Beijing Guoan 4-1 Shenzhen Ruby FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Shenzhen Ruby FC at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Beijing Guoan vs Shenzhen Ruby FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Beijing Guoan host Shenzhen Ruby FC at Wuhua Hengpi Football Town in Super League, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday 21 June 2022 at 09:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Beijing Guoan — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: D L D D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Beijing Guoan, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Beijing Guoan at Wuhua Hengpi Football Town this season: 5W 5D 0L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Beijing Guoan are significantly better at Wuhua Hengpi Football Town than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Shenzhen Ruby FC stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Super League matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Shenzhen Ruby FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Shenzhen Ruby FC away from home this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Beijing Guoan at 1.50 PPG versus Shenzhen Ruby FC's 1.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Beijing Guoan, 0 for Shenzhen Ruby FC and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Jan 2022, ended 1–0 with Beijing Guoan winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Beijing Guoan in-play and half-time data (22 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 46% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Shenzhen Ruby FC in-play and half-time data (22 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Beijing Guoan 54% versus Shenzhen Ruby FC 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Beijing Guoan 46% | Shenzhen Ruby FC 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Beijing Guoan 1.21 xG and Shenzhen Ruby FC 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Beijing Guoan attack 0.976 / defence 0.993 | Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 1.124 / defence 0.981. League average goals — home 1.265 / away 1.110. Data: 18 Beijing Guoan games / 18 Shenzhen Ruby FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Beijing Guoan 34% | Draw 30% | Shenzhen Ruby FC 36%. Fair-value odds: Beijing Guoan 2.94 | Draw 3.33 | Shenzhen Ruby FC 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Shenzhen Ruby FC as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Shenzhen Ruby FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.45 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.1 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Beijing Guoan 80% | Shenzhen Ruby FC 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Beijing Guoan vs Shenzhen Ruby FC | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Wuhua Hengpi Football Town • Kick-off: Tuesday 21 Jun 2022, 09:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Beijing Guoan 34% | Draw 30% | Shenzhen Ruby FC 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 51% | xG Beijing Guoan 1.21 / Shenzhen Ruby FC 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Beijing Guoan attack 0.976 / def 0.993 | Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 1.124 / def 0.981 | league avg home 1.265 / away 1.110 • Poisson stance: Shenzhen Ruby FC (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Beijing Guoan xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Shenzhen Ruby FC xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Beijing Guoan vs Shenzhen Ruby FC kick off?
Beijing Guoan vs Shenzhen Ruby FC kicked off at 09:30 on Tuesday 21 June 2022 at Wuhua Hengpi Football Town.
What was the final score in Beijing Guoan vs Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Beijing Guoan 4 - 1 Shenzhen Ruby FC.
Where is Beijing Guoan vs Shenzhen Ruby FC being played?
The match is being played at Wuhua Hengpi Football Town.
What competition is Beijing Guoan vs Shenzhen Ruby FC part of?
Beijing Guoan vs Shenzhen Ruby FC is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Beijing Guoan vs Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Our statistical model gives Beijing Guoan a 34% chance of winning, Shenzhen Ruby FC a 36% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Shenzhen Ruby FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Beijing Guoan vs Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Beijing Guoan and Shenzhen Ruby FC will score (BTTS).
Will Beijing Guoan vs Shenzhen Ruby FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Beijing Guoan and Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Record (2 meetings): Beijing Guoan 1W | Draws 1 | Shenzhen Ruby FC 0W.
What form are Beijing Guoan and Shenzhen Ruby FC in?
Beijing Guoan (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-D-D-W. Shenzhen Ruby FC (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Beijing Guoan's attack rating (0.98) and Shenzhen Ruby FC's defence rating (0.98), the model arrives at 1.21 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Shenzhen Ruby FC's attack versus Beijing Guoan's defence, projects 1.24 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 18/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.3%), 0-1 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shenzhen Ruby FC Win
34%
2.91
30%
3.33
36%
2.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.7%
Away win
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Beijing Guoan xG
Total xG
2.45
1.24
Shenzhen Ruby FC xG
2.91
34%
Home win
3.33
30%
Draw
2.81
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
29%
3.45
30%
3.36
Win to Nil
10%
10.06
11%
9.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 10.7 | 6.6 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 12.9 | 8.0 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 7.8 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.2 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Beijing Guoan vs Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Beijing Guoan and Shenzhen Ruby FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Beijing Guoan and 1.24 for Shenzhen Ruby FC, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Beijing Guoan vs Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Beijing Guoan come into this having played 22 games, going 9W 6D 7L for 1.50 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-D-D-W. The sample for Beijing Guoan is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Shenzhen Ruby FC sit at 1.45 PPG from 22 outings (9W 5D 8L), a run that reads D-L-L-W-L across their last five. The sample for Shenzhen Ruby FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Beijing Guoan on 1.50 PPG, Shenzhen Ruby FC on 1.45. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Beijing Guoan's home form reads 6W 5D 0L across 11 games on their own ground, a 2.09 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.50 PPG overall — Beijing Guoan are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Shenzhen Ruby FC have taken 1.55 points per game from 11 outings (5W 2D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Beijing Guoan come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Beijing Guoan are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Shenzhen Ruby FC are on 1.50 scored and 1.32 conceded.
Last 22 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Beijing Guoan
Blended
Shenzhen Ruby FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Beijing Guoan and Shenzhen Ruby FC in coming into this match?
Beijing Guoan have gone 9W 6D 7L in their last 22 games (1.50 PPG), while Shenzhen Ruby FC have gone 9W 5D 8L in their last 22 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Beijing Guoan at home or Shenzhen Ruby FC away?
Beijing Guoan's home record (2.09 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Beijing Guoan at home: 2.09 PPG; Shenzhen Ruby FC away: 1.55 PPG.
Have Beijing Guoan or Shenzhen Ruby FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Beijing Guoan have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Shenzhen Ruby FC in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 November 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Beijing Guoan go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 Jul 2023, when Beijing Guoan won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Beijing Guoan's record when hosting Shenzhen Ruby FC specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Beijing Guoan
1
Draws
1
Shenzhen Ruby FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Beijing Guoan and Shenzhen Ruby FC?
From 6 meetings on record, Beijing Guoan have won 4, Shenzhen Ruby FC have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Beijing Guoan and Shenzhen Ruby FC last play each other?
They last met on 4 November 2023, when Shenzhen Ruby FC 0-3 Beijing Guoan.
Who has won more matches between Beijing Guoan and Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Beijing Guoan have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Beijing Guoan see a goal before the break in 46% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Shenzhen Ruby FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Beijing Guoan at 73%, Shenzhen Ruby FC at 73%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Beijing Guoan) and 73% (Shenzhen Ruby FC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 18% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Beijing Guoan home games / Shenzhen Ruby FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Beijing Guoan play Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 73% of Beijing Guoan's games and 73% of Shenzhen Ruby FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Beijing Guoan vs Shenzhen Ruby FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 46% of Beijing Guoan's matches and 73% of Shenzhen Ruby FC's.
Do Beijing Guoan and Shenzhen Ruby FC tend to score early?
Beijing Guoan have had a goal before half-time in 46% of their recent matches, Shenzhen Ruby FC in 91% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Beijing Guoan run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Shenzhen Ruby FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Beijing Guoan beat Shenzhen Ruby FC 4-1 at Wuhua Hengpi Football Town, Regular Season - 5, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Beijing Guoan 1.21 xG and Shenzhen Ruby FC 1.24 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Beijing Guoan beat their projection by 2.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Beijing Guoan attack 0.98 / defence 0.99 against Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 1.12 / defence 0.98, drawn from 18/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Beijing Guoan 34% | Draw 30% | Shenzhen Ruby FC 36%, with Shenzhen Ruby FC to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Beijing Guoan win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Beijing Guoan 46%, Shenzhen Ruby FC 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Beijing Guoan's trading profile (22 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Shenzhen Ruby FC's trading profile (22 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Beijing Guoan 1.50 PPG, Shenzhen Ruby FC 1.45 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Beijing Guoan win broke the near-deadlock. Beijing Guoan (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.64 average — above their attacking norm. Shenzhen Ruby FC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.91 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.64 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.