Nublense 1-1 Colo Colo – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Colo Colo at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Nublense vs Colo Colo encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Colo Colo make the trip to Estadio Bicentenario Municipal Nelson Oyarzún to face Nublense in Primera División, Regular Season - 30. The match kicks off on Sunday 6 November 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Nublense have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Primera División outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: D D D W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Estadio Bicentenario Municipal Nelson Oyarzún, Nublense have gone 7W 1D 2L this season (10 games, 2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Nublense are significantly better at Estadio Bicentenario Municipal Nelson Oyarzún than their overall form suggests.
Colo Colo (all games): 7W 2D 1L across 10 Primera División outings this term — 2.30 points per game. Last five: W D D W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.40. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
On the road, Colo Colo have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On a straight form reading, Colo Colo are the stronger side — 0.80 PPG clear of the hosts (2.30 vs 1.50). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Nublense register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Colo Colo in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Nublense 1W, Colo Colo 0W, 1D.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 0.5 per game from 2 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 30 May 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Nublense goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
Colo Colo goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nublense 57% versus Colo Colo 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nublense 51% | Colo Colo 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nublense 1.31 xG and Colo Colo 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nublense attack 1.180 / defence 1.012 | Colo Colo attack 1.274 / defence 0.746. League average goals — home 1.484 / away 1.095. Colo Colo's defence strength of 0.746 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Colo Colo have an above-average attack strength of 1.274 — the away xG of 1.41 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 61 Nublense games / 61 Colo Colo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nublense 35% | Draw 26% | Colo Colo 39%. Fair-value odds: Nublense 2.86 | Draw 3.85 | Colo Colo 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.72. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.72 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Colo Colo at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Colo Colo if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.72 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Nublense 70% | Colo Colo 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nublense vs Colo Colo | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Estadio Bicentenario Municipal Nelson Oyarzún • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Nov 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nublense 35% | Draw 26% | Colo Colo 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 55% | xG Nublense 1.31 / Colo Colo 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: Nublense attack 1.180 / def 1.012 | Colo Colo attack 1.274 / def 0.746 | league avg home 1.484 / away 1.095 • Poisson stance: Colo Colo (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Nublense xG
Expected Goals
1.41
Colo Colo xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nublense vs Colo Colo kick off?
Nublense vs Colo Colo kicked off at 19:00 on Sunday 6 November 2022 at Estadio Bicentenario Municipal Nelson Oyarzún.
What was the final score in Nublense vs Colo Colo?
Nublense 1 - 1 Colo Colo.
Where is Nublense vs Colo Colo being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Bicentenario Municipal Nelson Oyarzún.
What competition is Nublense vs Colo Colo part of?
Nublense vs Colo Colo is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Nublense vs Colo Colo?
Our statistical model gives Nublense a 35% chance of winning, Colo Colo a 39% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Colo Colo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nublense vs Colo Colo?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Nublense and Colo Colo will score (BTTS).
Will Nublense vs Colo Colo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nublense and Colo Colo?
Record (2 meetings): Nublense 1W | Draws 1 | Colo Colo 0W.
What form are Nublense and Colo Colo in?
Nublense (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-D-W-W. Colo Colo (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.40 | L5 W-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Nublense's attack at 1.18x the league average against Colo Colo's defence at 0.75x — combine the two and it projects 1.31 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Colo Colo's attack (1.27x) against Nublense's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 1.41.
These ratings are built from 61/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 0-0 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Colo Colo Win
35%
2.89
26%
3.86
39%
2.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
1 – 0
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Nublense xG
Total xG
2.72
1.41
Colo Colo xG
2.89
35%
Home win
3.86
26%
Draw
2.54
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
24%
4.10
27%
3.70
Win to Nil
8%
11.84
11%
9.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 9.3 | 6.6 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 12.2 | 8.6 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 8.0 | 5.6 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nublense vs Colo Colo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Nublense and Colo Colo expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Nublense and 1.41 for Colo Colo, a combined total of 2.72.
How confident is the prediction model for Nublense vs Colo Colo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 61 outings, Nublense have picked up 1.56 PPG on a 25W 20D 16L record — D-D-D-W-W across the most recent five.
Colo Colo's form line: 37W 13D 11L from 61 games, 2.03 PPG, last five W-D-D-W-W.
Put side by side, Colo Colo are the form team by 0.47 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Nublense.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Nublense have posted 1.87 PPG from 30 outings (16W 8D 6L).
On the road, Colo Colo have gone 17W 7D 6L from 30 away games — 1.93 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Nublense are averaging 1.54 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Colo Colo are on 1.67 scored and 0.69 conceded.
Defensively: Colo Colo in 49% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 61 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nublense
Current Season
Colo Colo
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nublense and Colo Colo in coming into this match?
Nublense have gone 25W 20D 16L in their last 61 games (1.56 PPG), while Colo Colo have gone 37W 13D 11L in their last 61 (2.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nublense at home or Colo Colo away?
Colo Colo's away record (1.93 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nublense at home: 1.87 PPG; Colo Colo away: 1.93 PPG.
Have Nublense or Colo Colo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Nublense have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Colo Colo in 49%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. The two were last together as recently as 17 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Colo Colo have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Colo Colo won 6-2 on 17 May 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Nublense have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Colo Colo — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Nublense
4
Draws
4
Colo Colo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nublense and Colo Colo?
From 10 meetings on record, Nublense have won 2, Colo Colo have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Nublense and Colo Colo last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when Colo Colo 6-2 Nublense.
Who has won more matches between Nublense and Colo Colo?
Colo Colo have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Nublense are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Colo Colo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nublense 57%, Colo Colo 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Nublense) and 47% (Colo Colo).
On the defensive side: Nublense keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Colo Colo in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nublense home games / Colo Colo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nublense play Colo Colo?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Nublense's games and 57% of Colo Colo's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Nublense vs Colo Colo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Nublense's recent games and 47% of Colo Colo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Nublense and Colo Colo tend to score early?
Nublense have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Colo Colo in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Nublense and Colo Colo share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Nublense and Colo Colo finished level at 1-1 at Estadio Bicentenario Municipal Nelson Oyarzún, Regular Season - 30, in the Primera División. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nublense 1.31 xG and Colo Colo 1.41 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nublense attack 1.18 / defence 1.01 against Colo Colo attack 1.27 / defence 0.75, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nublense 35% | Draw 26% | Colo Colo 39%, with Colo Colo to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nublense 51%, Colo Colo 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nublense's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Colo Colo's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Colo Colo arrived the stronger side — 2.03 PPG against 1.56. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Nublense (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.87 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.