Dalian Aerbin 5-1 Shenzhen Ruby FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Dalian Aerbin at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this Dalian Aerbin vs Shenzhen Ruby FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Shenzhen Ruby FC make the trip to Puwan Stadium to face Dalian Aerbin in Super League, Regular Season - 12. The match kicks off on Thursday 1 September 2022 at 12:30 UTC.
Form
Dalian Aerbin (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Super League fixtures this term — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D W D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Dalian Aerbin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Dalian Aerbin have posted 3W 3D 4L at Puwan Stadium — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Shenzhen Ruby FC's overall Super League record this term: 2W 1D 7L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: W L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Shenzhen Ruby FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Shenzhen Ruby FC's form when playing away from home: 3W 1D 6L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.90 PPG for Dalian Aerbin against 0.70 for Shenzhen Ruby FC. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading
Dalian Aerbin half-time and goal-timing data (36 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Shenzhen Ruby FC half-time and goal-timing data (36 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 76% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dalian Aerbin 47% versus Shenzhen Ruby FC 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dalian Aerbin 44% | Shenzhen Ruby FC 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dalian Aerbin 2.05 xG and Shenzhen Ruby FC 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dalian Aerbin attack 0.966 / defence 0.997 | Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 0.940 / defence 1.526. League average goals — home 1.393 / away 1.281. Shenzhen Ruby FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.526 — this is suppressing Dalian Aerbin's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 28 Dalian Aerbin games / 28 Shenzhen Ruby FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dalian Aerbin 56% | Draw 23% | Shenzhen Ruby FC 21%. Fair-value odds: Dalian Aerbin 1.79 | Draw 4.35 | Shenzhen Ruby FC 4.76. The model has a clear lean to Dalian Aerbin (56%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.25. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.25 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (2.05 / 1.20) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Dalian Aerbin are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.25 combined xG gives a 63% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate: Dalian Aerbin 50% | Shenzhen Ruby FC 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dalian Aerbin vs Shenzhen Ruby FC | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Puwan Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 1 Sep 2022, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dalian Aerbin 56% | Draw 23% | Shenzhen Ruby FC 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 62% | xG Dalian Aerbin 2.05 / Shenzhen Ruby FC 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Dalian Aerbin attack 0.966 / def 0.997 | Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 0.940 / def 1.526 | league avg home 1.393 / away 1.281 • Poisson stance: Dalian Aerbin (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.05
Dalian Aerbin xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Shenzhen Ruby FC xG
62%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dalian Aerbin vs Shenzhen Ruby FC kick off?
Dalian Aerbin vs Shenzhen Ruby FC kicked off at 12:30 on Thursday 1 September 2022 at Puwan Stadium.
What was the final score in Dalian Aerbin vs Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Dalian Aerbin 5 - 1 Shenzhen Ruby FC.
Where is Dalian Aerbin vs Shenzhen Ruby FC being played?
The match is being played at Puwan Stadium.
What competition is Dalian Aerbin vs Shenzhen Ruby FC part of?
Dalian Aerbin vs Shenzhen Ruby FC is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Dalian Aerbin vs Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Our statistical model gives Dalian Aerbin a 56% chance of winning, Shenzhen Ruby FC a 21% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Dalian Aerbin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dalian Aerbin vs Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Dalian Aerbin and Shenzhen Ruby FC will score (BTTS).
Will Dalian Aerbin vs Shenzhen Ruby FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dalian Aerbin and Shenzhen Ruby FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Dalian Aerbin and Shenzhen Ruby FC in?
Dalian Aerbin (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-W-D-L. Shenzhen Ruby FC (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.50 | L5 W-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Dalian Aerbin's attack at 0.97x the league average against Shenzhen Ruby FC's defence at 1.53x — combine the two and it projects 2.05 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Shenzhen Ruby FC's attack (0.94x) against Dalian Aerbin's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 1.20.
These ratings are built from 28/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Dalian Aerbin Win
56%
1.78
23%
4.36
21%
4.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.5%
Draw
2 – 0
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.05
Dalian Aerbin xG
Total xG
3.25
1.20
Shenzhen Ruby FC xG
1.78
56%
Home win
4.36
23%
Draw
4.78
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.62
Clean Sheet
30%
3.32
13%
7.80
Win to Nil
17%
5.92
3%
37.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 4.6 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 9.5 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.8 | 5.9 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 6.7 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.9 | 3.4 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dalian Aerbin vs Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.8%.
How many goals are Dalian Aerbin and Shenzhen Ruby FC expected to score?
The model projects 2.05 expected goals for Dalian Aerbin and 1.20 for Shenzhen Ruby FC, a combined total of 3.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Dalian Aerbin vs Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Dalian Aerbin's recent record stands at 9W 8D 19L from 36 games, a 0.97 PPG return, with L-D-W-D-L in the last five. The sample for Dalian Aerbin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Shenzhen Ruby FC, meanwhile, have gone 14W 6D 16L across 36 games — 1.33 PPG, with W-L-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Shenzhen Ruby FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.97 PPG for Dalian Aerbin against 1.33 for Shenzhen Ruby FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Dalian Aerbin have managed 5W 4D 8L from 17 games — 1.12 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Shenzhen Ruby FC's away record stands at 6W 3D 8L across 17 trips, a 1.24 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Dalian Aerbin are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; Shenzhen Ruby FC are on 1.39 scored and 1.58 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Shenzhen Ruby FC in 61%.
Last 36 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dalian Aerbin
Blended
Shenzhen Ruby FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dalian Aerbin and Shenzhen Ruby FC in coming into this match?
Dalian Aerbin have gone 9W 8D 19L in their last 36 games (0.97 PPG), while Shenzhen Ruby FC have gone 14W 6D 16L in their last 36 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dalian Aerbin at home or Shenzhen Ruby FC away?
Shenzhen Ruby FC's away record (1.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dalian Aerbin at home: 1.12 PPG; Shenzhen Ruby FC away: 1.24 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 13 August 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Dalian Aerbin won 5-1 on 1 Sep 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Dalian Aerbin have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Shenzhen Ruby FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Dalian Aerbin
0
Draws
1
Shenzhen Ruby FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dalian Aerbin and Shenzhen Ruby FC?
From 4 meetings on record, Dalian Aerbin have won 3, Shenzhen Ruby FC have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Dalian Aerbin and Shenzhen Ruby FC last play each other?
They last met on 13 August 2023, when Dalian Aerbin 2-1 Shenzhen Ruby FC.
Who has won more matches between Dalian Aerbin and Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Dalian Aerbin have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Dalian Aerbin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Shenzhen Ruby FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dalian Aerbin 47%, Shenzhen Ruby FC 76% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (Dalian Aerbin) and 76% (Shenzhen Ruby FC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 53% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Dalian Aerbin have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dalian Aerbin home games / Shenzhen Ruby FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dalian Aerbin play Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 47% of Dalian Aerbin's games and 76% of Shenzhen Ruby FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Dalian Aerbin vs Shenzhen Ruby FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 35% of Dalian Aerbin's matches and 76% of Shenzhen Ruby FC's.
Do Dalian Aerbin and Shenzhen Ruby FC tend to score early?
Dalian Aerbin have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Shenzhen Ruby FC in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Dalian Aerbin run riot with a 5-1 hammering of Shenzhen Ruby FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dalian Aerbin beat Shenzhen Ruby FC 5-1 at Puwan Stadium, Regular Season - 12, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dalian Aerbin 2.05 xG and Shenzhen Ruby FC 1.20 xG, a combined 3.25. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. Dalian Aerbin beat their projection by 2.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dalian Aerbin attack 0.97 / defence 1.00 against Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 0.94 / defence 1.53, drawn from 28/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dalian Aerbin 56% | Draw 23% | Shenzhen Ruby FC 21%, with Dalian Aerbin to win its most likely call at 56%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dalian Aerbin 44%, Shenzhen Ruby FC 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dalian Aerbin's trading profile (36 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Shenzhen Ruby FC's trading profile (36 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Dalian Aerbin 0.97 PPG, Shenzhen Ruby FC 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Dalian Aerbin win broke the near-deadlock. Dalian Aerbin (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm. Shenzhen Ruby FC (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 2.06 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.