Changchun Yatai 1-1 Shandong Luneng – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Shandong Luneng at 35% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Changchun Yatai vs Shandong Luneng encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Changchun Yatai and Shandong Luneng meet at Tianhe Stadium in Super League, Championship Round - 8. This fixture gets under way on Tuesday 4 January 2022 at 07:30 UTC.
Current Form
Changchun Yatai's overall Super League record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: L L W W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Changchun Yatai, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Changchun Yatai's home record at Tianhe Stadium: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Super League appearances (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Tianhe Stadium. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Changchun Yatai are significantly better at Tianhe Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Shandong Luneng (all games): 8W 2D 0L across 10 Super League outings this term — 2.60 points per game. Last five: W W W D D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Shandong Luneng, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Super League this season, Shandong Luneng have posted 6W 3D 1L from 10 away outings — 2.10 PPG. They are averaging 2.40 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 2.10 is notably below their overall 2.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Shandong Luneng are 1.00 PPG clear of Changchun Yatai in recent Super League fixtures (2.60 vs 1.60). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Changchun Yatai, 1 for Shandong Luneng and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Dec 2021, ended 1–2 with Shandong Luneng winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Changchun Yatai goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games).
Shandong Luneng goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; they lead at the break 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Changchun Yatai 52% versus Shandong Luneng 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Changchun Yatai 52% | Shandong Luneng 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Changchun Yatai 1.34 xG and Shandong Luneng 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Changchun Yatai attack 1.094 / defence 1.000 | Shandong Luneng attack 1.048 / defence 1.061. League average goals — home 1.158 / away 1.286. Data: 14 Changchun Yatai games / 14 Shandong Luneng games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Changchun Yatai 35% | Draw 30% | Shandong Luneng 35%. Fair-value odds: Changchun Yatai 2.86 | Draw 3.33 | Shandong Luneng 2.86. The draw (30%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 30% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 35% and away win at 35% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 2.69 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 50% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Changchun Yatai 40% | Shandong Luneng 50%.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Changchun Yatai vs Shandong Luneng | Competition: Super League, Championship Round - 8 | Venue: Tianhe Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 4 Jan 2022, 07:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Changchun Yatai 35% | Draw 30% | Shandong Luneng 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 57% | xG Changchun Yatai 1.34 / Shandong Luneng 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: Changchun Yatai attack 1.094 / def 1.000 | Shandong Luneng attack 1.048 / def 1.061 | league avg home 1.158 / away 1.286 • Poisson stance: Draw (30%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Changchun Yatai xG
Expected Goals
1.35
Shandong Luneng xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Changchun Yatai vs Shandong Luneng kick off?
Changchun Yatai vs Shandong Luneng kicked off at 07:30 on Tuesday 4 January 2022 at Tianhe Stadium.
What was the final score in Changchun Yatai vs Shandong Luneng?
Changchun Yatai 1 - 1 Shandong Luneng.
Where is Changchun Yatai vs Shandong Luneng being played?
The match is being played at Tianhe Stadium.
What competition is Changchun Yatai vs Shandong Luneng part of?
Changchun Yatai vs Shandong Luneng is a Championship Round - 8 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Changchun Yatai vs Shandong Luneng?
Our statistical model gives Changchun Yatai a 35% chance of winning, Shandong Luneng a 35% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Changchun Yatai vs Shandong Luneng?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Changchun Yatai and Shandong Luneng will score (BTTS).
Will Changchun Yatai vs Shandong Luneng have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Changchun Yatai and Shandong Luneng?
Record (1 meetings): Changchun Yatai 0W | Draws 0 | Shandong Luneng 1W.
What form are Changchun Yatai and Shandong Luneng in?
Changchun Yatai (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-W-W-L. Shandong Luneng (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Changchun Yatai's attack rating (1.09) and Shandong Luneng's defence rating (1.06), the model arrives at 1.34 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Shandong Luneng's attack (1.05x) against Changchun Yatai's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 1.35.
These ratings are built from 14/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.4%), 1-2 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shandong Luneng Win
35%
2.86
30%
3.33
35%
2.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Changchun Yatai xG
Total xG
2.69
1.35
Shandong Luneng xG
2.86
35%
Home win
3.33
30%
Draw
2.85
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
26%
3.85
26%
3.84
Win to Nil
9%
11.01
9%
10.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 9.1 | 6.1 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 12.3 | 8.3 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 8.3 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.7 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Changchun Yatai vs Shandong Luneng?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Changchun Yatai and Shandong Luneng expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Changchun Yatai and 1.35 for Shandong Luneng, a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Changchun Yatai vs Shandong Luneng?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Changchun Yatai's recent record stands at 11W 5D 5L from 21 games, a 1.81 PPG return, with L-L-W-W-L in the last five. The sample for Changchun Yatai is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Shandong Luneng, meanwhile, have gone 15W 5D 1L across 21 games — 2.38 PPG, with W-W-W-D-D in their last five. The sample for Shandong Luneng is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Shandong Luneng by 0.57 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Changchun Yatai heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Changchun Yatai have managed 6W 3D 1L from 10 games — 2.10 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Shandong Luneng's away record stands at 6W 3D 1L across 10 trips, a 2.10 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Changchun Yatai are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game recently; Shandong Luneng are on 2.19 scored and 0.71 conceded. Shandong Luneng's attacking output running into Changchun Yatai's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
Defensively: Changchun Yatai have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games; Shandong Luneng in 48% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 21 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Changchun Yatai
Blended
Shandong Luneng
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Changchun Yatai and Shandong Luneng in coming into this match?
Changchun Yatai have gone 11W 5D 5L in their last 21 games (1.81 PPG), while Shandong Luneng have gone 15W 5D 1L in their last 21 (2.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Changchun Yatai at home or Shandong Luneng away?
Changchun Yatai's home record (2.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Changchun Yatai at home: 2.10 PPG; Shandong Luneng away: 2.10 PPG.
Have Changchun Yatai or Shandong Luneng been keeping clean sheets recently?
Changchun Yatai have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Shandong Luneng in 48%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 9 August 2025, roughly 12 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Shandong Luneng have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Shandong Luneng won 4-0 on 16 Jun 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Changchun Yatai have gone 0W 2D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Shandong Luneng — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Changchun Yatai
2
Draws
8
Shandong Luneng
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Changchun Yatai and Shandong Luneng?
From 10 meetings on record, Changchun Yatai have won 0, Shandong Luneng have won 8, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Changchun Yatai and Shandong Luneng last play each other?
They last met on 9 August 2025, when Shandong Luneng 2-1 Changchun Yatai.
Who has won more matches between Changchun Yatai and Shandong Luneng?
Shandong Luneng have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Changchun Yatai are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Shandong Luneng are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Changchun Yatai 40%, Shandong Luneng 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Changchun Yatai) and 50% (Shandong Luneng).
On the defensive side: Changchun Yatai keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Shandong Luneng in 50%; Changchun Yatai have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Changchun Yatai home games / Shandong Luneng away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Changchun Yatai play Shandong Luneng?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Changchun Yatai's recent matches and 50% of Shandong Luneng's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Changchun Yatai vs Shandong Luneng usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Changchun Yatai's recent games and 50% of Shandong Luneng's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Changchun Yatai and Shandong Luneng tend to score early?
Changchun Yatai have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Shandong Luneng in 90% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Changchun Yatai and Shandong Luneng share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Tianhe Stadium, Championship Round - 8, as Changchun Yatai and Shandong Luneng drew 1-1 in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Changchun Yatai 1.34 xG and Shandong Luneng 1.35 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Changchun Yatai attack 1.09 / defence 1.00 against Shandong Luneng attack 1.05 / defence 1.06, drawn from 14/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Changchun Yatai 35% | Draw 30% | Shandong Luneng 35%, with Changchun Yatai to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Changchun Yatai 52%, Shandong Luneng 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Changchun Yatai's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Shandong Luneng's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Shandong Luneng arrived the stronger side — 2.38 PPG against 1.81. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Shandong Luneng (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.40 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.