Beijing Guoan 2-1 Hangzhou Greentown – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Beijing Guoan at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Beijing Guoan vs Hangzhou Greentown fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Beijing Workers' Stadium plays host to Beijing Guoan versus Hangzhou Greentown in Super League, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off: Saturday 1 August 2026 at 11:35 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Beijing Guoan have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 5W 4D 1L. Last five: W W W D D. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Beijing Guoan, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Beijing Guoan's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at Beijing Workers' Stadium this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Hangzhou Greentown's overall Super League record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: L L W D W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Hangzhou Greentown, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hangzhou Greentown away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.90 vs 1.50 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Beijing Guoan have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Hangzhou Greentown in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 9 meetings: Beijing Guoan 3W, Hangzhou Greentown 3W, 3D.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Apr 2026, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Beijing Guoan half-time and goal-timing data (49 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
Hangzhou Greentown half-time and goal-timing data (49 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 53%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Beijing Guoan 65% and Hangzhou Greentown 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Beijing Guoan 65% | Hangzhou Greentown 69%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Beijing Guoan 1.92 xG and Hangzhou Greentown 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Beijing Guoan attack 0.999 / defence 0.944 | Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.031 / defence 1.113. League average goals — home 1.729 / away 1.362. Data: 49 Beijing Guoan games / 50 Hangzhou Greentown games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Beijing Guoan 51% | Draw 23% | Hangzhou Greentown 26%. Fair-value odds: Beijing Guoan 1.96 | Draw 4.35 | Hangzhou Greentown 3.85. Beijing Guoan hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.25. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.25 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.92 / 1.33) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Beijing Guoan as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Beijing Guoan if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 3.25 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 63% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Beijing Guoan 70% | Hangzhou Greentown 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Beijing Guoan vs Hangzhou Greentown | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Beijing Workers' Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Aug 2026, 11:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Beijing Guoan 51% | Draw 23% | Hangzhou Greentown 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 63% | xG Beijing Guoan 1.92 / Hangzhou Greentown 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Beijing Guoan attack 0.999 / def 0.944 | Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.031 / def 1.113 | league avg home 1.729 / away 1.362 • Poisson stance: Beijing Guoan (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.92
Beijing Guoan xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Hangzhou Greentown xG
63%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Beijing Guoan vs Hangzhou Greentown kick off?
Beijing Guoan vs Hangzhou Greentown kicked off at 11:35 on Saturday 1 August 2026 at Beijing Workers' Stadium.
What was the final score in Beijing Guoan vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Beijing Guoan 2 - 1 Hangzhou Greentown.
Where is Beijing Guoan vs Hangzhou Greentown being played?
The match is being played at Beijing Workers' Stadium.
What competition is Beijing Guoan vs Hangzhou Greentown part of?
Beijing Guoan vs Hangzhou Greentown is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Beijing Guoan vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Our statistical model gives Beijing Guoan a 51% chance of winning, Hangzhou Greentown a 26% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Beijing Guoan the favourite.
Will both teams score in Beijing Guoan vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Beijing Guoan and Hangzhou Greentown will score (BTTS).
Will Beijing Guoan vs Hangzhou Greentown have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Beijing Guoan and Hangzhou Greentown?
Record (9 meetings): Beijing Guoan 3W | Draws 3 | Hangzhou Greentown 3W.
What form are Beijing Guoan and Hangzhou Greentown in?
Beijing Guoan (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-D-D. Hangzhou Greentown (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Beijing Guoan's attacking strength (1.00x league average) is weighed against Hangzhou Greentown's defensive record (1.11x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.92. Flip it around — Hangzhou Greentown's attack (1.03x) against Beijing Guoan's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 1.33.
These ratings are built from 49/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Beijing Guoan Win
51%
1.95
23%
4.43
26%
3.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
7.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.92
Beijing Guoan xG
Total xG
3.25
1.33
Hangzhou Greentown xG
1.95
51%
Home win
4.43
23%
Draw
3.82
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.70
Clean Sheet
27%
3.77
15%
6.84
Win to Nil
14%
7.35
4%
26.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 5.1 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 9.9 | 6.6 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 9.5 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 6.1 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.9 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Beijing Guoan vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Beijing Guoan and Hangzhou Greentown expected to score?
The model projects 1.92 expected goals for Beijing Guoan and 1.33 for Hangzhou Greentown, a combined total of 3.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Beijing Guoan vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Beijing Guoan's recent record stands at 24W 13D 12L from 49 games, a 1.73 PPG return, with W-W-W-D-D in the last five. The sample for Beijing Guoan is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Hangzhou Greentown, meanwhile, have gone 18W 16D 15L across 49 games — 1.43 PPG, with L-L-W-D-W in their last five. The sample for Hangzhou Greentown is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.73 PPG for Beijing Guoan against 1.43 for Hangzhou Greentown. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Beijing Guoan have managed 14W 5D 6L from 25 games — 1.88 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Hangzhou Greentown's away record stands at 7W 6D 12L across 25 trips, a 1.08 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Beijing Guoan come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Beijing Guoan are averaging 2.06 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Hangzhou Greentown are on 1.82 scored and 1.71 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Beijing Guoan have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games; Hangzhou Greentown in 63%.
Last 49 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Beijing Guoan
Blended
Hangzhou Greentown
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Beijing Guoan and Hangzhou Greentown in coming into this match?
Beijing Guoan have gone 24W 13D 12L in their last 49 games (1.73 PPG), while Hangzhou Greentown have gone 18W 16D 15L in their last 49 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Beijing Guoan at home or Hangzhou Greentown away?
Beijing Guoan's home record (1.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Beijing Guoan at home: 1.88 PPG; Hangzhou Greentown away: 1.08 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since September 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 1 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Beijing Guoan have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Hangzhou Greentown — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Beijing Guoan
3
Draws
3
Hangzhou Greentown
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Beijing Guoan and Hangzhou Greentown?
From 10 meetings on record, Beijing Guoan have won 4, Hangzhou Greentown have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Beijing Guoan and Hangzhou Greentown last play each other?
They last met on 1 August 2026, when Beijing Guoan 2-1 Hangzhou Greentown.
Who has won more matches between Beijing Guoan and Hangzhou Greentown?
Beijing Guoan have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Beijing Guoan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Hangzhou Greentown are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Beijing Guoan 72%, Hangzhou Greentown 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for Beijing Guoan and 68% for Hangzhou Greentown. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 48% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Hangzhou Greentown in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Beijing Guoan home games / Hangzhou Greentown away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Beijing Guoan play Hangzhou Greentown?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 72% of Beijing Guoan's games and 56% of Hangzhou Greentown's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Beijing Guoan vs Hangzhou Greentown usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Beijing Guoan's matches and 68% of Hangzhou Greentown's.
Do Beijing Guoan and Hangzhou Greentown tend to score early?
Beijing Guoan have had a goal before half-time in 84% of their recent matches, Hangzhou Greentown in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Beijing Guoan edge out Hangzhou Greentown 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Beijing Guoan beat Hangzhou Greentown 2-1 at Beijing Workers' Stadium, Regular Season - 21, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Beijing Guoan 1.92 xG and Hangzhou Greentown 1.33 xG, a combined 3.25. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Beijing Guoan attack 1.00 / defence 0.94 against Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.03 / defence 1.11, drawn from 49/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Beijing Guoan 51% | Draw 23% | Hangzhou Greentown 26%, with Beijing Guoan to win its most likely call at 51%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Beijing Guoan 65%, Hangzhou Greentown 69%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Beijing Guoan's trading profile (49 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Hangzhou Greentown's trading profile (49 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Beijing Guoan 1.73 PPG, Hangzhou Greentown 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Beijing Guoan win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.