Dalian Zhixing vs Qingdao Jonoon – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Dalian Zhixing at 62% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Dalian Zhixing vs Qingdao Jonoon encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium plays host to Dalian Zhixing versus Qingdao Jonoon in Super League, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off: Saturday 5 September 2026 at 11:35 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Dalian Zhixing have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: W L D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Dalian Zhixing, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium, Dalian Zhixing have gone 6W 1D 3L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Qingdao Jonoon's overall Super League record this term: 1W 1D 8L from 10 games (0.40 PPG). Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.60 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Qingdao Jonoon, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Qingdao Jonoon away from home this season: 1W 0D 9L from 10 away games — 0.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The points-per-game gap of 1.10 in Dalian Zhixing's favour (1.50 vs 0.40) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Dalian Zhixing register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Qingdao Jonoon in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Dalian Zhixing 1W, Qingdao Jonoon 1W, 1D.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 May 2026, ended 1–3 with Qingdao Jonoon winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Dalian Zhixing — key trading statistics (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games).
Qingdao Jonoon — key trading statistics (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dalian Zhixing 51% versus Qingdao Jonoon 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dalian Zhixing 44% | Qingdao Jonoon 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dalian Zhixing 2.27 xG and Qingdao Jonoon 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dalian Zhixing attack 0.992 / defence 0.911 | Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.899 / defence 1.336. League average goals — home 1.713 / away 1.404. Qingdao Jonoon bring a strong defensive rating of 1.336 — this is suppressing Dalian Zhixing's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 55 Dalian Zhixing games / 55 Qingdao Jonoon games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dalian Zhixing 62% | Draw 20% | Qingdao Jonoon 18%. Fair-value odds: Dalian Zhixing 1.61 | Draw 5.00 | Qingdao Jonoon 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Dalian Zhixing (62%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.42. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.42 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (2.27 / 1.15) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Dalian Zhixing at 62% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.42 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 66% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Dalian Zhixing 70% | Qingdao Jonoon 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dalian Zhixing vs Qingdao Jonoon | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Sep 2026, 11:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dalian Zhixing 62% | Draw 20% | Qingdao Jonoon 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 62% | xG Dalian Zhixing 2.27 / Qingdao Jonoon 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Dalian Zhixing attack 0.992 / def 0.911 | Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.899 / def 1.336 | league avg home 1.713 / away 1.404 • Poisson stance: Dalian Zhixing (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.27
Dalian Zhixing xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Qingdao Jonoon xG
62%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dalian Zhixing vs Qingdao Jonoon kick off?
Dalian Zhixing vs Qingdao Jonoon is scheduled to kick off at 11:35 on Saturday 5 September 2026 at Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium.
Where is Dalian Zhixing vs Qingdao Jonoon being played?
The match is being played at Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium.
What competition is Dalian Zhixing vs Qingdao Jonoon part of?
Dalian Zhixing vs Qingdao Jonoon is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Dalian Zhixing vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Our statistical model gives Dalian Zhixing a 62% chance of winning, Qingdao Jonoon a 18% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Dalian Zhixing the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dalian Zhixing vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Dalian Zhixing and Qingdao Jonoon will score (BTTS).
Will Dalian Zhixing vs Qingdao Jonoon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dalian Zhixing and Qingdao Jonoon?
Record (3 meetings): Dalian Zhixing 1W | Draws 1 | Qingdao Jonoon 1W.
What form are Dalian Zhixing and Qingdao Jonoon in?
Dalian Zhixing (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-D-W-D. Qingdao Jonoon (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.60 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Dalian Zhixing's attack rating (0.99) and Qingdao Jonoon's defence rating (1.34), the model arrives at 2.27 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Qingdao Jonoon's attack (0.90x) against Dalian Zhixing's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 1.15.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.7%. Close behind: 1-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Dalian Zhixing Win
62%
1.60
20%
5.05
18%
5.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.5%
Draw
2 – 0
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.27
Dalian Zhixing xG
Total xG
3.42
1.15
Qingdao Jonoon xG
1.60
62%
Home win
5.05
20%
Draw
5.60
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.63
38%
BTTS No
2.60
Clean Sheet
32%
3.16
10%
9.68
Win to Nil
20%
5.06
2%
54.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.3 | 3.8 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 8.5 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.7 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.4 | 7.3 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.6 | 4.2 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dalian Zhixing vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.7%.
How many goals are Dalian Zhixing and Qingdao Jonoon expected to score?
The model projects 2.27 expected goals for Dalian Zhixing and 1.15 for Qingdao Jonoon, a combined total of 3.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Dalian Zhixing vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Dalian Zhixing's recent record stands at 20W 13D 22L from 55 games, a 1.33 PPG return, with W-L-D-W-D in the last five. The sample for Dalian Zhixing is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Qingdao Jonoon, meanwhile, have gone 11W 13D 31L across 55 games — 0.84 PPG, with L-L-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Qingdao Jonoon is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Dalian Zhixing by 0.49 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Qingdao Jonoon heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Dalian Zhixing have managed 16W 3D 8L from 27 games — 1.89 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.33 PPG overall — Dalian Zhixing are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Qingdao Jonoon's away record stands at 2W 5D 20L across 27 trips, a 0.41 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 0.84 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Qingdao Jonoon's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dalian Zhixing come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Dalian Zhixing are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; Qingdao Jonoon are on 1.24 scored and 1.80 conceded.
Last 55 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dalian Zhixing
Blended
Qingdao Jonoon
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dalian Zhixing and Qingdao Jonoon in coming into this match?
Dalian Zhixing have gone 20W 13D 22L in their last 55 games (1.33 PPG), while Qingdao Jonoon have gone 11W 13D 31L in their last 55 (0.84 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dalian Zhixing at home or Qingdao Jonoon away?
Dalian Zhixing's home record (1.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dalian Zhixing at home: 1.89 PPG; Qingdao Jonoon away: 0.41 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 3 times since April 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 10 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Last 3 Meetings
1
Dalian Zhixing
1
Draws
1
Qingdao Jonoon
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dalian Zhixing and Qingdao Jonoon?
From 3 meetings on record, Dalian Zhixing have won 1, Qingdao Jonoon have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Dalian Zhixing and Qingdao Jonoon last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Qingdao Jonoon 3-1 Dalian Zhixing.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Dalian Zhixing are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Qingdao Jonoon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dalian Zhixing 37%, Qingdao Jonoon 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 37% (Dalian Zhixing) and 59% (Qingdao Jonoon).
On the defensive side: Dalian Zhixing keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Qingdao Jonoon in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dalian Zhixing home games / Qingdao Jonoon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dalian Zhixing play Qingdao Jonoon?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 37% of Dalian Zhixing's recent matches and 63% of Qingdao Jonoon's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Dalian Zhixing vs Qingdao Jonoon usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of Dalian Zhixing's recent games and 59% of Qingdao Jonoon's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dalian Zhixing and Qingdao Jonoon tend to score early?
Dalian Zhixing have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Qingdao Jonoon in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.