Dalian Aerbin 1-2 Changchun Yatai – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Changchun Yatai at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Dalian Aerbin vs Changchun Yatai fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League clash, Regular Season - 1 as Dalian Aerbin welcome Changchun Yatai to Jiangyin Sports Park Stadium. Kick-off is set for Thursday 22 April 2021 at 11:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dalian Aerbin 0.87 xG and Changchun Yatai 1.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dalian Aerbin attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Changchun Yatai attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 0.888 / away 1.785. Data: 0 Dalian Aerbin games / 0 Changchun Yatai games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Dalian Aerbin 15% | Draw 30% | Changchun Yatai 55%. Fair-value odds: Dalian Aerbin 6.67 | Draw 3.33 | Changchun Yatai 1.82. The model has a clear lean to Changchun Yatai (55%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Changchun Yatai as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 30% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.61 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dalian Aerbin vs Changchun Yatai | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Jiangyin Sports Park Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 22 Apr 2021, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dalian Aerbin 15% | Draw 30% | Changchun Yatai 55% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 51% | xG Dalian Aerbin 0.87 / Changchun Yatai 1.75 • Poisson strength factors: Dalian Aerbin attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Changchun Yatai attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 0.888 / away 1.785 • Poisson stance: Changchun Yatai (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.87
Dalian Aerbin xG
Expected Goals
1.75
Changchun Yatai xG
51%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dalian Aerbin vs Changchun Yatai kick off?
Dalian Aerbin vs Changchun Yatai kicked off at 11:00 on Thursday 22 April 2021 at Jiangyin Sports Park Stadium.
What was the final score in Dalian Aerbin vs Changchun Yatai?
Dalian Aerbin 1 - 2 Changchun Yatai.
Where is Dalian Aerbin vs Changchun Yatai being played?
The match is being played at Jiangyin Sports Park Stadium.
What competition is Dalian Aerbin vs Changchun Yatai part of?
Dalian Aerbin vs Changchun Yatai is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Dalian Aerbin vs Changchun Yatai?
Our statistical model gives Dalian Aerbin a 15% chance of winning, Changchun Yatai a 55% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Changchun Yatai the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dalian Aerbin vs Changchun Yatai?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Dalian Aerbin and Changchun Yatai will score (BTTS).
Will Dalian Aerbin vs Changchun Yatai have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dalian Aerbin and Changchun Yatai?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Dalian Aerbin and Changchun Yatai in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Dalian Aerbin's attack at 0.85x the league average against Changchun Yatai's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 0.87 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Changchun Yatai's attack versus Dalian Aerbin's defence, projects 1.75 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 0/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (11.3%), 0-2 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Changchun Yatai Win
15%
6.62
30%
3.32
55%
1.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.8%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
11.2%
Away win
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.87
Dalian Aerbin xG
Total xG
2.61
1.75
Changchun Yatai xG
6.62
15%
Home win
3.32
30%
Draw
1.82
55%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
17%
5.73
42%
2.38
Win to Nil
3%
37.89
23%
4.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 12.8 | 11.2 | 6.5 | 2.8 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 11.1 | 9.7 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 2.8 | 4.8 | 4.2 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dalian Aerbin vs Changchun Yatai?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Dalian Aerbin and Changchun Yatai expected to score?
The model projects 0.87 expected goals for Dalian Aerbin and 1.75 for Changchun Yatai, a combined total of 2.61.
How confident is the prediction model for Dalian Aerbin vs Changchun Yatai?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
Last 0 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dalian Aerbin
Pre-Season
Changchun Yatai
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 July 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Dalian Aerbin's record when hosting Changchun Yatai specifically: 0W 2D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Dalian Aerbin
3
Draws
3
Changchun Yatai
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dalian Aerbin and Changchun Yatai?
From 6 meetings on record, Dalian Aerbin have won 0, Changchun Yatai have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Dalian Aerbin and Changchun Yatai last play each other?
They last met on 16 July 2023, when Dalian Aerbin 0-0 Changchun Yatai.
Who has won more matches between Dalian Aerbin and Changchun Yatai?
Changchun Yatai have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dalian Aerbin home games / Changchun Yatai away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Changchun Yatai edge out Dalian Aerbin 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Changchun Yatai beat Dalian Aerbin 1-2 at Jiangyin Sports Park Stadium, Regular Season - 1, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dalian Aerbin 0.87 xG and Changchun Yatai 1.75 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dalian Aerbin attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Changchun Yatai attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 0/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dalian Aerbin 15% | Draw 30% | Changchun Yatai 55%, with Changchun Yatai to win its most likely call at 55%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.