Universidad de Chile 0-0 Nublense – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Universidad de Chile at 48% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Universidad de Chile face Nublense.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Universidad de Chile and Nublense meet at Estadio Nacional Julio Martínez Prádanos in Primera División (matchday 14). This fixture gets under way on Sunday 26 May 2024 at 23:30 UK time.
Current Form
Universidad de Chile's record over their last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L (1.10 PPG). Last five: L W L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Universidad de Chile's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 home games (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Nublense have collected 1.20 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L D D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Nublense have posted 4W 2D 4L from their last 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.10 for Universidad de Chile, 1.20 for Nublense — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Universidad de Chile's last 10 home games and Nublense's last 10 away games) — Universidad de Chile have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Nublense in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated the 4 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for Universidad de Chile, 2 for Nublense and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 9 Dec 2023, ended Universidad de Chile 3–1 Nublense — a Universidad de Chile win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Universidad de Chile — key trading statistics (last 60 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Nublense — key trading statistics (last 60 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Universidad de Chile 63% and Nublense 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Universidad de Chile 57% | Nublense 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Universidad de Chile 1.82 xG and Nublense 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Universidad de Chile attack 0.962 / defence 0.954 | Nublense attack 1.001 / defence 1.243. League average goals — home 1.523 / away 1.422. Nublense's defence rating of 1.243 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Universidad de Chile's projected output up. Data: built from Universidad de Chile's last 43 games and Nublense's last 43.
Result probabilities: Universidad de Chile 48% | Draw 23% | Nublense 29%. Fair-value odds: Universidad de Chile 2.07 | Draw 4.37 | Nublense 3.48. Universidad de Chile hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS Yes probability 62% | Total xG 3.18. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.18 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% — both xG figures (1.82 / 1.36) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Universidad de Chile as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Universidad de Chile if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.18 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Universidad de Chile's last 10 home games and Nublense's last 10 away games) averaging 2.7 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Universidad de Chile 60% (last 10 home games) | Nublense 70% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Universidad de Chile vs Nublense | Competition: Primera División, matchday 14 | Venue: Estadio Nacional Julio Martínez Prádanos • Kick-off: Sunday 26 May 2024 at 23:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Universidad de Chile 48% | Draw 23% | Nublense 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% (Under 38%) | BTTS Yes 62% (No 38%) | xG Universidad de Chile 1.82 / Nublense 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: Universidad de Chile attack 0.962 / def 0.954 | Nublense attack 1.001 / def 1.243 | league avg home 1.523 / away 1.422 • Poisson stance: Universidad de Chile (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.82
Universidad de Chile xG
Expected Goals
1.36
Nublense xG
62%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Universidad de Chile vs Nublense FAQs
What time does Universidad de Chile vs Nublense kick off?
Universidad de Chile vs Nublense kicked off at 23:30 UK time on Sunday 26 May 2024 at Estadio Nacional Julio Martínez Prádanos.
What was the final score in Universidad de Chile vs Nublense?
Universidad de Chile 0 - 0 Nublense.
Where is Universidad de Chile vs Nublense being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Nacional Julio Martínez Prádanos.
What competition is Universidad de Chile vs Nublense part of?
Universidad de Chile vs Nublense is a Primera División fixture (matchday 14) (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Universidad de Chile vs Nublense?
Our statistical model gives Universidad de Chile a 48% chance of winning, Nublense a 29% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Universidad de Chile the favourite.
Will both teams score in Universidad de Chile vs Nublense?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Universidad de Chile and Nublense will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Universidad de Chile vs Nublense have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Universidad de Chile's attack rating (0.96) and Nublense's defence rating (1.24), the model arrives at 1.82 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Nublense's attack (1.00x) against Universidad de Chile's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 1.36.
These ratings are built from Universidad de Chile's last 43 games and Nublense's last 43 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-2 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Universidad de Chile Win
48%
2.07
23%
4.37
29%
3.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
1 – 0
7.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.82
Universidad de Chile xG
Total xG
3.18
1.36
Nublense xG
2.07
48%
Home win
4.37
23%
Draw
3.48
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.65
Clean Sheet
26%
3.89
16%
6.17
Win to Nil
12%
8.03
5%
21.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 5.7 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 10.3 | 7.0 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 9.4 | 6.4 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 5.7 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Universidad de Chile vs Nublense Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Universidad de Chile vs Nublense?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Universidad de Chile and Nublense expected to score?
The model projects 1.82 expected goals for Universidad de Chile and 1.36 for Nublense, a combined total of 3.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Universidad de Chile vs Nublense?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 60 outings, Universidad de Chile have picked up 1.17 PPG on a 19W 13D 28L record — L-W-L-L-W across the most recent five.
Nublense's form line: 23W 18D 19L from 60 games, 1.45 PPG, last five L-D-D-L-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.17 PPG for Universidad de Chile against 1.45 for Nublense. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Universidad de Chile have posted 1.30 PPG from their last 30 home games (10W 9D 11L).
On the road, Nublense have gone 10W 10D 10L from their last 30 away games — 1.33 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Universidad de Chile are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; Nublense are on 1.32 scored and 1.18 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Universidad de Chile have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games; Nublense in 63%.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Universidad de Chile
Current Season
Nublense
Current Season
Universidad de Chile (Home) vs Nublense (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Universidad de Chile
Current Season
Nublense
Current Season
❓ Universidad de Chile vs Nublense Form FAQs
What form are Universidad de Chile and Nublense in coming into this match?
Universidad de Chile have gone 19W 13D 28L in their last 60 games (1.17 PPG), while Nublense have gone 23W 18D 19L in their last 60 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Universidad de Chile at home or Nublense away?
Nublense's away record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Universidad de Chile at home: 1.30 PPG; Nublense away: 1.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Universidad de Chile and Nublense, the earliest from February 2022. All of them came in Primera División. The most recent was as recently as 12 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Universidad de Chile won Universidad de Chile 6-0 Nublense on 12 Oct 2026, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Universidad de Chile have gone 3W 1D 1L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Nublense — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Universidad de Chile
3
Draws
3
Nublense
Recent Meetings
❓ Universidad de Chile vs Nublense H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Universidad de Chile and Nublense?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Universidad de Chile have won 4, Nublense have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Universidad de Chile and Nublense last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 12 October 2026: Universidad de Chile 6-0 Nublense.
Who has won more matches between Universidad de Chile and Nublense?
Universidad de Chile have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Universidad de Chile are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 38% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Nublense are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 44% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Universidad de Chile 57%, Nublense 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Universidad de Chile) and 40% (Nublense).
On the defensive side: Universidad de Chile have failed to score in 27% of games; Nublense in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Universidad de Chile home games / Nublense away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Universidad de Chile vs Nublense Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Universidad de Chile and Nublense matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Universidad de Chile's games and 57% of Nublense's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Universidad de Chile and Nublense matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Universidad de Chile's recent games and 40% of Nublense's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Universidad de Chile and Nublense matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 62% of Universidad de Chile's recent matches and 67% of Nublense's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Universidad de Chile's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Universidad de Chile and Nublense finished level at 0-0 at Estadio Nacional Julio Martínez Prádanos, Regular Season - 14, in the Primera División. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Universidad de Chile 1.82 xG and Nublense 1.36 xG, a combined 3.18. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Universidad de Chile fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Nublense landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Universidad de Chile attack 0.96 / defence 0.95 against Nublense attack 1.00 / defence 1.24, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Universidad de Chile 48% | Draw 23% | Nublense 29%, with Universidad de Chile to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Universidad de Chile 57%, Nublense 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Universidad de Chile's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Nublense's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Universidad de Chile 1.17 PPG, Nublense 1.45 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Universidad de Chile (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.27 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.30 average — tighter than their form line. Nublense (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.10 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.10 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.