Hangzhou Greentown 3-4 Shanghai Shenhua – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Shanghai Shenhua at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hangzhou Greentown vs Shanghai Shenhua encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League clash, Regular Season - 25 as Hangzhou Greentown welcome Shanghai Shenhua to Huanglong Sports Center Stadium. Kick-off is set for Friday 13 September 2024 at 12:35 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League games this season, Hangzhou Greentown have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: L L W L D. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Hangzhou Greentown, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hangzhou Greentown's home record at Huanglong Sports Center Stadium: 7W 0D 3L from 10 Super League appearances (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.90 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Hangzhou Greentown are significantly better at Huanglong Sports Center Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Shanghai Shenhua stand at 8W 1D 1L from 10 Super League matches — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Shanghai Shenhua, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Shanghai Shenhua's form when playing away from home: 7W 2D 1L across 10 road games this term (2.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Shanghai Shenhua — 1.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.50 vs 1.00). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, Hangzhou Greentown have won 2, Shanghai Shenhua 2, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 May 2024, ended 0–4 with Shanghai Shenhua winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Hangzhou Greentown trading profile (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Shanghai Shenhua trading profile (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hangzhou Greentown 63% versus Shanghai Shenhua 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hangzhou Greentown 76% | Shanghai Shenhua 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hangzhou Greentown 1.36 xG and Shanghai Shenhua 1.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.278 / defence 1.144 | Shanghai Shenhua attack 1.216 / defence 0.589. League average goals — home 1.807 / away 1.293. Hangzhou Greentown carry an above-average attack strength of 1.278 — their λ of 1.36 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Shanghai Shenhua's defence strength of 0.589 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Shanghai Shenhua have an above-average attack strength of 1.216 — the away xG of 1.80 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 54 Hangzhou Greentown games / 54 Shanghai Shenhua games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hangzhou Greentown 29% | Draw 23% | Shanghai Shenhua 48%. Fair-value odds: Hangzhou Greentown 3.45 | Draw 4.35 | Shanghai Shenhua 2.08. Shanghai Shenhua hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.16. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.16 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.36 / 1.80) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Shanghai Shenhua at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Shanghai Shenhua offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.16 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 61% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate: Hangzhou Greentown 90% | Shanghai Shenhua 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hangzhou Greentown vs Shanghai Shenhua | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Huanglong Sports Center Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 13 Sep 2024, 12:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hangzhou Greentown 29% | Draw 23% | Shanghai Shenhua 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 62% | xG Hangzhou Greentown 1.36 / Shanghai Shenhua 1.80 • Poisson strength factors: Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.278 / def 1.144 | Shanghai Shenhua attack 1.216 / def 0.589 | league avg home 1.807 / away 1.293 • Poisson stance: Shanghai Shenhua (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Hangzhou Greentown xG
Expected Goals
1.80
Shanghai Shenhua xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hangzhou Greentown vs Shanghai Shenhua kick off?
Hangzhou Greentown vs Shanghai Shenhua kicked off at 12:35 on Friday 13 September 2024 at Huanglong Sports Center Stadium.
What was the final score in Hangzhou Greentown vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Hangzhou Greentown 3 - 4 Shanghai Shenhua.
Where is Hangzhou Greentown vs Shanghai Shenhua being played?
The match is being played at Huanglong Sports Center Stadium.
What competition is Hangzhou Greentown vs Shanghai Shenhua part of?
Hangzhou Greentown vs Shanghai Shenhua is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Hangzhou Greentown vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Our statistical model gives Hangzhou Greentown a 29% chance of winning, Shanghai Shenhua a 48% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Shanghai Shenhua the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hangzhou Greentown vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Hangzhou Greentown and Shanghai Shenhua will score (BTTS).
Will Hangzhou Greentown vs Shanghai Shenhua have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hangzhou Greentown and Shanghai Shenhua?
Record (5 meetings): Hangzhou Greentown 2W | Draws 1 | Shanghai Shenhua 2W.
What form are Hangzhou Greentown and Shanghai Shenhua in?
Hangzhou Greentown (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-W-L-D. Shanghai Shenhua (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 3.00 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Hangzhou Greentown's attack rating (1.28) and Shanghai Shenhua's defence rating (0.59), the model arrives at 1.36 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Shanghai Shenhua's attack versus Hangzhou Greentown's defence, projects 1.80 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 2-1 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Shanghai Shenhua Win
29%
3.45
23%
4.29
48%
2.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
0 – 1
7.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Hangzhou Greentown xG
Total xG
3.16
1.80
Shanghai Shenhua xG
3.45
29%
Home win
4.29
23%
Draw
2.10
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.64
Clean Sheet
17%
6.04
26%
3.89
Win to Nil
5%
20.84
12%
8.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 7.7 | 6.9 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 5.8 | 10.4 | 9.3 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 7.1 | 6.4 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 3.2 | 2.9 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hangzhou Greentown vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Hangzhou Greentown and Shanghai Shenhua expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Hangzhou Greentown and 1.80 for Shanghai Shenhua, a combined total of 3.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Hangzhou Greentown vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 54 outings, Hangzhou Greentown have picked up 1.61 PPG on a 26W 9D 19L record — L-L-W-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Hangzhou Greentown is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Shanghai Shenhua's form line: 34W 11D 9L from 54 games, 2.09 PPG, last five W-W-L-W-W. The sample for Shanghai Shenhua is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Shanghai Shenhua are the form team by 0.48 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Hangzhou Greentown.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Hangzhou Greentown have posted 2.00 PPG from 27 outings (17W 3D 7L).
On the road, Shanghai Shenhua have gone 16W 5D 6L from 27 away games — 1.96 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Hangzhou Greentown are averaging 1.81 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Shanghai Shenhua are on 1.74 scored and 0.80 conceded. Hangzhou Greentown's scoring rate against Shanghai Shenhua's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Hangzhou Greentown have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Defensively: Shanghai Shenhua in 48% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 54 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hangzhou Greentown
Blended
Shanghai Shenhua
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hangzhou Greentown and Shanghai Shenhua in coming into this match?
Hangzhou Greentown have gone 26W 9D 19L in their last 54 games (1.61 PPG), while Shanghai Shenhua have gone 34W 11D 9L in their last 54 (2.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hangzhou Greentown at home or Shanghai Shenhua away?
Hangzhou Greentown's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hangzhou Greentown at home: 2.00 PPG; Shanghai Shenhua away: 1.96 PPG.
Have Hangzhou Greentown or Shanghai Shenhua been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hangzhou Greentown have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Shanghai Shenhua in 48%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Hangzhou Greentown and Shanghai Shenhua runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 5 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 5 May 2024, when Shanghai Shenhua won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Hangzhou Greentown's record when hosting Shanghai Shenhua specifically: 0W 3D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Hangzhou Greentown
3
Draws
5
Shanghai Shenhua
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hangzhou Greentown and Shanghai Shenhua?
From 10 meetings on record, Hangzhou Greentown have won 2, Shanghai Shenhua have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Hangzhou Greentown and Shanghai Shenhua last play each other?
They last met on 5 July 2026, when Shanghai Shenhua 3-2 Hangzhou Greentown.
Who has won more matches between Hangzhou Greentown and Shanghai Shenhua?
Shanghai Shenhua have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Hangzhou Greentown are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Shanghai Shenhua are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hangzhou Greentown 59%, Shanghai Shenhua 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 74% (Hangzhou Greentown) and 44% (Shanghai Shenhua). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 7% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Shanghai Shenhua in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hangzhou Greentown home games / Shanghai Shenhua away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hangzhou Greentown play Shanghai Shenhua?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of Hangzhou Greentown's recent matches and 44% of Shanghai Shenhua's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hangzhou Greentown vs Shanghai Shenhua usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 74% of Hangzhou Greentown's matches and 44% of Shanghai Shenhua's.
Do Hangzhou Greentown and Shanghai Shenhua tend to score early?
Hangzhou Greentown have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Shanghai Shenhua in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Shanghai Shenhua edge out Hangzhou Greentown 3-4.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shanghai Shenhua beat Hangzhou Greentown 3-4 at Huanglong Sports Center Stadium, Regular Season - 25, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hangzhou Greentown 1.36 xG and Shanghai Shenhua 1.80 xG, a combined 3.16. The scoreboard read 3-4 for 7 actual goals. Hangzhou Greentown beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Shanghai Shenhua outscored their 1.80 projection by 2.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.28 / defence 1.14 against Shanghai Shenhua attack 1.22 / defence 0.59, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hangzhou Greentown 29% | Draw 23% | Shanghai Shenhua 48%, with Shanghai Shenhua to win its most likely call at 48%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 39% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hangzhou Greentown 76%, Shanghai Shenhua 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hangzhou Greentown's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Shanghai Shenhua's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Shanghai Shenhua arrived the stronger side — 2.09 PPG against 1.61. That form edge translated into the three points. Hangzhou Greentown (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.19 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.15 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Shanghai Shenhua (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.41 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 0.81 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.