Palestino 1-4 Everton de Vina – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Palestino at 49%, yet the head-to-head data favours Everton de Vina — this Palestino vs Everton de Vina fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Everton de Vina travel to Estadio Municipal de La Cisterna to take on Palestino in Primera División (matchday 16). The game is scheduled for Sunday 21 July 2024 at 18:30 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Palestino stand at 5W 2D 3L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L L W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Palestino at home: 5W 2D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across their last 10 games, Everton de Vina have recorded 4W 1D 5L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W D W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Everton de Vina's form when playing away from home: 4W 1D 5L across their last 10 road games (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Palestino 1.70 PPG, Everton de Vina 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
Everton de Vina have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 3 of the 6 H2H matches we hold against 0 for Palestino.
The 6 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 23 Mar 2024, ended Palestino 0–0 Everton de Vina — a draw.
Everton de Vina have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 3 wins from 6 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.
In-Play Profile
Palestino in-play tendencies (last 45 games, 22 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 59% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Everton de Vina in-play tendencies (last 45 games, 22 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Palestino 47% versus Everton de Vina 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Palestino 44% | Everton de Vina 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Palestino 1.68 xG and Everton de Vina 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Palestino attack 1.030 / defence 0.883 | Everton de Vina attack 0.981 / defence 1.109. League average goals — home 1.469 / away 1.341. Data: built from Palestino's last 45 games and Everton de Vina's last 45.
Result probabilities: Palestino 49% | Draw 24% | Everton de Vina 26%. Fair-value odds: Palestino 2.02 | Draw 4.14 | Everton de Vina 3.79. Palestino hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Palestino are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Palestino offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.84 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Palestino's last 10 home games and Everton de Vina's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Palestino 20% (last 10 home games) | Everton de Vina 60% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Palestino vs Everton de Vina | Competition: Primera División, matchday 16 | Venue: Estadio Municipal de La Cisterna • Kick-off: Sunday 21 July 2024 at 18:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Palestino 49% | Draw 24% | Everton de Vina 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% (Under 46%) | BTTS Yes 56% (No 44%) | xG Palestino 1.68 / Everton de Vina 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Palestino attack 1.030 / def 0.883 | Everton de Vina attack 0.981 / def 1.109 | league avg home 1.469 / away 1.341 • Poisson stance: Palestino (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.68
Palestino xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Everton de Vina xG
56%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Palestino vs Everton de Vina FAQs
What time does Palestino vs Everton de Vina kick off?
Palestino vs Everton de Vina kicked off at 18:30 UK time on Sunday 21 July 2024 at Estadio Municipal de La Cisterna.
What was the final score in Palestino vs Everton de Vina?
Palestino 1 - 4 Everton de Vina.
Where is Palestino vs Everton de Vina being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Municipal de La Cisterna.
What competition is Palestino vs Everton de Vina part of?
Palestino vs Everton de Vina is a Primera División fixture (matchday 16) (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Palestino vs Everton de Vina?
Our statistical model gives Palestino a 49% chance of winning, Everton de Vina a 26% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Palestino the favourite.
Will both teams score in Palestino vs Everton de Vina?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Palestino and Everton de Vina will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Palestino vs Everton de Vina have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Palestino's attack at 1.03x the league average against Everton de Vina's defence at 1.11x — combine the two and it projects 1.68 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Everton de Vina's attack versus Palestino's defence, projects 1.16 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Palestino's last 45 games and Everton de Vina's last 45 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 1-0 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Palestino Win
49%
2.02
24%
4.14
26%
3.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.68
Palestino xG
Total xG
2.84
1.16
Everton de Vina xG
2.02
49%
Home win
4.14
24%
Draw
3.79
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
31%
3.19
19%
5.36
Win to Nil
15%
6.45
5%
20.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 6.8 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 11.4 | 6.6 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.6 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 5.4 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Palestino vs Everton de Vina Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Palestino vs Everton de Vina?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Palestino and Everton de Vina expected to score?
The model projects 1.68 expected goals for Palestino and 1.16 for Everton de Vina, a combined total of 2.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Palestino vs Everton de Vina?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 45 outings, Palestino have picked up 1.64 PPG on a 21W 11D 13L record — W-L-L-W-D across the most recent five.
Everton de Vina's form line: 19W 9D 17L from 45 games, 1.47 PPG, last five W-D-W-L-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Palestino on 1.64 PPG, Everton de Vina on 1.47. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Palestino have posted 1.73 PPG from their last 22 home games (11W 5D 6L).
On the road, Everton de Vina have gone 10W 4D 8L from their last 22 away games — 1.55 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Palestino are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 1.13 conceded per game recently; Everton de Vina are on 1.44 scored and 1.40 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Everton de Vina in 60%.
Defensively: Palestino have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 45 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Palestino
Blended
Everton de Vina
Blended
Palestino (Home) vs Everton de Vina (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Palestino
Blended
Everton de Vina
Blended
❓ Palestino vs Everton de Vina Form FAQs
What form are Palestino and Everton de Vina in coming into this match?
Palestino have gone 21W 11D 13L in their last 45 games (1.64 PPG), while Everton de Vina have gone 19W 9D 17L in their last 45 (1.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Palestino at home or Everton de Vina away?
Palestino's home record (1.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Palestino at home: 1.73 PPG; Everton de Vina away: 1.55 PPG.
Have Palestino or Everton de Vina been keeping clean sheets recently?
Palestino have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Everton de Vina in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from September 2021. All of them came in Primera División. The most recent was on 13 June 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Palestino have won each of the latest 3 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 1 Oct 2022, when Everton de Vina won Palestino 1-4 Everton de Vina.
Palestino's record when hosting Everton de Vina specifically: 1W 0D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Palestino
3
Draws
4
Everton de Vina
Recent Meetings
❓ Palestino vs Everton de Vina H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Palestino and Everton de Vina?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Palestino have won 3, Everton de Vina have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Palestino and Everton de Vina last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 13 June 2026: Everton de Vina 1-2 Palestino.
Who has won more matches between Palestino and Everton de Vina?
Everton de Vina have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Palestino see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Everton de Vina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Palestino 46%, Everton de Vina 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Palestino) and 46% (Everton de Vina).
On the defensive side: Palestino keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Palestino home games / Everton de Vina away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Palestino vs Everton de Vina Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Palestino and Everton de Vina matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Palestino's recent matches and 59% of Everton de Vina's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Palestino and Everton de Vina matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Palestino's recent games and 46% of Everton de Vina's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Palestino and Everton de Vina matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 59% of Palestino's recent matches and 82% of Everton de Vina's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Everton de Vina run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Palestino.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Everton de Vina beat Palestino 1-4 at Estadio Municipal de La Cisterna, Regular Season - 16, in the Primera División. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Palestino 1.68 xG and Everton de Vina 1.16 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Everton de Vina outscored their 1.16 projection by 2.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Palestino attack 1.03 / defence 0.88 against Everton de Vina attack 0.98 / defence 1.11, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Palestino 49% | Draw 24% | Everton de Vina 26%, with Palestino to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual Everton de Vina win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Palestino 44%, Everton de Vina 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Palestino's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Everton de Vina's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Palestino 1.64 PPG, Everton de Vina 1.47 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Everton de Vina win broke the near-deadlock. Palestino (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.05 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Everton de Vina (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.45 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.