Hangzhou Greentown 0-0 Beijing Guoan – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hangzhou Greentown at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hangzhou Greentown vs Beijing Guoan fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Beijing Guoan make the trip to Hangzhou Dragon Stadium to face Hangzhou Greentown in Super League, Regular Season - 6. The match kicks off on Friday 17 April 2026 at 12:00 UTC.
Form
Hangzhou Greentown (all games): 2W 7D 1L across 10 Super League fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D D D L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Hangzhou Greentown have posted 3W 6D 1L at Hangzhou Dragon Stadium — 1.50 PPG. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Beijing Guoan have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 5W 0D 5L. Last five: W L L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Beijing Guoan have gone 5W 1D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.30 vs 1.50 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 8 head-to-head meetings have produced 3 wins for Hangzhou Greentown, 3 for Beijing Guoan and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 8 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Aug 2025, ended 3–4 with Beijing Guoan winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Hangzhou Greentown goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 58%.
Beijing Guoan goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; they lead at the break 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Hangzhou Greentown 67% and Beijing Guoan 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Hangzhou Greentown 77% | Beijing Guoan 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hangzhou Greentown 1.40 xG and Beijing Guoan 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hangzhou Greentown attack 0.853 / defence 0.958 | Beijing Guoan attack 1.091 / defence 0.908. League average goals — home 1.802 / away 1.139. Data: 35 Hangzhou Greentown games / 35 Beijing Guoan games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hangzhou Greentown 42% | Draw 26% | Beijing Guoan 32%. Fair-value odds: Hangzhou Greentown 2.38 | Draw 3.85 | Beijing Guoan 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Hangzhou Greentown are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Hangzhou Greentown if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.58 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.8 goals per game and H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Hangzhou Greentown 80% | Beijing Guoan 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hangzhou Greentown vs Beijing Guoan | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Hangzhou Dragon Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 17 Apr 2026, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hangzhou Greentown 42% | Draw 26% | Beijing Guoan 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 52% | xG Hangzhou Greentown 1.40 / Beijing Guoan 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Hangzhou Greentown attack 0.853 / def 0.958 | Beijing Guoan attack 1.091 / def 0.908 | league avg home 1.802 / away 1.139 • Poisson stance: Hangzhou Greentown (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Hangzhou Greentown xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Beijing Guoan xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hangzhou Greentown vs Beijing Guoan kick off?
Hangzhou Greentown vs Beijing Guoan kicked off at 12:00 on Friday 17 April 2026 at Hangzhou Dragon Stadium.
What was the final score in Hangzhou Greentown vs Beijing Guoan?
Hangzhou Greentown 0 - 0 Beijing Guoan.
Where is Hangzhou Greentown vs Beijing Guoan being played?
The match is being played at Hangzhou Dragon Stadium.
What competition is Hangzhou Greentown vs Beijing Guoan part of?
Hangzhou Greentown vs Beijing Guoan is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Hangzhou Greentown vs Beijing Guoan?
Our statistical model gives Hangzhou Greentown a 42% chance of winning, Beijing Guoan a 32% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Hangzhou Greentown the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hangzhou Greentown vs Beijing Guoan?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Hangzhou Greentown and Beijing Guoan will score (BTTS).
Will Hangzhou Greentown vs Beijing Guoan have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hangzhou Greentown and Beijing Guoan?
Record (8 meetings): Hangzhou Greentown 3W | Draws 2 | Beijing Guoan 3W.
What form are Hangzhou Greentown and Beijing Guoan in?
Hangzhou Greentown (all comps): 2W-7D-1L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-D-D-L-D. Beijing Guoan (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Hangzhou Greentown's attack at 0.85x the league average against Beijing Guoan's defence at 0.91x — combine the two and it projects 1.40 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Beijing Guoan's attack (1.09x) against Hangzhou Greentown's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 1.19.
These ratings are built from 35/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.2%), 1-0 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hangzhou Greentown Win
42%
2.40
26%
3.80
32%
3.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Hangzhou Greentown xG
Total xG
2.58
1.19
Beijing Guoan xG
2.40
42%
Home win
3.80
26%
Draw
3.12
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
30%
3.29
25%
4.03
Win to Nil
13%
7.89
8%
12.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 9.0 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 12.5 | 7.4 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 8.7 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.1 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hangzhou Greentown vs Beijing Guoan?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Hangzhou Greentown and Beijing Guoan expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Hangzhou Greentown and 1.19 for Beijing Guoan, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Hangzhou Greentown vs Beijing Guoan?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Hangzhou Greentown's recent record stands at 21W 17D 22L from 60 games, a 1.33 PPG return, with D-D-D-L-D in the last five.
Beijing Guoan, meanwhile, have gone 33W 14D 13L across 60 games — 1.88 PPG, with W-L-L-W-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Beijing Guoan by 0.55 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Hangzhou Greentown heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Hangzhou Greentown have managed 14W 11D 5L from 30 games — 1.77 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.33 PPG overall — Hangzhou Greentown are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Beijing Guoan's away record stands at 13W 9D 8L across 30 trips, a 1.60 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Hangzhou Greentown are averaging 1.92 goals scored and 1.85 conceded per game recently; Beijing Guoan are on 2.23 scored and 1.35 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Hangzhou Greentown have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; Beijing Guoan in 65%.
Last 60 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hangzhou Greentown
Current Season
Beijing Guoan
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hangzhou Greentown and Beijing Guoan in coming into this match?
Hangzhou Greentown have gone 21W 17D 22L in their last 60 games (1.33 PPG), while Beijing Guoan have gone 33W 14D 13L in their last 60 (1.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hangzhou Greentown at home or Beijing Guoan away?
Hangzhou Greentown's home record (1.77 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hangzhou Greentown at home: 1.77 PPG; Beijing Guoan away: 1.60 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since September 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 1 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Hangzhou Greentown have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Beijing Guoan — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Hangzhou Greentown
3
Draws
4
Beijing Guoan
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hangzhou Greentown and Beijing Guoan?
From 10 meetings on record, Hangzhou Greentown have won 3, Beijing Guoan have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Hangzhou Greentown and Beijing Guoan last play each other?
They last met on 1 August 2026, when Beijing Guoan 2-1 Hangzhou Greentown.
Who has won more matches between Hangzhou Greentown and Beijing Guoan?
Beijing Guoan have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Hangzhou Greentown are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Beijing Guoan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 80% for Hangzhou Greentown, 60% for Beijing Guoan — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 83% for Hangzhou Greentown and 60% for Beijing Guoan. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 70% and 47% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hangzhou Greentown home games / Beijing Guoan away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hangzhou Greentown play Beijing Guoan?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of Hangzhou Greentown's games and 60% of Beijing Guoan's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hangzhou Greentown vs Beijing Guoan usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 83% of Hangzhou Greentown's matches and 60% of Beijing Guoan's.
Do Hangzhou Greentown and Beijing Guoan tend to score early?
Hangzhou Greentown have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, Beijing Guoan in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Hangzhou Greentown's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Hangzhou Dragon Stadium, Regular Season - 6, as Hangzhou Greentown and Beijing Guoan drew 0-0 in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hangzhou Greentown 1.40 xG and Beijing Guoan 1.19 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Hangzhou Greentown fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Beijing Guoan landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hangzhou Greentown attack 0.85 / defence 0.96 against Beijing Guoan attack 1.09 / defence 0.91, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hangzhou Greentown 42% | Draw 26% | Beijing Guoan 32%, with Hangzhou Greentown to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 72% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hangzhou Greentown 77%, Beijing Guoan 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hangzhou Greentown's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Beijing Guoan's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Beijing Guoan arrived the stronger side — 1.88 PPG against 1.33. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Hangzhou Greentown (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.40 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line. Beijing Guoan (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.77 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.53 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.