Changchun Yatai 3-2 Nantong Zhiyun – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Changchun Yatai (67%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Changchun Yatai face Nantong Zhiyun.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Changchun Sports Center Stadium plays host to Changchun Yatai versus Nantong Zhiyun in Super League, Regular Season - 25. Kick-off: Saturday 14 September 2024 at 12:35 UTC.
Current Form
Changchun Yatai's overall Super League record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L W L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Changchun Yatai, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Changchun Yatai at Changchun Sports Center Stadium this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Nantong Zhiyun have collected 0.50 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 1W 2D 7L. Last five: L L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 2.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Nantong Zhiyun, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Nantong Zhiyun's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 3.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The points-per-game gap of 0.60 in Changchun Yatai's favour (1.10 vs 0.50) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Changchun Yatai 2W, Nantong Zhiyun 0W, 1D.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 May 2024, ended 3–2 with Changchun Yatai winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Changchun Yatai goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (54 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
Nantong Zhiyun goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (54 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Changchun Yatai 59% versus Nantong Zhiyun 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Changchun Yatai 56% | Nantong Zhiyun 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Changchun Yatai 2.51 xG and Nantong Zhiyun 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Changchun Yatai attack 0.981 / defence 0.832 | Nantong Zhiyun attack 1.033 / defence 1.428. League average goals — home 1.794 / away 1.317. Nantong Zhiyun bring a strong defensive rating of 1.428 — this is suppressing Changchun Yatai's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 54 Changchun Yatai games / 54 Nantong Zhiyun games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Changchun Yatai 67% | Draw 17% | Nantong Zhiyun 15%. Fair-value odds: Changchun Yatai 1.49 | Draw 5.88 | Nantong Zhiyun 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Changchun Yatai (67%) — a 52pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.64. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.64 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (2.51 / 1.13) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Changchun Yatai at 67% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
The Poisson model projects 3.64 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 70% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.7 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Changchun Yatai 50% | Nantong Zhiyun 90% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Changchun Yatai vs Nantong Zhiyun | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Changchun Sports Center Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Sep 2024, 12:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Changchun Yatai 67% | Draw 17% | Nantong Zhiyun 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% | BTTS 62% | xG Changchun Yatai 2.51 / Nantong Zhiyun 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Changchun Yatai attack 0.981 / def 0.832 | Nantong Zhiyun attack 1.033 / def 1.428 | league avg home 1.794 / away 1.317 • Poisson stance: Changchun Yatai (67%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.51
Changchun Yatai xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Nantong Zhiyun xG
62%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
49%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Changchun Yatai vs Nantong Zhiyun kick off?
Changchun Yatai vs Nantong Zhiyun kicked off at 12:35 on Saturday 14 September 2024 at Changchun Sports Center Stadium.
What was the final score in Changchun Yatai vs Nantong Zhiyun?
Changchun Yatai 3 - 2 Nantong Zhiyun.
Where is Changchun Yatai vs Nantong Zhiyun being played?
The match is being played at Changchun Sports Center Stadium.
What competition is Changchun Yatai vs Nantong Zhiyun part of?
Changchun Yatai vs Nantong Zhiyun is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Changchun Yatai vs Nantong Zhiyun?
Our statistical model gives Changchun Yatai a 67% chance of winning, Nantong Zhiyun a 15% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making Changchun Yatai the favourite.
Will both teams score in Changchun Yatai vs Nantong Zhiyun?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Changchun Yatai and Nantong Zhiyun will score (BTTS).
Will Changchun Yatai vs Nantong Zhiyun have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%.
What is the head-to-head record between Changchun Yatai and Nantong Zhiyun?
Record (3 meetings): Changchun Yatai 2W | Draws 1 | Nantong Zhiyun 0W.
What form are Changchun Yatai and Nantong Zhiyun in?
Changchun Yatai (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-L-W-L. Nantong Zhiyun (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Changchun Yatai's attack at 0.98x the league average against Nantong Zhiyun's defence at 1.43x — combine the two and it projects 2.51 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Nantong Zhiyun's attack (1.03x) against Changchun Yatai's defence (0.83x) — and the away total comes out at 1.13.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (8.4%), 2-0 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Changchun Yatai Win
67%
1.48
17%
5.77
15%
6.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
8.3%
Home win
3 – 1
7.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.51
Changchun Yatai xG
Total xG
3.64
1.13
Nantong Zhiyun xG
1.48
67%
Home win
5.77
17%
Draw
6.55
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
49%
Over 3.5
2.04
51%
Under 3.5
1.96
30%
Over 4.5
3.33
70%
Under 4.5
1.43
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.65
Clean Sheet
32%
3.10
8%
12.33
Win to Nil
22%
4.60
1%
80.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.6 | 3.0 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 6.6 | 7.4 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.3 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.9 | 7.8 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.3 | 4.9 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 2.2 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Changchun Yatai vs Nantong Zhiyun?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.3%.
How many goals are Changchun Yatai and Nantong Zhiyun expected to score?
The model projects 2.51 expected goals for Changchun Yatai and 1.13 for Nantong Zhiyun, a combined total of 3.64.
How confident is the prediction model for Changchun Yatai vs Nantong Zhiyun?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 67%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Changchun Yatai come into this having played 54 games, going 16W 15D 23L for 1.17 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-W-L. The sample for Changchun Yatai is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Nantong Zhiyun sit at 0.69 PPG from 54 outings (7W 16D 31L), a run that reads L-L-D-L-L across their last five. The sample for Nantong Zhiyun is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Changchun Yatai carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.48 PPG clear of Nantong Zhiyun — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Changchun Yatai's home form reads 10W 8D 8L across 26 games on their own ground, a 1.46 PPG return.
Away from home, Nantong Zhiyun have taken 0.81 points per game from 26 outings (4W 9D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Changchun Yatai come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Changchun Yatai are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Nantong Zhiyun are on 0.91 scored and 1.80 conceded.
Last 54 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Changchun Yatai
Blended
Nantong Zhiyun
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Changchun Yatai and Nantong Zhiyun in coming into this match?
Changchun Yatai have gone 16W 15D 23L in their last 54 games (1.17 PPG), while Nantong Zhiyun have gone 7W 16D 31L in their last 54 (0.69 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Changchun Yatai at home or Nantong Zhiyun away?
Changchun Yatai's home record (1.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Changchun Yatai at home: 1.46 PPG; Nantong Zhiyun away: 0.81 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 14 September 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Changchun Yatai go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Changchun Yatai have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Nantong Zhiyun — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Changchun Yatai
1
Draws
0
Nantong Zhiyun
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Changchun Yatai and Nantong Zhiyun?
From 4 meetings on record, Changchun Yatai have won 3, Nantong Zhiyun have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Changchun Yatai and Nantong Zhiyun last play each other?
They last met on 14 September 2024, when Changchun Yatai 3-2 Nantong Zhiyun.
Who has won more matches between Changchun Yatai and Nantong Zhiyun?
Changchun Yatai have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Changchun Yatai are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Nantong Zhiyun are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 62% for Changchun Yatai, 73% for Nantong Zhiyun — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Changchun Yatai) and 46% (Nantong Zhiyun).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Changchun Yatai home games / Nantong Zhiyun away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Changchun Yatai play Nantong Zhiyun?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Changchun Yatai's games and 73% of Nantong Zhiyun's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Changchun Yatai vs Nantong Zhiyun usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Changchun Yatai's recent games and 46% of Nantong Zhiyun's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Changchun Yatai and Nantong Zhiyun tend to score early?
Changchun Yatai have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, Nantong Zhiyun in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Changchun Yatai edge out Nantong Zhiyun 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Changchun Yatai beat Nantong Zhiyun 3-2 at Changchun Sports Center Stadium, Regular Season - 25, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Changchun Yatai 2.51 xG and Nantong Zhiyun 1.13 xG, a combined 3.64. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Nantong Zhiyun outscored their 1.13 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Changchun Yatai attack 0.98 / defence 0.83 against Nantong Zhiyun attack 1.03 / defence 1.43, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Changchun Yatai 67% | Draw 17% | Nantong Zhiyun 15%, with Changchun Yatai to win its most likely call at 67%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 49% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Changchun Yatai 56%, Nantong Zhiyun 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Changchun Yatai's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Nantong Zhiyun's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Changchun Yatai arrived the stronger side — 1.17 PPG against 0.69. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Changchun Yatai (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.62 average — above their attacking norm. Nantong Zhiyun (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.