Hangzhou Greentown 0-0 Qingdao Huanghai – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Hangzhou Greentown at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hangzhou Greentown vs Qingdao Huanghai encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League encounter, Relegation Round sees Qingdao Huanghai travel to Suzhou Olympic Sports Centre Stadium to take on Hangzhou Greentown. The game is scheduled for Wednesday 12 January 2022, 07:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hangzhou Greentown stand at 1W 0D 0L from 1 Super League matches — 3.00 PPG. Last five: W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 1 games (100%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Hangzhou Greentown have played only a handful of Super League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Qingdao Huanghai — All Games: 1W 1D 8L from 10 Super League fixtures this season — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 2.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. This season is still relatively young for Qingdao Huanghai, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Super League this season, Qingdao Huanghai have posted 1W 1D 8L from 10 away outings — 0.40 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game.
Hangzhou Greentown carry the stronger recent momentum — 2.60 PPG ahead of their opponents on 3.00 vs 0.40. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Hangzhou Greentown, 0 for Qingdao Huanghai and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 8 Jan 2022, ended 1–0 with Hangzhou Greentown winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hangzhou Greentown 1.34 xG and Qingdao Huanghai 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hangzhou Greentown attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Qingdao Huanghai attack 0.695 / defence 1.364. League average goals — home 1.157 / away 1.286. Qingdao Huanghai bring a strong defensive rating of 1.364 — this is suppressing Hangzhou Greentown's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 0 Hangzhou Greentown games / 14 Qingdao Huanghai games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hangzhou Greentown 42% | Draw 32% | Qingdao Huanghai 26%. Fair-value odds: Hangzhou Greentown 2.38 | Draw 3.12 | Qingdao Huanghai 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Hangzhou Greentown are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hangzhou Greentown offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.37 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hangzhou Greentown vs Qingdao Huanghai | Competition: Super League, Relegation Round | Venue: Suzhou Olympic Sports Centre Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 12 Jan 2022, 07:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hangzhou Greentown 42% | Draw 32% | Qingdao Huanghai 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 50% | xG Hangzhou Greentown 1.34 / Qingdao Huanghai 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Hangzhou Greentown attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Qingdao Huanghai attack 0.695 / def 1.364 | league avg home 1.157 / away 1.286 • Poisson stance: Hangzhou Greentown (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Hangzhou Greentown xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Qingdao Huanghai xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hangzhou Greentown vs Qingdao Huanghai kick off?
Hangzhou Greentown vs Qingdao Huanghai kicked off at 07:30 on Wednesday 12 January 2022 at Suzhou Olympic Sports Centre Stadium.
What was the final score in Hangzhou Greentown vs Qingdao Huanghai?
Hangzhou Greentown 0 - 0 Qingdao Huanghai.
Where is Hangzhou Greentown vs Qingdao Huanghai being played?
The match is being played at Suzhou Olympic Sports Centre Stadium.
What competition is Hangzhou Greentown vs Qingdao Huanghai part of?
Hangzhou Greentown vs Qingdao Huanghai is a Relegation Round fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Hangzhou Greentown vs Qingdao Huanghai?
Our statistical model gives Hangzhou Greentown a 42% chance of winning, Qingdao Huanghai a 26% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Hangzhou Greentown the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hangzhou Greentown vs Qingdao Huanghai?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Hangzhou Greentown and Qingdao Huanghai will score (BTTS).
Will Hangzhou Greentown vs Qingdao Huanghai have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hangzhou Greentown and Qingdao Huanghai?
Record (1 meetings): Hangzhou Greentown 1W | Draws 0 | Qingdao Huanghai 0W.
What form are Hangzhou Greentown and Qingdao Huanghai in?
Hangzhou Greentown (all comps): 1W-0D-0L in 1 | 3.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.00 | L5 W. Qingdao Huanghai (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Hangzhou Greentown's attack rating (0.85) and Qingdao Huanghai's defence rating (1.36), the model arrives at 1.34 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Qingdao Huanghai's attack versus Hangzhou Greentown's defence, projects 1.03 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 0/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.0%), 1-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hangzhou Greentown Win
42%
2.40
32%
3.14
26%
3.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Hangzhou Greentown xG
Total xG
2.37
1.03
Qingdao Huanghai xG
2.40
42%
Home win
3.14
32%
Draw
3.78
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.02
50%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
36%
2.79
26%
3.83
Win to Nil
15%
6.69
7%
14.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.4 | 9.6 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.6 | 12.9 | 6.6 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 8.7 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 3.9 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hangzhou Greentown vs Qingdao Huanghai?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Hangzhou Greentown and Qingdao Huanghai expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Hangzhou Greentown and 1.03 for Qingdao Huanghai, a combined total of 2.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Hangzhou Greentown vs Qingdao Huanghai?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Hangzhou Greentown come into this having played 1 games, going 1W 0D 0L for 3.00 points per game. Their last five reads W. It's still early in the season for Hangzhou Greentown, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Qingdao Huanghai sit at 0.00 PPG from 1 outings (0W 0D 1L), a run that reads L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Qingdao Huanghai, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Hangzhou Greentown carry the stronger recent form of the two, 3.00 PPG clear of Qingdao Huanghai — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
The Goals Picture
Hangzhou Greentown are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.00 conceded per game recently; Qingdao Huanghai are on 0.00 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Hangzhou Greentown have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games; Qingdao Huanghai in 0%.
Defensively: Hangzhou Greentown have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 1 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hangzhou Greentown
Early Season
Qingdao Huanghai
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hangzhou Greentown and Qingdao Huanghai in coming into this match?
Hangzhou Greentown have gone 1W 0D 0L in their last 1 games (3.00 PPG), while Qingdao Huanghai have gone 0W 0D 1L in their last 1 (0.00 PPG).
Have Hangzhou Greentown or Qingdao Huanghai been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hangzhou Greentown have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their recent games, Qingdao Huanghai in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Hangzhou Greentown and Qingdao Huanghai runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to January 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 January 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Hangzhou Greentown
1
Draws
0
Qingdao Huanghai
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hangzhou Greentown and Qingdao Huanghai?
From 2 meetings on record, Hangzhou Greentown have won 1, Qingdao Huanghai have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Hangzhou Greentown and Qingdao Huanghai last play each other?
They last met on 12 January 2022, when Hangzhou Greentown 0-0 Qingdao Huanghai.
Who has won more matches between Hangzhou Greentown and Qingdao Huanghai?
Hangzhou Greentown have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hangzhou Greentown home games / Qingdao Huanghai away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hangzhou Greentown play Qingdao Huanghai?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Hangzhou Greentown's recent matches and 0% of Qingdao Huanghai's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hangzhou Greentown vs Qingdao Huanghai usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Hangzhou Greentown's recent games and 0% of Qingdao Huanghai's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hangzhou Greentown and Qingdao Huanghai tend to score early?
Hangzhou Greentown have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Qingdao Huanghai in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Hangzhou Greentown's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Suzhou Olympic Sports Centre Stadium, Relegation Round, as Hangzhou Greentown and Qingdao Huanghai drew 0-0 in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hangzhou Greentown 1.34 xG and Qingdao Huanghai 1.03 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Hangzhou Greentown fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Qingdao Huanghai landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hangzhou Greentown attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Qingdao Huanghai attack 0.69 / defence 1.36, drawn from 0/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hangzhou Greentown 42% | Draw 32% | Qingdao Huanghai 26%, with Hangzhou Greentown to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 0% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hangzhou Greentown 0%, Qingdao Huanghai 0%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 0%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Hangzhou Greentown arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 0.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Hangzhou Greentown managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Qingdao Huanghai conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.