Changchun Yatai 1-2 Chengdu Better City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Chengdu Better City at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Changchun Yatai vs Chengdu Better City encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Changchun Sports Center Stadium plays host to Changchun Yatai versus Chengdu Better City in Super League, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off: Sunday 14 April 2024 at 08:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Changchun Yatai have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: D W L D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Changchun Yatai's home record at Changchun Sports Center Stadium: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Super League appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Changchun Yatai are significantly better at Changchun Sports Center Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Chengdu Better City's overall Super League record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: W D W W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Chengdu Better City away from home this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Chengdu Better City are 0.90 PPG clear of Changchun Yatai in recent Super League fixtures (2.00 vs 1.10). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Changchun Yatai have seen both teams score in 80% of their games, Chengdu Better City in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Changchun Yatai lead 1W to 1W over the last 4 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Aug 2023, ended 1–0 with Changchun Yatai winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Changchun Yatai half-time and goal-timing data (64 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
Chengdu Better City half-time and goal-timing data (64 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Changchun Yatai 56% versus Chengdu Better City 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Changchun Yatai 52% | Chengdu Better City 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Changchun Yatai 1.25 xG and Chengdu Better City 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Changchun Yatai attack 0.932 / defence 1.005 | Chengdu Better City attack 1.094 / defence 1.059. League average goals — home 1.266 / away 1.360. Data: 35 Changchun Yatai games / 35 Chengdu Better City games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Changchun Yatai 32% | Draw 25% | Chengdu Better City 43%. Fair-value odds: Changchun Yatai 3.12 | Draw 4.00 | Chengdu Better City 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Chengdu Better City at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Chengdu Better City if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.74 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Changchun Yatai 80% | Chengdu Better City 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Changchun Yatai vs Chengdu Better City | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Changchun Sports Center Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 14 Apr 2024, 08:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Changchun Yatai 32% | Draw 25% | Chengdu Better City 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 55% | xG Changchun Yatai 1.25 / Chengdu Better City 1.49 • Poisson strength factors: Changchun Yatai attack 0.932 / def 1.005 | Chengdu Better City attack 1.094 / def 1.059 | league avg home 1.266 / away 1.360 • Poisson stance: Chengdu Better City (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Changchun Yatai xG
Expected Goals
1.49
Chengdu Better City xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Changchun Yatai vs Chengdu Better City kick off?
Changchun Yatai vs Chengdu Better City kicked off at 08:30 on Sunday 14 April 2024 at Changchun Sports Center Stadium.
What was the final score in Changchun Yatai vs Chengdu Better City?
Changchun Yatai 1 - 2 Chengdu Better City.
Where is Changchun Yatai vs Chengdu Better City being played?
The match is being played at Changchun Sports Center Stadium.
What competition is Changchun Yatai vs Chengdu Better City part of?
Changchun Yatai vs Chengdu Better City is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Changchun Yatai vs Chengdu Better City?
Our statistical model gives Changchun Yatai a 32% chance of winning, Chengdu Better City a 43% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Chengdu Better City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Changchun Yatai vs Chengdu Better City?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Changchun Yatai and Chengdu Better City will score (BTTS).
Will Changchun Yatai vs Chengdu Better City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Changchun Yatai and Chengdu Better City?
Record (4 meetings): Changchun Yatai 1W | Draws 2 | Chengdu Better City 1W.
What form are Changchun Yatai and Chengdu Better City in?
Changchun Yatai (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-W-L-D-L. Chengdu Better City (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Changchun Yatai's attack rating (0.93) and Chengdu Better City's defence rating (1.06), the model arrives at 1.25 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Chengdu Better City's attack (1.09x) against Changchun Yatai's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 1.49.
These ratings are built from 35/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 0-1 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chengdu Better City Win
32%
3.15
25%
3.94
43%
2.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Changchun Yatai xG
Total xG
2.74
1.49
Chengdu Better City xG
3.15
32%
Home win
3.94
25%
Draw
2.33
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
22%
4.45
29%
3.49
Win to Nil
7%
14.03
12%
8.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 9.6 | 7.2 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 12.0 | 9.0 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 7.5 | 5.6 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.1 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Changchun Yatai vs Chengdu Better City?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Changchun Yatai and Chengdu Better City expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Changchun Yatai and 1.49 for Chengdu Better City, a combined total of 2.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Changchun Yatai vs Chengdu Better City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Changchun Yatai's recent record stands at 21W 20D 23L from 64 games, a 1.30 PPG return, with D-W-L-D-L in the last five.
Chengdu Better City, meanwhile, have gone 33W 19D 12L across 64 games — 1.84 PPG, with W-D-W-W-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Chengdu Better City by 0.54 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Changchun Yatai heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Changchun Yatai have managed 11W 10D 11L from 32 games — 1.34 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Chengdu Better City's away record stands at 15W 9D 8L across 32 trips, a 1.69 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Changchun Yatai are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; Chengdu Better City are on 1.56 scored and 0.94 conceded.
Defensively: Chengdu Better City in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 64 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Changchun Yatai
Current Season
Chengdu Better City
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Changchun Yatai and Chengdu Better City in coming into this match?
Changchun Yatai have gone 21W 20D 23L in their last 64 games (1.30 PPG), while Chengdu Better City have gone 33W 19D 12L in their last 64 (1.84 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Changchun Yatai at home or Chengdu Better City away?
Chengdu Better City's away record (1.69 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Changchun Yatai at home: 1.34 PPG; Chengdu Better City away: 1.69 PPG.
Have Changchun Yatai or Chengdu Better City been keeping clean sheets recently?
Changchun Yatai have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Chengdu Better City in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since September 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 12 September 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Chengdu Better City go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Chengdu Better City won 4-0 on 3 Aug 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Changchun Yatai have gone 1W 0D 3L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Chengdu Better City — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Changchun Yatai
2
Draws
5
Chengdu Better City
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Changchun Yatai and Chengdu Better City?
From 8 meetings on record, Changchun Yatai have won 1, Chengdu Better City have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Changchun Yatai and Chengdu Better City last play each other?
They last met on 12 September 2025, when Chengdu Better City 1-0 Changchun Yatai.
Who has won more matches between Changchun Yatai and Chengdu Better City?
Chengdu Better City have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Changchun Yatai are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
Chengdu Better City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Changchun Yatai 59%, Chengdu Better City 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Changchun Yatai) and 38% (Chengdu Better City).
On the defensive side: Chengdu Better City in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Changchun Yatai home games / Chengdu Better City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Changchun Yatai play Chengdu Better City?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of Changchun Yatai's recent matches and 44% of Chengdu Better City's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Changchun Yatai vs Chengdu Better City usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Changchun Yatai's recent games and 38% of Chengdu Better City's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Changchun Yatai and Chengdu Better City tend to score early?
Changchun Yatai have had a goal before half-time in 91% of their recent matches, Chengdu Better City in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Chengdu Better City edge out Changchun Yatai 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Chengdu Better City beat Changchun Yatai 1-2 at Changchun Sports Center Stadium, Regular Season - 6, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Changchun Yatai 1.25 xG and Chengdu Better City 1.49 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Changchun Yatai attack 0.93 / defence 1.00 against Chengdu Better City attack 1.09 / defence 1.06, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Changchun Yatai 32% | Draw 25% | Chengdu Better City 43%, with Chengdu Better City to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Changchun Yatai 52%, Chengdu Better City 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Changchun Yatai's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Chengdu Better City's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Chengdu Better City arrived the stronger side — 1.84 PPG against 1.30. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.