Universidad de Chile 1-0 Santiago Wanderers – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Universidad de Chile at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Universidad de Chile vs Santiago Wanderers fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estadio El Teniente plays host to Universidad de Chile versus Santiago Wanderers in Primera División, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off: Tuesday 4 May 2021 at 01:30 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Universidad de Chile 1.50 xG and Santiago Wanderers 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Universidad de Chile attack 1.077 / defence 1.181 | Santiago Wanderers attack 0.841 / defence 1.460. League average goals — home 0.953 / away 1.018. Santiago Wanderers bring a strong defensive rating of 1.460 — this is suppressing Universidad de Chile's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 4 Universidad de Chile games / 4 Santiago Wanderers games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Universidad de Chile 45% | Draw 32% | Santiago Wanderers 22%. Fair-value odds: Universidad de Chile 2.22 | Draw 3.12 | Santiago Wanderers 4.55. Universidad de Chile hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Universidad de Chile at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Universidad de Chile if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.51 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Universidad de Chile vs Santiago Wanderers | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Estadio El Teniente • Kick-off: Tuesday 4 May 2021, 01:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Universidad de Chile 45% | Draw 32% | Santiago Wanderers 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 52% | xG Universidad de Chile 1.50 / Santiago Wanderers 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Universidad de Chile attack 1.077 / def 1.181 | Santiago Wanderers attack 0.841 / def 1.460 | league avg home 0.953 / away 1.018 • Poisson stance: Universidad de Chile (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Universidad de Chile xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Santiago Wanderers xG
52%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Universidad de Chile vs Santiago Wanderers kick off?
Universidad de Chile vs Santiago Wanderers kicked off at 01:30 on Tuesday 4 May 2021 at Estadio El Teniente.
What was the final score in Universidad de Chile vs Santiago Wanderers?
Universidad de Chile 1 - 0 Santiago Wanderers.
Where is Universidad de Chile vs Santiago Wanderers being played?
The match is being played at Estadio El Teniente.
What competition is Universidad de Chile vs Santiago Wanderers part of?
Universidad de Chile vs Santiago Wanderers is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Universidad de Chile vs Santiago Wanderers?
Our statistical model gives Universidad de Chile a 45% chance of winning, Santiago Wanderers a 22% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Universidad de Chile the favourite.
Will both teams score in Universidad de Chile vs Santiago Wanderers?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Universidad de Chile and Santiago Wanderers will score (BTTS).
Will Universidad de Chile vs Santiago Wanderers have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Universidad de Chile and Santiago Wanderers?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Universidad de Chile and Santiago Wanderers in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Universidad de Chile's attack rating (1.08) and Santiago Wanderers's defence rating (1.46), the model arrives at 1.50 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Santiago Wanderers's attack (0.84x) against Universidad de Chile's defence (1.18x) — and the away total comes out at 1.01.
These ratings are built from 4/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.6%), 0-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Universidad de Chile Win
45%
2.20
32%
3.11
22%
4.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Universidad de Chile xG
Total xG
2.51
1.01
Santiago Wanderers xG
2.20
45%
Home win
3.11
32%
Draw
4.46
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
36%
2.75
22%
4.48
Win to Nil
17%
6.05
5%
19.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 8.2 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 12.3 | 6.2 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 9.2 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 4.6 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Universidad de Chile vs Santiago Wanderers?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Universidad de Chile and Santiago Wanderers expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Universidad de Chile and 1.01 for Santiago Wanderers, a combined total of 2.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Universidad de Chile vs Santiago Wanderers?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Universidad de Chile
Pre-Season
Santiago Wanderers
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 September 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Universidad de Chile
0
Draws
1
Santiago Wanderers
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Universidad de Chile and Santiago Wanderers?
From 2 meetings on record, Universidad de Chile have won 1, Santiago Wanderers have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Universidad de Chile and Santiago Wanderers last play each other?
They last met on 29 September 2021, when Santiago Wanderers 2-1 Universidad de Chile.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Universidad de Chile home games / Santiago Wanderers away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Universidad de Chile edge out Santiago Wanderers 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Universidad de Chile beat Santiago Wanderers 1-0 at Estadio El Teniente, Regular Season - 6, in the Primera División. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Universidad de Chile 1.50 xG and Santiago Wanderers 1.01 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Santiago Wanderers landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Universidad de Chile attack 1.08 / defence 1.18 against Santiago Wanderers attack 0.84 / defence 1.46, drawn from 4/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Universidad de Chile 45% | Draw 32% | Santiago Wanderers 22%, with Universidad de Chile to win its most likely call at 45%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.