai 21%, with Henan Jianye to win its most likely call at 57%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 8, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Henan Jianye 29%, Changchun Yatai 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Henan Jianye's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Changchun Yatai's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Henan Jianye 1.61 PPG, Changchun Yatai 1.61 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Henan Jianye win broke the near-deadlock. Henan Jianye (home/away splits) scored 6 against a 1.67 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.80 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Changchun Yatai (home/away splits) shipped 6 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.