Guangzhou R&F 2-4 Shenzhen Ruby FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Guangzhou R&F at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Guangzhou R&F vs Shenzhen Ruby FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League encounter, Regular Season - 4 sees Shenzhen Ruby FC travel to Yuexiushan Stadium to take on Guangzhou R&F. The game is scheduled for Saturday 8 May 2021, 13:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Guangzhou R&F 1.33 xG and Shenzhen Ruby FC 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Guangzhou R&F attack 1.262 / defence 1.138 | Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 0.809 / defence 1.270. League average goals — home 0.831 / away 1.121. Guangzhou R&F carry an above-average attack strength of 1.262 — their λ of 1.33 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Shenzhen Ruby FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.270 — this is suppressing Guangzhou R&F's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 3 Guangzhou R&F games / 3 Shenzhen Ruby FC games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Guangzhou R&F 40% | Draw 35% | Shenzhen Ruby FC 25%. Fair-value odds: Guangzhou R&F 2.50 | Draw 2.86 | Shenzhen Ruby FC 4.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Guangzhou R&F are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 35% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Guangzhou R&F offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.37 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (3 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Guangzhou R&F vs Shenzhen Ruby FC | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Yuexiushan Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 8 May 2021, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Guangzhou R&F 40% | Draw 35% | Shenzhen Ruby FC 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 51% | xG Guangzhou R&F 1.33 / Shenzhen Ruby FC 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Guangzhou R&F attack 1.262 / def 1.138 | Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 0.809 / def 1.270 | league avg home 0.831 / away 1.121 • Poisson stance: Guangzhou R&F (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Guangzhou R&F xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Shenzhen Ruby FC xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Guangzhou R&F vs Shenzhen Ruby FC kick off?
Guangzhou R&F vs Shenzhen Ruby FC kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 8 May 2021 at Yuexiushan Stadium.
What was the final score in Guangzhou R&F vs Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Guangzhou R&F 2 - 4 Shenzhen Ruby FC.
Where is Guangzhou R&F vs Shenzhen Ruby FC being played?
The match is being played at Yuexiushan Stadium.
What competition is Guangzhou R&F vs Shenzhen Ruby FC part of?
Guangzhou R&F vs Shenzhen Ruby FC is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Guangzhou R&F vs Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Our statistical model gives Guangzhou R&F a 40% chance of winning, Shenzhen Ruby FC a 25% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Guangzhou R&F the favourite.
Will both teams score in Guangzhou R&F vs Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Guangzhou R&F and Shenzhen Ruby FC will score (BTTS).
Will Guangzhou R&F vs Shenzhen Ruby FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Guangzhou R&F and Shenzhen Ruby FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Guangzhou R&F and Shenzhen Ruby FC in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Guangzhou R&F's attack rating (1.26) and Shenzhen Ruby FC's defence rating (1.27), the model arrives at 1.33 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Shenzhen Ruby FC's attack versus Guangzhou R&F's defence, projects 1.03 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (3/3 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.1%), 1-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Guangzhou R&F Win
40%
2.52
35%
2.84
25%
3.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
0 – 1
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Guangzhou R&F xG
Total xG
2.37
1.03
Shenzhen Ruby FC xG
2.52
40%
Home win
2.84
35%
Draw
3.99
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
36%
2.81
26%
3.79
Win to Nil
14%
7.07
7%
15.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.4 | 9.7 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.5 | 12.9 | 6.7 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 8.6 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 3.8 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Guangzhou R&F vs Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Guangzhou R&F and Shenzhen Ruby FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Guangzhou R&F and 1.03 for Shenzhen Ruby FC, a combined total of 2.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Guangzhou R&F vs Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Guangzhou R&F
Pre-Season
Shenzhen Ruby FC
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 December 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Dec 2022, when Guangzhou R&F won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Guangzhou R&F's record when hosting Shenzhen Ruby FC specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Guangzhou R&F
1
Draws
1
Shenzhen Ruby FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Guangzhou R&F and Shenzhen Ruby FC?
From 4 meetings on record, Guangzhou R&F have won 2, Shenzhen Ruby FC have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Guangzhou R&F and Shenzhen Ruby FC last play each other?
They last met on 27 December 2022, when Shenzhen Ruby FC 0-3 Guangzhou R&F.
Who has won more matches between Guangzhou R&F and Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Guangzhou R&F have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Guangzhou R&F home games / Shenzhen Ruby FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shenzhen Ruby FC cruise to a comfortable 2-4 victory over Guangzhou R&F.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shenzhen Ruby FC beat Guangzhou R&F 2-4 at Yuexiushan Stadium, Regular Season - 4, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Guangzhou R&F 1.33 xG and Shenzhen Ruby FC 1.03 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 2-4 for 6 actual goals. Shenzhen Ruby FC outscored their 1.03 projection by 3.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Guangzhou R&F attack 1.26 / defence 1.14 against Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 0.81 / defence 1.27, drawn from 3/3 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Guangzhou R&F 40% | Draw 35% | Shenzhen Ruby FC 25%, with Guangzhou R&F to win its most likely call at 40%. Instead the game produced a Shenzhen Ruby FC win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.