Nublense 3-1 Cobresal – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 43% as Nublense take on Cobresal.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Nublense and Cobresal meet at Estadio Bicentenario Municipal Nelson Oyarzún in Primera División, Regular Season - 3. This fixture gets under way on Monday 12 April 2021 at 17:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nublense 0.67 xG and Cobresal 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nublense attack 0.835 / defence 1.173 | Cobresal attack 0.720 / defence 1.035. League average goals — home 0.773 / away 1.023. Data: 2 Nublense games / 2 Cobresal games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Nublense 23% | Draw 43% | Cobresal 34%. Fair-value odds: Nublense 4.35 | Draw 2.33 | Cobresal 2.94. The draw (43%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 20% | BTTS probability 32% | Total xG 1.53. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 80% probability — total xG of 1.53 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 68% — Nublense's lower xG of 0.67 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 32%.
Final Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 43% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 23% and away win at 34% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 1.53 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 20% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nublense vs Cobresal | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Estadio Bicentenario Municipal Nelson Oyarzún • Kick-off: Monday 12 Apr 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nublense 23% | Draw 43% | Cobresal 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 20% | BTTS 32% | xG Nublense 0.67 / Cobresal 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Nublense attack 0.835 / def 1.173 | Cobresal attack 0.720 / def 1.035 | league avg home 0.773 / away 1.023 • Poisson stance: Draw (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.67
Nublense xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Cobresal xG
32%
BTTS
49%
Over 1.5
20%
Over 2.5
7%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nublense vs Cobresal kick off?
Nublense vs Cobresal kicked off at 17:00 on Monday 12 April 2021 at Estadio Bicentenario Municipal Nelson Oyarzún.
What was the final score in Nublense vs Cobresal?
Nublense 3 - 1 Cobresal.
Where is Nublense vs Cobresal being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Bicentenario Municipal Nelson Oyarzún.
What competition is Nublense vs Cobresal part of?
Nublense vs Cobresal is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Nublense vs Cobresal?
Our statistical model gives Nublense a 23% chance of winning, Cobresal a 34% chance, and a 43% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Nublense vs Cobresal?
Our model estimates a 32% probability that both Nublense and Cobresal will score (BTTS).
Will Nublense vs Cobresal have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 20%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nublense and Cobresal?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Nublense and Cobresal in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Nublense's attacking strength (0.83x league average) is weighed against Cobresal's defensive record (1.03x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.67. Flip it around — Cobresal's attack (0.72x) against Nublense's defence (1.17x) — and the away total comes out at 0.86.
The sample (2/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 23.2%. Close behind: 0-1 (17.0%), 1-1 (14.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 54% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
23%
4.43
43%
2.30
34%
2.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
21.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
18.7%
Away win
1 – 0
14.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.67
Nublense xG
Total xG
1.53
0.86
Cobresal xG
4.43
23%
Home win
2.30
43%
Draw
2.95
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
45%
Over 1.5
2.22
55%
Under 1.5
1.82
20%
Over 2.5
5.00
80%
Under 2.5
1.25
7%
Over 3.5
14.29
93%
Under 3.5
1.08
2%
Over 4.5
50.00
98%
Under 4.5
1.02
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
32%
BTTS Yes
3.13
68%
BTTS No
1.47
Clean Sheet
42%
2.37
51%
1.95
Win to Nil
10%
10.52
17%
5.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 21.6 | 18.7 | 8.1 | 2.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.4 | 12.5 | 5.4 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nublense vs Cobresal?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 23.2%.
How many goals are Nublense and Cobresal expected to score?
The model projects 0.67 expected goals for Nublense and 0.86 for Cobresal, a combined total of 1.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Nublense vs Cobresal?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nublense
Pre-Season
Cobresal
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. The two were last together as recently as 29 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Nublense have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Nublense won 5-0 on 7 Dec 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Nublense have gone 3W 0D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Cobresal — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Nublense
4
Draws
2
Cobresal
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nublense and Cobresal?
From 10 meetings on record, Nublense have won 4, Cobresal have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Nublense and Cobresal last play each other?
They last met on 29 May 2026, when Cobresal 0-1 Nublense.
Who has won more matches between Nublense and Cobresal?
Nublense have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nublense home games / Cobresal away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Nublense cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Cobresal.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Nublense beat Cobresal 3-1 at Estadio Bicentenario Municipal Nelson Oyarzún, Regular Season - 3, in the Primera División. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nublense 0.67 xG and Cobresal 0.86 xG, a combined 1.53. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Nublense beat their projection by 2.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nublense attack 0.83 / defence 1.17 against Cobresal attack 0.72 / defence 1.03, drawn from 2/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Nublense 23% | Draw 43% | Cobresal 34%, with the draw its most likely call at 43%. Instead the game produced a Nublense win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 20%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 49% and landed. Over 3.5 was 7% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 32% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.