Universidad de Chile 2-2 Antofagasta – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Universidad de Chile at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Universidad de Chile vs Antofagasta fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Universidad de Chile and Antofagasta meet at Estadio El Teniente in Primera División, Regular Season - 24. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 3 October 2021 at 22:00 UTC.
Current Form
Universidad de Chile's overall Primera División record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: D D W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Universidad de Chile, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Universidad de Chile have posted 4W 3D 3L at Estadio El Teniente — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Antofagasta (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Primera División outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: W D D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Antofagasta, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Primera División this season, Antofagasta have posted 1W 6D 3L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.50 vs 1.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Universidad de Chile have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Antofagasta in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Universidad de Chile 1W, Antofagasta 0W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 9 May 2021, ended 2–1 with Universidad de Chile winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Universidad de Chile — key trading statistics (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (home games).
Antofagasta — key trading statistics (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Universidad de Chile 67% and Antofagasta 71% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Universidad de Chile 48% | Antofagasta 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Universidad de Chile 1.07 xG and Antofagasta 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Universidad de Chile attack 0.832 / defence 1.217 | Antofagasta attack 0.670 / defence 1.185. League average goals — home 1.090 / away 1.178. Data: 21 Universidad de Chile games / 21 Antofagasta games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Universidad de Chile 36% | Draw 34% | Antofagasta 30%. Fair-value odds: Universidad de Chile 2.78 | Draw 2.94 | Antofagasta 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.04. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.04 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Universidad de Chile at 36% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Universidad de Chile if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.04 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 33% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 42% on No. This conflicts with form data: Universidad de Chile 60% | Antofagasta 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Universidad de Chile vs Antofagasta | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Estadio El Teniente • Kick-off: Sunday 3 Oct 2021, 22:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Universidad de Chile 36% | Draw 34% | Antofagasta 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 42% | xG Universidad de Chile 1.07 / Antofagasta 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Universidad de Chile attack 0.832 / def 1.217 | Antofagasta attack 0.670 / def 1.185 | league avg home 1.090 / away 1.178 • Poisson stance: Universidad de Chile (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.07
Universidad de Chile xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Antofagasta xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Universidad de Chile vs Antofagasta kick off?
Universidad de Chile vs Antofagasta kicked off at 22:00 on Sunday 3 October 2021 at Estadio El Teniente.
What was the final score in Universidad de Chile vs Antofagasta?
Universidad de Chile 2 - 2 Antofagasta.
Where is Universidad de Chile vs Antofagasta being played?
The match is being played at Estadio El Teniente.
What competition is Universidad de Chile vs Antofagasta part of?
Universidad de Chile vs Antofagasta is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Universidad de Chile vs Antofagasta?
Our statistical model gives Universidad de Chile a 36% chance of winning, Antofagasta a 30% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Universidad de Chile the favourite.
Will both teams score in Universidad de Chile vs Antofagasta?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Universidad de Chile and Antofagasta will score (BTTS).
Will Universidad de Chile vs Antofagasta have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Universidad de Chile and Antofagasta?
Record (1 meetings): Universidad de Chile 1W | Draws 0 | Antofagasta 0W.
What form are Universidad de Chile and Antofagasta in?
Universidad de Chile (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-W-L-L. Antofagasta (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Universidad de Chile's attack at 0.83x the league average against Antofagasta's defence at 1.19x — combine the two and it projects 1.07 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Antofagasta's attack (0.67x) against Universidad de Chile's defence (1.22x) — and the away total comes out at 0.96.
These ratings are built from 21/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.8%), 1-0 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Universidad de Chile Win
36%
2.77
34%
2.96
30%
3.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
13.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
Universidad de Chile xG
Total xG
2.04
0.96
Antofagasta xG
2.77
36%
Home win
2.96
34%
Draw
3.32
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.36
58%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
38%
2.61
34%
2.93
Win to Nil
14%
7.25
10%
9.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.1 | 12.5 | 6.0 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.0 | 13.5 | 6.5 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 7.2 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Universidad de Chile vs Antofagasta?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Universidad de Chile and Antofagasta expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for Universidad de Chile and 0.96 for Antofagasta, a combined total of 2.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Universidad de Chile vs Antofagasta?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Universidad de Chile's recent record stands at 9W 6D 6L from 21 games, a 1.57 PPG return, with D-D-W-L-L in the last five. The sample for Universidad de Chile is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Antofagasta, meanwhile, have gone 7W 7D 7L across 21 games — 1.33 PPG, with W-D-D-L-L in their last five. The sample for Antofagasta is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.57 PPG for Universidad de Chile against 1.33 for Antofagasta. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Universidad de Chile have managed 4W 3D 3L from 10 games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Antofagasta's away record stands at 1W 6D 3L across 10 trips, a 0.90 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.33 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Antofagasta's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Universidad de Chile come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Universidad de Chile are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; Antofagasta are on 1.19 scored and 1.29 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Universidad de Chile have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; Antofagasta in 71%.
Last 21 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Universidad de Chile
Blended
Antofagasta
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Universidad de Chile and Antofagasta in coming into this match?
Universidad de Chile have gone 9W 6D 6L in their last 21 games (1.57 PPG), while Antofagasta have gone 7W 7D 7L in their last 21 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Universidad de Chile at home or Antofagasta away?
Universidad de Chile's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Universidad de Chile at home: 1.50 PPG; Antofagasta away: 0.90 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since May 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 July 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Universidad de Chile have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Antofagasta — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Universidad de Chile
2
Draws
0
Antofagasta
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Universidad de Chile and Antofagasta?
From 4 meetings on record, Universidad de Chile have won 2, Antofagasta have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Universidad de Chile and Antofagasta last play each other?
They last met on 10 July 2022, when Antofagasta 1-1 Universidad de Chile.
Who has won more matches between Universidad de Chile and Antofagasta?
Universidad de Chile have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Universidad de Chile are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Antofagasta are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 60% for Universidad de Chile, 70% for Antofagasta — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 30% for Universidad de Chile and 20% for Antofagasta.
On the defensive side: Antofagasta in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Universidad de Chile home games / Antofagasta away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Universidad de Chile play Antofagasta?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Universidad de Chile's games and 70% of Antofagasta's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Universidad de Chile vs Antofagasta usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 30% of Universidad de Chile's recent games and 20% of Antofagasta's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Universidad de Chile and Antofagasta tend to score early?
Universidad de Chile have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Antofagasta in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Universidad de Chile and Antofagasta share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estadio El Teniente, Regular Season - 24, as Universidad de Chile and Antofagasta drew 2-2 in the Primera División. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Universidad de Chile 1.07 xG and Antofagasta 0.96 xG, a combined 2.04. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Universidad de Chile beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Antofagasta outscored their 0.96 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Universidad de Chile attack 0.83 / defence 1.22 against Antofagasta attack 0.67 / defence 1.19, drawn from 21/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Universidad de Chile 36% | Draw 34% | Antofagasta 30%, with Universidad de Chile to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. Over 3.5 was 15% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Universidad de Chile 48%, Antofagasta 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 69%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Universidad de Chile's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Antofagasta's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Universidad de Chile 1.57 PPG, Antofagasta 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Universidad de Chile (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.10 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Antofagasta (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.