U. Catolica 1-0 Universidad de Chile – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates U. Catolica at 68% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this U. Catolica vs Universidad de Chile encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Primera División encounter, Regular Season - 31 sees Universidad de Chile travel to Estadio San Carlos de Apoquindo to take on U. Catolica. The game is scheduled for Sunday 7 November 2021, 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Primera División games this season, U. Catolica have gone 9W 0D 1L from 10 outings — a 2.70 PPG return. Last five: W W L W W. They are averaging 2.90 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
U. Catolica's form when playing at home: 8W 2D 0L across 10 games at Estadio San Carlos de Apoquindo this term (2.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.70 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estadio San Carlos de Apoquindo.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Universidad de Chile stand at 1W 1D 8L from 10 Primera División matches — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone.
When travelling in Primera División this season, Universidad de Chile have posted 4W 2D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.40 exceeds their overall 0.40 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
U. Catolica are in the better shape of the two on current Primera División data — 2.30 PPG ahead (2.70 vs 0.40). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
In-Play Data
U. Catolica trading profile (28 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 86% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Universidad de Chile trading profile (28 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — U. Catolica 57% versus Universidad de Chile 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (U. Catolica 75% | Universidad de Chile 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects U. Catolica 2.39 xG and Universidad de Chile 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: U. Catolica attack 1.684 / defence 0.979 | Universidad de Chile attack 0.793 / defence 1.313. League average goals — home 1.080 / away 1.296. U. Catolica carry an above-average attack strength of 1.684 — their λ of 2.39 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Universidad de Chile bring a strong defensive rating of 1.313 — this is suppressing U. Catolica's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 28 U. Catolica games / 28 Universidad de Chile games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: U. Catolica 68% | Draw 18% | Universidad de Chile 14%. Fair-value odds: U. Catolica 1.47 | Draw 5.56 | Universidad de Chile 7.14. The model has a clear lean to U. Catolica (68%) — a 54pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 3.39. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.39 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates U. Catolica as the most likely outcome at 68% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.39 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 66% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate: U. Catolica 50% | Universidad de Chile 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: U. Catolica vs Universidad de Chile | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Estadio San Carlos de Apoquindo • Kick-off: Sunday 7 Nov 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: U. Catolica 68% | Draw 18% | Universidad de Chile 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 58% | xG U. Catolica 2.39 / Universidad de Chile 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: U. Catolica attack 1.684 / def 0.979 | Universidad de Chile attack 0.793 / def 1.313 | league avg home 1.080 / away 1.296 • Poisson stance: U. Catolica (68%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.39
U. Catolica xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Universidad de Chile xG
58%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does U. Catolica vs Universidad de Chile kick off?
U. Catolica vs Universidad de Chile kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 7 November 2021 at Estadio San Carlos de Apoquindo.
What was the final score in U. Catolica vs Universidad de Chile?
U. Catolica 1 - 0 Universidad de Chile.
Where is U. Catolica vs Universidad de Chile being played?
The match is being played at Estadio San Carlos de Apoquindo.
What competition is U. Catolica vs Universidad de Chile part of?
U. Catolica vs Universidad de Chile is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win U. Catolica vs Universidad de Chile?
Our statistical model gives U. Catolica a 68% chance of winning, Universidad de Chile a 14% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making U. Catolica the favourite.
Will both teams score in U. Catolica vs Universidad de Chile?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both U. Catolica and Universidad de Chile will score (BTTS).
Will U. Catolica vs Universidad de Chile have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between U. Catolica and Universidad de Chile?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are U. Catolica and Universidad de Chile in?
U. Catolica (all comps): 9W-0D-1L in 10 | 2.70 PPG | GF 2.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-L-W-W. Universidad de Chile (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from U. Catolica's attack rating (1.68) and Universidad de Chile's defence rating (1.31), the model arrives at 2.39 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Universidad de Chile's attack versus U. Catolica's defence, projects 1.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 28/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.6%. Close behind: 2-0 (9.6%), 1-1 (9.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
U. Catolica Win
68%
1.47
18%
5.63
14%
7.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 1
8.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.39
U. Catolica xG
Total xG
3.39
1.00
Universidad de Chile xG
1.47
68%
Home win
5.63
18%
Draw
7.03
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.74
42%
BTTS No
2.36
Clean Sheet
37%
2.73
9%
10.90
Win to Nil
25%
4.02
1%
76.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 8.0 | 8.1 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 9.6 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.6 | 7.7 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.6 | 4.6 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for U. Catolica vs Universidad de Chile?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.6%.
How many goals are U. Catolica and Universidad de Chile expected to score?
The model projects 2.39 expected goals for U. Catolica and 1.00 for Universidad de Chile, a combined total of 3.39.
How confident is the prediction model for U. Catolica vs Universidad de Chile?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 68%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
U. Catolica's recent record stands at 18W 2D 8L from 28 games, a 2.00 PPG return, with W-W-L-W-W in the last five.
Universidad de Chile, meanwhile, have gone 9W 7D 12L across 28 games — 1.21 PPG, with L-L-L-L-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours U. Catolica by 0.79 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Universidad de Chile heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, U. Catolica have managed 12W 2D 0L from 14 games — 2.71 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 2.00 PPG overall — U. Catolica are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Universidad de Chile's away record stands at 5W 3D 6L across 14 trips, a 1.29 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, U. Catolica come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
U. Catolica are averaging 2.04 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; Universidad de Chile are on 1.11 scored and 1.21 conceded.
Last 28 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
U. Catolica
Current Season
Universidad de Chile
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are U. Catolica and Universidad de Chile in coming into this match?
U. Catolica have gone 18W 2D 8L in their last 28 games (2.00 PPG), while Universidad de Chile have gone 9W 7D 12L in their last 28 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — U. Catolica at home or Universidad de Chile away?
U. Catolica's home record (2.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — U. Catolica at home: 2.71 PPG; Universidad de Chile away: 1.29 PPG.
Have U. Catolica or Universidad de Chile been keeping clean sheets recently?
U. Catolica have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Universidad de Chile in 14%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between U. Catolica and Universidad de Chile runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Aug 2022, when U. Catolica won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
U. Catolica's record when hosting Universidad de Chile specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
U. Catolica
0
Draws
5
Universidad de Chile
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between U. Catolica and Universidad de Chile?
From 10 meetings on record, U. Catolica have won 5, Universidad de Chile have won 5, and 0 have been drawn.
When did U. Catolica and Universidad de Chile last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when Universidad de Chile 1-0 U. Catolica.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
U. Catolica are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 71% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Universidad de Chile see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — U. Catolica 57%, Universidad de Chile 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 86% for U. Catolica and 57% for Universidad de Chile. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 21% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: U. Catolica keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Universidad de Chile in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = U. Catolica home games / Universidad de Chile away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when U. Catolica play Universidad de Chile?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of U. Catolica's games and 57% of Universidad de Chile's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is U. Catolica vs Universidad de Chile usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 86% of U. Catolica's matches and 57% of Universidad de Chile's.
Do U. Catolica and Universidad de Chile tend to score early?
U. Catolica have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Universidad de Chile in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as U. Catolica edge out Universidad de Chile 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
U. Catolica beat Universidad de Chile 1-0 at Estadio San Carlos de Apoquindo, Regular Season - 31, in the Primera División. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting U. Catolica 2.39 xG and Universidad de Chile 1.00 xG, a combined 3.39. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. U. Catolica fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Universidad de Chile landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of U. Catolica attack 1.68 / defence 0.98 against Universidad de Chile attack 0.79 / defence 1.31, drawn from 28/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it U. Catolica 68% | Draw 18% | Universidad de Chile 14%, with U. Catolica to win its most likely call at 68%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 85% and missed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (U. Catolica 75%, Universidad de Chile 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
U. Catolica's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Universidad de Chile's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, U. Catolica arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.21. Form held, and they took the win. U. Catolica (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.57 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.86 average — tighter than their form line. Universidad de Chile (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.21 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.