Dalian Zhixing 1-0 Meizhou Kejia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Dalian Zhixing at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Dalian Zhixing vs Meizhou Kejia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Meizhou Kejia make the trip to Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium to face Dalian Zhixing in Super League, Regular Season - 14. The match kicks off on Friday 13 June 2025 at 12:35 UTC.
Form
Meizhou Kejia have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: L L D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Meizhou Kejia's away record: 1W 2D 7L from 10 road trips in Super League this season (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dalian Zhixing 1.45 xG and Meizhou Kejia 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dalian Zhixing attack 0.763 / defence 1.084 | Meizhou Kejia attack 0.859 / defence 1.136. League average goals — home 1.673 / away 1.443. Dalian Zhixing's attack strength of 0.763 is below the league average — the 1.45 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 13 Dalian Zhixing games / 43 Meizhou Kejia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dalian Zhixing 39% | Draw 28% | Meizhou Kejia 34%. Fair-value odds: Dalian Zhixing 2.56 | Draw 3.57 | Meizhou Kejia 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Dalian Zhixing as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Dalian Zhixing if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.79 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dalian Zhixing vs Meizhou Kejia | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 13 Jun 2025, 12:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dalian Zhixing 39% | Draw 28% | Meizhou Kejia 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 58% | xG Dalian Zhixing 1.45 / Meizhou Kejia 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Dalian Zhixing attack 0.763 / def 1.084 | Meizhou Kejia attack 0.859 / def 1.136 | league avg home 1.673 / away 1.443 • Poisson stance: Dalian Zhixing (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Dalian Zhixing xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Meizhou Kejia xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dalian Zhixing vs Meizhou Kejia kick off?
Dalian Zhixing vs Meizhou Kejia kicked off at 12:35 on Friday 13 June 2025 at Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium.
What was the final score in Dalian Zhixing vs Meizhou Kejia?
Dalian Zhixing 1 - 0 Meizhou Kejia.
Where is Dalian Zhixing vs Meizhou Kejia being played?
The match is being played at Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium.
What competition is Dalian Zhixing vs Meizhou Kejia part of?
Dalian Zhixing vs Meizhou Kejia is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Dalian Zhixing vs Meizhou Kejia?
Our statistical model gives Dalian Zhixing a 39% chance of winning, Meizhou Kejia a 34% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Dalian Zhixing the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dalian Zhixing vs Meizhou Kejia?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Dalian Zhixing and Meizhou Kejia will score (BTTS).
Will Dalian Zhixing vs Meizhou Kejia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dalian Zhixing and Meizhou Kejia?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Dalian Zhixing and Meizhou Kejia in?
Meizhou Kejia (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-D-W-L. Meizhou Kejia away split: 0.50 PPG from 10 | GF 1.00 / GA 2.70 | CS 2.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Dalian Zhixing's attacking strength (0.76x league average) is weighed against Meizhou Kejia's defensive record (1.14x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.45. Flip it around — Meizhou Kejia's attack (0.86x) against Dalian Zhixing's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 1.34.
These ratings are built from 13/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dalian Zhixing Win
39%
2.59
28%
3.62
34%
2.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
Dalian Zhixing xG
Total xG
2.79
1.34
Meizhou Kejia xG
2.59
39%
Home win
3.62
28%
Draw
2.96
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.37
Clean Sheet
26%
3.83
23%
4.26
Win to Nil
10%
9.93
8%
12.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 8.2 | 5.5 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 11.9 | 8.0 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 8.6 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.2 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dalian Zhixing vs Meizhou Kejia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Dalian Zhixing and Meizhou Kejia expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Dalian Zhixing and 1.34 for Meizhou Kejia, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Dalian Zhixing vs Meizhou Kejia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dalian Zhixing
Pre-Season
Meizhou Kejia
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since June 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 1 November 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Dalian Zhixing
1
Draws
0
Meizhou Kejia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dalian Zhixing and Meizhou Kejia?
From 2 meetings on record, Dalian Zhixing have won 1, Meizhou Kejia have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Dalian Zhixing and Meizhou Kejia last play each other?
They last met on 1 November 2025, when Meizhou Kejia 2-2 Dalian Zhixing.
Who has won more matches between Dalian Zhixing and Meizhou Kejia?
Dalian Zhixing have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dalian Zhixing home games / Meizhou Kejia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Dalian Zhixing edge out Meizhou Kejia 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dalian Zhixing beat Meizhou Kejia 1-0 at Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium, Regular Season - 14, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dalian Zhixing 1.45 xG and Meizhou Kejia 1.34 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Meizhou Kejia landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dalian Zhixing attack 0.76 / defence 1.08 against Meizhou Kejia attack 0.86 / defence 1.14, drawn from 13/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dalian Zhixing 39% | Draw 28% | Meizhou Kejia 34%, with Dalian Zhixing to win its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.