Deportes Copiapo 0-0 Union La Calera – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Union La Calera at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Deportes Copiapo vs Union La Calera fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Primera División encounter, Regular Season - 8 sees Union La Calera travel to Estadio Luis Valenzuela Hermosilla to take on Deportes Copiapo. The game is scheduled for Friday 10 March 2023, 23:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Across all Primera División games this season, Union La Calera have recorded 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Union La Calera's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in Primera División this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Deportes Copiapo 1.42 xG and Union La Calera 1.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Deportes Copiapo attack 0.901 / defence 1.589 | Union La Calera attack 0.927 / defence 0.959. League average goals — home 1.641 / away 1.297. Data: 7 Deportes Copiapo games / 37 Union La Calera games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Deportes Copiapo 28% | Draw 23% | Union La Calera 49%. Fair-value odds: Deportes Copiapo 3.57 | Draw 4.35 | Union La Calera 2.04. Union La Calera hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.33. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.33 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.42 / 1.91) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Union La Calera are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Union La Calera offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.33 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 65% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Deportes Copiapo vs Union La Calera | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Estadio Luis Valenzuela Hermosilla • Kick-off: Friday 10 Mar 2023, 23:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Deportes Copiapo 28% | Draw 23% | Union La Calera 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 65% | xG Deportes Copiapo 1.42 / Union La Calera 1.91 • Poisson strength factors: Deportes Copiapo attack 0.901 / def 1.589 | Union La Calera attack 0.927 / def 0.959 | league avg home 1.641 / away 1.297 • Poisson stance: Union La Calera (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Deportes Copiapo xG
Expected Goals
1.91
Union La Calera xG
65%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Deportes Copiapo vs Union La Calera kick off?
Deportes Copiapo vs Union La Calera kicked off at 23:30 on Friday 10 March 2023 at Estadio Luis Valenzuela Hermosilla.
What was the final score in Deportes Copiapo vs Union La Calera?
Deportes Copiapo 0 - 0 Union La Calera.
Where is Deportes Copiapo vs Union La Calera being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Luis Valenzuela Hermosilla.
What competition is Deportes Copiapo vs Union La Calera part of?
Deportes Copiapo vs Union La Calera is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Deportes Copiapo vs Union La Calera?
Our statistical model gives Deportes Copiapo a 28% chance of winning, Union La Calera a 49% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Union La Calera the favourite.
Will both teams score in Deportes Copiapo vs Union La Calera?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Deportes Copiapo and Union La Calera will score (BTTS).
Will Deportes Copiapo vs Union La Calera have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Deportes Copiapo and Union La Calera?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Deportes Copiapo and Union La Calera in?
Union La Calera (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-L-W. Union La Calera away split: 1.10 PPG from 10 | GF 1.30 / GA 1.80 | CS 2.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Deportes Copiapo's attack rating (0.90) and Union La Calera's defence rating (0.96), the model arrives at 1.42 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Union La Calera's attack versus Deportes Copiapo's defence, projects 1.91 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 7/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.0%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 2-1 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Union La Calera Win
28%
3.57
23%
4.26
49%
2.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
0 – 1
6.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Deportes Copiapo xG
Total xG
3.33
1.91
Union La Calera xG
3.57
28%
Home win
4.26
23%
Draw
2.06
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.53
35%
BTTS No
2.87
Clean Sheet
15%
6.77
24%
4.12
Win to Nil
4%
24.18
12%
8.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 6.9 | 6.5 | 4.2 | 2.0 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 5.1 | 9.7 | 9.3 | 5.9 | 2.8 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 6.9 | 6.6 | 4.2 | 2.0 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 3.2 | 3.1 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Deportes Copiapo vs Union La Calera?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.0%.
How many goals are Deportes Copiapo and Union La Calera expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Deportes Copiapo and 1.91 for Union La Calera, a combined total of 3.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Deportes Copiapo vs Union La Calera?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Deportes Copiapo
Pre-Season
Union La Calera
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to March 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. It has been a while since the last meeting — 24 August 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Deportes Copiapo's record when hosting Union La Calera specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Deportes Copiapo
3
Draws
0
Union La Calera
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Deportes Copiapo and Union La Calera?
From 4 meetings on record, Deportes Copiapo have won 1, Union La Calera have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Deportes Copiapo and Union La Calera last play each other?
They last met on 24 August 2024, when Union La Calera 3-3 Deportes Copiapo.
Who has won more matches between Deportes Copiapo and Union La Calera?
Deportes Copiapo have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Deportes Copiapo home games / Union La Calera away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Stalemate at Deportes Copiapo's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estadio Luis Valenzuela Hermosilla, Regular Season - 8, as Deportes Copiapo and Union La Calera drew 0-0 in the Primera División. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Deportes Copiapo 1.42 xG and Union La Calera 1.91 xG, a combined 3.33. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Deportes Copiapo fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Union La Calera landed 1.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Deportes Copiapo attack 0.90 / defence 1.59 against Union La Calera attack 0.93 / defence 0.96, drawn from 7/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Deportes Copiapo 28% | Draw 23% | Union La Calera 49%, with Union La Calera to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 85% and missed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.