Hangzhou Greentown 1-2 SHANGHAI SIPG – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SHANGHAI SIPG at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hangzhou Greentown vs SHANGHAI SIPG fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
SHANGHAI SIPG make the trip to Huzhou Olympic Sports Center to face Hangzhou Greentown in Super League, Regular Season - 7. The match kicks off on Sunday 14 May 2023 at 12:35 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Hangzhou Greentown have collected 2.30 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 7W 2D 1L. Last five: W W D L W. They are averaging 2.70 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Hangzhou Greentown's home record at Huzhou Olympic Sports Center: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Super League appearances (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
SHANGHAI SIPG (all games): 6W 1D 3L across 10 Super League outings this term — 1.90 points per game. Last five: D W W W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
SHANGHAI SIPG's away record: 6W 1D 3L from 10 road trips in Super League this season (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
A near-identical PPG reading — 2.30 for Hangzhou Greentown, 1.90 for SHANGHAI SIPG — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Hangzhou Greentown 1W, SHANGHAI SIPG 0W, 1D.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Nov 2022, ended 2–1 with Hangzhou Greentown winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Hangzhou Greentown goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
SHANGHAI SIPG goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hangzhou Greentown 46% versus SHANGHAI SIPG 37%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Hangzhou Greentown 37% | SHANGHAI SIPG 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hangzhou Greentown 0.71 xG and SHANGHAI SIPG 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hangzhou Greentown attack 0.906 / defence 1.087 | SHANGHAI SIPG attack 0.988 / defence 0.629. League average goals — home 1.241 / away 1.227. SHANGHAI SIPG's defence strength of 0.629 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 39 Hangzhou Greentown games / 40 SHANGHAI SIPG games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hangzhou Greentown 16% | Draw 36% | SHANGHAI SIPG 48%. Fair-value odds: Hangzhou Greentown 6.25 | Draw 2.78 | SHANGHAI SIPG 2.08. SHANGHAI SIPG hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (36%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.02. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.02 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is SHANGHAI SIPG at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 36% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SHANGHAI SIPG if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.02 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 33% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 41% on No. Form rates are neutral: Hangzhou Greentown 50% | SHANGHAI SIPG 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hangzhou Greentown vs SHANGHAI SIPG | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Huzhou Olympic Sports Center • Kick-off: Sunday 14 May 2023, 12:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hangzhou Greentown 16% | Draw 36% | SHANGHAI SIPG 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 41% | xG Hangzhou Greentown 0.71 / SHANGHAI SIPG 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Hangzhou Greentown attack 0.906 / def 1.087 | SHANGHAI SIPG attack 0.988 / def 0.629 | league avg home 1.241 / away 1.227 • Poisson stance: SHANGHAI SIPG (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.71
Hangzhou Greentown xG
Expected Goals
1.32
SHANGHAI SIPG xG
41%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hangzhou Greentown vs SHANGHAI SIPG kick off?
Hangzhou Greentown vs SHANGHAI SIPG kicked off at 12:35 on Sunday 14 May 2023 at Huzhou Olympic Sports Center.
What was the final score in Hangzhou Greentown vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Hangzhou Greentown 1 - 2 SHANGHAI SIPG.
Where is Hangzhou Greentown vs SHANGHAI SIPG being played?
The match is being played at Huzhou Olympic Sports Center.
What competition is Hangzhou Greentown vs SHANGHAI SIPG part of?
Hangzhou Greentown vs SHANGHAI SIPG is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Hangzhou Greentown vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Our statistical model gives Hangzhou Greentown a 16% chance of winning, SHANGHAI SIPG a 48% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making SHANGHAI SIPG the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hangzhou Greentown vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Hangzhou Greentown and SHANGHAI SIPG will score (BTTS).
Will Hangzhou Greentown vs SHANGHAI SIPG have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hangzhou Greentown and SHANGHAI SIPG?
Record (2 meetings): Hangzhou Greentown 1W | Draws 1 | SHANGHAI SIPG 0W.
What form are Hangzhou Greentown and SHANGHAI SIPG in?
Hangzhou Greentown (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-D-L-W. SHANGHAI SIPG (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Hangzhou Greentown's attacking strength (0.91x league average) is weighed against SHANGHAI SIPG's defensive record (0.63x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.71. Flip it around — SHANGHAI SIPG's attack (0.99x) against Hangzhou Greentown's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 1.32.
These ratings are built from 39/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-1, at 15.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.8%), 1-1 (13.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SHANGHAI SIPG Win
16%
6.12
36%
2.77
48%
2.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
17.4%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.2%
Draw
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.71
Hangzhou Greentown xG
Total xG
2.02
1.32
SHANGHAI SIPG xG
6.12
16%
Home win
2.77
36%
Draw
2.10
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.45
59%
BTTS No
1.69
Clean Sheet
27%
3.73
49%
2.03
Win to Nil
4%
22.84
23%
4.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.2 | 17.4 | 11.5 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 12.3 | 8.1 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 3.3 | 4.3 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hangzhou Greentown vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.8%.
How many goals are Hangzhou Greentown and SHANGHAI SIPG expected to score?
The model projects 0.71 expected goals for Hangzhou Greentown and 1.32 for SHANGHAI SIPG, a combined total of 2.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Hangzhou Greentown vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 35 outings, Hangzhou Greentown have picked up 1.89 PPG on a 18W 12D 5L record — W-W-D-L-W across the most recent five.
SHANGHAI SIPG's form line: 21W 5D 9L from 35 games, 1.94 PPG, last five D-W-W-W-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.89 PPG for Hangzhou Greentown against 1.94 for SHANGHAI SIPG. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Hangzhou Greentown have posted 2.06 PPG from 17 outings (10W 5D 2L).
On the road, SHANGHAI SIPG have gone 9W 3D 5L from 17 away games — 1.76 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Hangzhou Greentown are averaging 1.77 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game recently; SHANGHAI SIPG are on 1.60 scored and 0.71 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Hangzhou Greentown have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games; SHANGHAI SIPG in 49% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 35 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hangzhou Greentown
Current Season
SHANGHAI SIPG
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hangzhou Greentown and SHANGHAI SIPG in coming into this match?
Hangzhou Greentown have gone 18W 12D 5L in their last 35 games (1.89 PPG), while SHANGHAI SIPG have gone 21W 5D 9L in their last 35 (1.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hangzhou Greentown at home or SHANGHAI SIPG away?
Hangzhou Greentown's home record (2.06 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hangzhou Greentown at home: 2.06 PPG; SHANGHAI SIPG away: 1.76 PPG.
Have Hangzhou Greentown or SHANGHAI SIPG been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hangzhou Greentown have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, SHANGHAI SIPG in 49%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 15 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: SHANGHAI SIPG won 3-0 on 31 Oct 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Hangzhou Greentown have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against SHANGHAI SIPG — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
2
Hangzhou Greentown
4
Draws
3
SHANGHAI SIPG
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hangzhou Greentown and SHANGHAI SIPG?
From 9 meetings on record, Hangzhou Greentown have won 2, SHANGHAI SIPG have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Hangzhou Greentown and SHANGHAI SIPG last play each other?
They last met on 15 May 2026, when SHANGHAI SIPG 2-2 Hangzhou Greentown.
Who has won more matches between Hangzhou Greentown and SHANGHAI SIPG?
SHANGHAI SIPG have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Hangzhou Greentown are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 59% of the time.
SHANGHAI SIPG see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hangzhou Greentown 29%, SHANGHAI SIPG 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (Hangzhou Greentown) and 53% (SHANGHAI SIPG).
On the defensive side: Hangzhou Greentown keep a clean sheet in 59% of their matches; SHANGHAI SIPG in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hangzhou Greentown home games / SHANGHAI SIPG away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hangzhou Greentown play SHANGHAI SIPG?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 29% of Hangzhou Greentown's recent matches and 47% of SHANGHAI SIPG's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hangzhou Greentown vs SHANGHAI SIPG usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Hangzhou Greentown's recent games and 53% of SHANGHAI SIPG's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hangzhou Greentown and SHANGHAI SIPG tend to score early?
Hangzhou Greentown have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, SHANGHAI SIPG in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as SHANGHAI SIPG edge out Hangzhou Greentown 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SHANGHAI SIPG beat Hangzhou Greentown 1-2 at Huzhou Olympic Sports Center, Regular Season - 7, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hangzhou Greentown 0.71 xG and SHANGHAI SIPG 1.32 xG, a combined 2.02. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hangzhou Greentown attack 0.91 / defence 1.09 against SHANGHAI SIPG attack 0.99 / defence 0.63, drawn from 39/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hangzhou Greentown 16% | Draw 36% | SHANGHAI SIPG 48%, with SHANGHAI SIPG to win its most likely call at 48%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hangzhou Greentown 37%, SHANGHAI SIPG 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hangzhou Greentown's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
SHANGHAI SIPG's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hangzhou Greentown 1.89 PPG, SHANGHAI SIPG 1.94 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SHANGHAI SIPG win broke the near-deadlock. Hangzhou Greentown (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.59 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.