Hangzhou Greentown 2-0 Guangzhou R&F – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Hangzhou Greentown at 54% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hangzhou Greentown vs Guangzhou R&F encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Hangzhou Greentown and Guangzhou R&F meet at Wuyuan River Stadium Field 2 in Super League, Regular Season - 10. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 10 July 2022 at 12:30 UTC.
Form
Hangzhou Greentown (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 Super League fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W W D L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Hangzhou Greentown, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hangzhou Greentown at Wuyuan River Stadium Field 2 this season: 2W 2D 1L from 5 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 5 home games (80%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Wuyuan River Stadium Field 2.
Guangzhou R&F have collected 0.30 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 1W 0D 9L. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 2.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. This season is still relatively young for Guangzhou R&F, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Guangzhou R&F's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form ledger tips toward Hangzhou Greentown. A 1.00 PPG lead over Guangzhou R&F (1.30 vs 0.30) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Hangzhou Greentown, 0 for Guangzhou R&F and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 6.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Jun 2022, ended 4–2 with Hangzhou Greentown winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 6.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Hangzhou Greentown — key trading statistics (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 20% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time; they fail to score in 36% of games.
Guangzhou R&F — key trading statistics (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hangzhou Greentown 36% versus Guangzhou R&F 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hangzhou Greentown 18% | Guangzhou R&F 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hangzhou Greentown 1.41 xG and Guangzhou R&F 0.66 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hangzhou Greentown attack 0.817 / defence 0.734 | Guangzhou R&F attack 0.783 / defence 1.237. League average goals — home 1.399 / away 1.140. Guangzhou R&F bring a strong defensive rating of 1.237 — this is suppressing Hangzhou Greentown's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Hangzhou Greentown's defence rating of 0.734 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 9 Hangzhou Greentown games / 23 Guangzhou R&F games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hangzhou Greentown 54% | Draw 29% | Guangzhou R&F 16%. Fair-value odds: Hangzhou Greentown 1.85 | Draw 3.45 | Guangzhou R&F 6.25. Hangzhou Greentown hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 2.07. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.07 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Hangzhou Greentown are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Hangzhou Greentown if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.07 combined xG gives a 34% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.7 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 37%. Form rates corroborate: Hangzhou Greentown 0% | Guangzhou R&F 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hangzhou Greentown vs Guangzhou R&F | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Wuyuan River Stadium Field 2 • Kick-off: Sunday 10 Jul 2022, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hangzhou Greentown 54% | Draw 29% | Guangzhou R&F 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 37% | xG Hangzhou Greentown 1.41 / Guangzhou R&F 0.66 • Poisson strength factors: Hangzhou Greentown attack 0.817 / def 0.734 | Guangzhou R&F attack 0.783 / def 1.237 | league avg home 1.399 / away 1.140 • Poisson stance: Hangzhou Greentown (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Hangzhou Greentown xG
Expected Goals
0.66
Guangzhou R&F xG
37%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hangzhou Greentown vs Guangzhou R&F kick off?
Hangzhou Greentown vs Guangzhou R&F kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 10 July 2022 at Wuyuan River Stadium Field 2.
What was the final score in Hangzhou Greentown vs Guangzhou R&F?
Hangzhou Greentown 2 - 0 Guangzhou R&F.
Where is Hangzhou Greentown vs Guangzhou R&F being played?
The match is being played at Wuyuan River Stadium Field 2.
What competition is Hangzhou Greentown vs Guangzhou R&F part of?
Hangzhou Greentown vs Guangzhou R&F is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Hangzhou Greentown vs Guangzhou R&F?
Our statistical model gives Hangzhou Greentown a 54% chance of winning, Guangzhou R&F a 16% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Hangzhou Greentown the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hangzhou Greentown vs Guangzhou R&F?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Hangzhou Greentown and Guangzhou R&F will score (BTTS).
Will Hangzhou Greentown vs Guangzhou R&F have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hangzhou Greentown and Guangzhou R&F?
Record (1 meetings): Hangzhou Greentown 1W | Draws 0 | Guangzhou R&F 0W.
What form are Hangzhou Greentown and Guangzhou R&F in?
Hangzhou Greentown (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-D-L-W. Guangzhou R&F (all comps): 1W-0D-9L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Hangzhou Greentown's attack at 0.82x the league average against Guangzhou R&F's defence at 1.24x — combine the two and it projects 1.41 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Guangzhou R&F's attack (0.78x) against Hangzhou Greentown's defence (0.73x) — and the away total comes out at 0.66.
These ratings are built from 9/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.2%), 1-1 (13.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hangzhou Greentown Win
54%
1.84
29%
3.42
16%
6.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.9%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
12.6%
Draw
2 – 0
12.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Hangzhou Greentown xG
Total xG
2.07
0.66
Guangzhou R&F xG
1.84
54%
Home win
3.42
29%
Draw
6.12
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.68
63%
BTTS No
1.60
Clean Sheet
52%
1.93
24%
4.11
Win to Nil
28%
3.54
4%
25.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.6 | 8.3 | 2.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 17.9 | 11.7 | 3.8 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 12.6 | 8.3 | 2.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 6.0 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hangzhou Greentown vs Guangzhou R&F?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.3%.
How many goals are Hangzhou Greentown and Guangzhou R&F expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Hangzhou Greentown and 0.66 for Guangzhou R&F, a combined total of 2.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Hangzhou Greentown vs Guangzhou R&F?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Hangzhou Greentown's recent record stands at 4W 4D 3L from 11 games, a 1.45 PPG return, with W-W-D-L-W in the last five. The sample for Hangzhou Greentown is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Guangzhou R&F, meanwhile, have gone 1W 1D 9L across 11 games — 0.36 PPG, with L-L-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Guangzhou R&F is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Hangzhou Greentown by 1.09 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Guangzhou R&F heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Hangzhou Greentown have managed 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — 1.60 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Guangzhou R&F's away record stands at 0W 1D 4L across 5 trips, a 0.20 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hangzhou Greentown come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Hangzhou Greentown are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 0.82 conceded per game recently; Guangzhou R&F are on 0.73 scored and 2.36 conceded.
Defensively: Hangzhou Greentown have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 11 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hangzhou Greentown
Blended
Guangzhou R&F
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hangzhou Greentown and Guangzhou R&F in coming into this match?
Hangzhou Greentown have gone 4W 4D 3L in their last 11 games (1.45 PPG), while Guangzhou R&F have gone 1W 1D 9L in their last 11 (0.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hangzhou Greentown at home or Guangzhou R&F away?
Hangzhou Greentown's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hangzhou Greentown at home: 1.60 PPG; Guangzhou R&F away: 0.20 PPG.
Have Hangzhou Greentown or Guangzhou R&F been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hangzhou Greentown have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their recent games, Guangzhou R&F in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since June 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 July 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Hangzhou Greentown
0
Draws
0
Guangzhou R&F
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hangzhou Greentown and Guangzhou R&F?
From 2 meetings on record, Hangzhou Greentown have won 2, Guangzhou R&F have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Hangzhou Greentown and Guangzhou R&F last play each other?
They last met on 10 July 2022, when Hangzhou Greentown 2-0 Guangzhou R&F.
Who has won more matches between Hangzhou Greentown and Guangzhou R&F?
Hangzhou Greentown have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Hangzhou Greentown tend to start slowly — only 20% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Guangzhou R&F are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 0% (Hangzhou Greentown) and 60% (Guangzhou R&F) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 0% for Hangzhou Greentown and 40% for Guangzhou R&F.
On the defensive side: Hangzhou Greentown keep a clean sheet in 80% of their matches; Hangzhou Greentown have failed to score in 60% of games; Guangzhou R&F in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hangzhou Greentown home games / Guangzhou R&F away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hangzhou Greentown play Guangzhou R&F?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Hangzhou Greentown's recent matches and 60% of Guangzhou R&F's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hangzhou Greentown vs Guangzhou R&F usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Hangzhou Greentown's recent games and 40% of Guangzhou R&F's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hangzhou Greentown and Guangzhou R&F tend to score early?
Hangzhou Greentown have had a goal before half-time in 20% of their recent matches, Guangzhou R&F in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Hangzhou Greentown cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Guangzhou R&F.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hangzhou Greentown beat Guangzhou R&F 2-0 at Wuyuan River Stadium Field 2, Regular Season - 10, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hangzhou Greentown 1.41 xG and Guangzhou R&F 0.66 xG, a combined 2.07. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hangzhou Greentown attack 0.82 / defence 0.73 against Guangzhou R&F attack 0.78 / defence 1.24, drawn from 9/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hangzhou Greentown 54% | Draw 29% | Guangzhou R&F 16%, with Hangzhou Greentown to win its most likely call at 54%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hangzhou Greentown 18%, Guangzhou R&F 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hangzhou Greentown's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and duly kept one.
Guangzhou R&F's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 46% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Hangzhou Greentown arrived the stronger side — 1.45 PPG against 0.36. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Hangzhou Greentown (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.80 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.