Deportes Copiapo 2-3 Union Espanola – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Deportes Copiapo at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Deportes Copiapo vs Union Espanola fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estadio Luis Valenzuela Hermosilla plays host to Deportes Copiapo versus Union Espanola in Primera División, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off: Sunday 15 September 2024 at 16:30 UTC.
Form
Deportes Copiapo (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Primera División fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L D L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Deportes Copiapo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Deportes Copiapo's form when playing at home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 games at Estadio Luis Valenzuela Hermosilla this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Deportes Copiapo are significantly better at Estadio Luis Valenzuela Hermosilla than their overall form suggests.
Union Espanola's overall Primera División record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: D W D L L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Union Espanola, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Union Espanola away from home this season: 1W 5D 4L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.10 PPG for Deportes Copiapo against 1.20 for Union Espanola. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Deportes Copiapo 1W, Union Espanola 2W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 6.0 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 21 Apr 2024, ended 3–5 with Union Espanola winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 6.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Deportes Copiapo — key trading statistics (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Union Espanola — key trading statistics (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Deportes Copiapo 49% versus Union Espanola 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Deportes Copiapo 51% | Union Espanola 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Deportes Copiapo 1.59 xG and Union Espanola 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Deportes Copiapo attack 0.979 / defence 1.065 | Union Espanola attack 1.006 / defence 1.091. League average goals — home 1.487 / away 1.174. Data: 53 Deportes Copiapo games / 53 Union Espanola games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Deportes Copiapo 45% | Draw 25% | Union Espanola 30%. Fair-value odds: Deportes Copiapo 2.22 | Draw 4.00 | Union Espanola 3.33. Deportes Copiapo hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Deportes Copiapo as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Deportes Copiapo if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.84 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 6.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Deportes Copiapo 30% | Union Espanola 60%.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Deportes Copiapo vs Union Espanola | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Estadio Luis Valenzuela Hermosilla • Kick-off: Sunday 15 Sep 2024, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Deportes Copiapo 45% | Draw 25% | Union Espanola 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 57% | xG Deportes Copiapo 1.59 / Union Espanola 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Deportes Copiapo attack 0.979 / def 1.065 | Union Espanola attack 1.006 / def 1.091 | league avg home 1.487 / away 1.174 • Poisson stance: Deportes Copiapo (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
Deportes Copiapo xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Union Espanola xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Deportes Copiapo vs Union Espanola kick off?
Deportes Copiapo vs Union Espanola kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 15 September 2024 at Estadio Luis Valenzuela Hermosilla.
What was the final score in Deportes Copiapo vs Union Espanola?
Deportes Copiapo 2 - 3 Union Espanola.
Where is Deportes Copiapo vs Union Espanola being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Luis Valenzuela Hermosilla.
What competition is Deportes Copiapo vs Union Espanola part of?
Deportes Copiapo vs Union Espanola is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Deportes Copiapo vs Union Espanola?
Our statistical model gives Deportes Copiapo a 45% chance of winning, Union Espanola a 30% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Deportes Copiapo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Deportes Copiapo vs Union Espanola?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Deportes Copiapo and Union Espanola will score (BTTS).
Will Deportes Copiapo vs Union Espanola have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Deportes Copiapo and Union Espanola?
Record (3 meetings): Deportes Copiapo 1W | Draws 0 | Union Espanola 2W.
What form are Deportes Copiapo and Union Espanola in?
Deportes Copiapo (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-D-L-D. Union Espanola (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Deportes Copiapo's attack at 0.98x the league average against Union Espanola's defence at 1.09x — combine the two and it projects 1.59 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Union Espanola's attack (1.01x) against Deportes Copiapo's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 1.26.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-0 (7.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Deportes Copiapo Win
45%
2.22
25%
4.05
30%
3.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
Deportes Copiapo xG
Total xG
2.84
1.26
Union Espanola xG
2.22
45%
Home win
4.05
25%
Draw
3.31
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.32
Clean Sheet
28%
3.51
20%
4.89
Win to Nil
13%
7.80
6%
16.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 7.3 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 11.6 | 7.3 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 9.2 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.9 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Deportes Copiapo vs Union Espanola?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Deportes Copiapo and Union Espanola expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Deportes Copiapo and 1.26 for Union Espanola, a combined total of 2.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Deportes Copiapo vs Union Espanola?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Deportes Copiapo come into this having played 53 games, going 14W 12D 27L for 1.02 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-L-D. The sample for Deportes Copiapo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Union Espanola sit at 1.36 PPG from 53 outings (19W 15D 19L), a run that reads D-W-D-L-L across their last five. The sample for Union Espanola is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.02 PPG for Deportes Copiapo against 1.36 for Union Espanola. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Deportes Copiapo's home form reads 11W 6D 9L across 26 games on their own ground, a 1.50 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.02 PPG overall — Deportes Copiapo are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Union Espanola have taken 0.85 points per game from 26 outings (4W 10D 12L). That's a step down from their 1.36 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Union Espanola's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Deportes Copiapo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Deportes Copiapo are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; Union Espanola are on 1.53 scored and 1.36 conceded.
Last 53 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Deportes Copiapo
Blended
Union Espanola
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Deportes Copiapo and Union Espanola in coming into this match?
Deportes Copiapo have gone 14W 12D 27L in their last 53 games (1.02 PPG), while Union Espanola have gone 19W 15D 19L in their last 53 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Deportes Copiapo at home or Union Espanola away?
Deportes Copiapo's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Deportes Copiapo at home: 1.50 PPG; Union Espanola away: 0.85 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to March 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 September 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Union Espanola go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Union Espanola won 3-0 on 4 Mar 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Deportes Copiapo have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Union Espanola — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Deportes Copiapo
0
Draws
3
Union Espanola
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Deportes Copiapo and Union Espanola?
From 4 meetings on record, Deportes Copiapo have won 1, Union Espanola have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Deportes Copiapo and Union Espanola last play each other?
They last met on 15 September 2024, when Deportes Copiapo 2-3 Union Espanola.
Who has won more matches between Deportes Copiapo and Union Espanola?
Union Espanola have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Deportes Copiapo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Union Espanola are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Deportes Copiapo 54%, Union Espanola 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Deportes Copiapo) and 42% (Union Espanola).
On the defensive side: Deportes Copiapo keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Union Espanola in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Deportes Copiapo home games / Union Espanola away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Deportes Copiapo play Union Espanola?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Deportes Copiapo's recent matches and 50% of Union Espanola's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Deportes Copiapo vs Union Espanola usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Deportes Copiapo's recent games and 42% of Union Espanola's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Deportes Copiapo and Union Espanola tend to score early?
Deportes Copiapo have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Union Espanola in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Union Espanola defy the odds to beat Deportes Copiapo 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Union Espanola beat Deportes Copiapo 2-3 at Estadio Luis Valenzuela Hermosilla, Regular Season - 24, in the Primera División. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Deportes Copiapo 1.59 xG and Union Espanola 1.26 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Union Espanola outscored their 1.26 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Deportes Copiapo attack 0.98 / defence 1.06 against Union Espanola attack 1.01 / defence 1.09, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Deportes Copiapo 45% | Draw 25% | Union Espanola 30%, with Deportes Copiapo to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Union Espanola win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Deportes Copiapo 51%, Union Espanola 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Deportes Copiapo's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Union Espanola's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Deportes Copiapo 1.02 PPG, Union Espanola 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Union Espanola win broke the near-deadlock. Deportes Copiapo (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.46 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Union Espanola (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.