Curico Unido 0-1 Union Espanola – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Curico Unido at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Curico Unido vs Union Espanola fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Primera División encounter, Regular Season - 4 sees Union Espanola travel to Estadio Bicentenario La Granja to take on Curico Unido. The game is scheduled for Monday 28 February 2022, 21:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Curico Unido stand at 3W 5D 2L from 10 Primera División matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W D D D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Curico Unido have posted 3W 5D 2L at Estadio Bicentenario La Granja — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Union Espanola — All Games: 5W 0D 5L from 10 Primera División fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Primera División this season, Union Espanola have posted 4W 0D 6L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Curico Unido 1.40 PPG, Union Espanola 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Curico Unido, 2 for Union Espanola and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 16 Oct 2021, ended 1–2 with Union Espanola winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Curico Unido trading profile (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games).
Union Espanola trading profile (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Curico Unido 56% and Union Espanola 66% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Curico Unido 38% | Union Espanola 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Curico Unido 1.76 xG and Union Espanola 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Curico Unido attack 1.152 / defence 0.860 | Union Espanola attack 1.000 / defence 1.101. League average goals — home 1.391 / away 1.215. Data: 35 Curico Unido games / 35 Union Espanola games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Curico Unido 52% | Draw 28% | Union Espanola 20%. Fair-value odds: Curico Unido 1.92 | Draw 3.57 | Union Espanola 5.00. Curico Unido hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Curico Unido at 52% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Curico Unido offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.81 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Curico Unido 50% | Union Espanola 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Curico Unido vs Union Espanola | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Estadio Bicentenario La Granja • Kick-off: Monday 28 Feb 2022, 21:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Curico Unido 52% | Draw 28% | Union Espanola 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 56% | xG Curico Unido 1.76 / Union Espanola 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Curico Unido attack 1.152 / def 0.860 | Union Espanola attack 1.000 / def 1.101 | league avg home 1.391 / away 1.215 • Poisson stance: Curico Unido (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.76
Curico Unido xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Union Espanola xG
56%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Curico Unido vs Union Espanola kick off?
Curico Unido vs Union Espanola kicked off at 21:00 on Monday 28 February 2022 at Estadio Bicentenario La Granja.
What was the final score in Curico Unido vs Union Espanola?
Curico Unido 0 - 1 Union Espanola.
Where is Curico Unido vs Union Espanola being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Bicentenario La Granja.
What competition is Curico Unido vs Union Espanola part of?
Curico Unido vs Union Espanola is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Curico Unido vs Union Espanola?
Our statistical model gives Curico Unido a 52% chance of winning, Union Espanola a 20% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Curico Unido the favourite.
Will both teams score in Curico Unido vs Union Espanola?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Curico Unido and Union Espanola will score (BTTS).
Will Curico Unido vs Union Espanola have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Curico Unido and Union Espanola?
Record (2 meetings): Curico Unido 0W | Draws 0 | Union Espanola 2W.
What form are Curico Unido and Union Espanola in?
Curico Unido (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-D-D-D. Union Espanola (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Curico Unido's attack at 1.15x the league average against Union Espanola's defence at 1.10x — combine the two and it projects 1.76 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Union Espanola's attack versus Curico Unido's defence, projects 1.05 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 35/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Curico Unido Win
52%
1.93
28%
3.52
20%
5.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.76
Curico Unido xG
Total xG
2.81
1.05
Union Espanola xG
1.93
52%
Home win
3.52
28%
Draw
5.04
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.29
Clean Sheet
35%
2.85
17%
5.83
Win to Nil
18%
5.51
3%
29.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 6.3 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 11.1 | 5.8 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.8 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 5.8 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Curico Unido vs Union Espanola?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Curico Unido and Union Espanola expected to score?
The model projects 1.76 expected goals for Curico Unido and 1.05 for Union Espanola, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Curico Unido vs Union Espanola?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Curico Unido's recent record stands at 8W 13D 11L from 32 games, a 1.16 PPG return, with L-W-D-D-D in the last five.
Union Espanola, meanwhile, have gone 15W 3D 14L across 32 games — 1.50 PPG, with L-L-L-W-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Curico Unido on 1.16 PPG, Union Espanola on 1.50. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Curico Unido have managed 4W 8D 4L from 16 games — 1.25 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Union Espanola's away record stands at 6W 1D 9L across 16 trips, a 1.19 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Curico Unido are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Union Espanola are on 1.50 scored and 1.56 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Union Espanola in 66%.
Last 32 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Curico Unido
Current Season
Union Espanola
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Curico Unido and Union Espanola in coming into this match?
Curico Unido have gone 8W 13D 11L in their last 32 games (1.16 PPG), while Union Espanola have gone 15W 3D 14L in their last 32 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Curico Unido at home or Union Espanola away?
Curico Unido's home record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Curico Unido at home: 1.25 PPG; Union Espanola away: 1.19 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Curico Unido and Union Espanola runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 October 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Curico Unido's record when hosting Union Espanola specifically: 0W 0D 3L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Curico Unido
1
Draws
4
Union Espanola
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Curico Unido and Union Espanola?
From 6 meetings on record, Curico Unido have won 1, Union Espanola have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Curico Unido and Union Espanola last play each other?
They last met on 1 October 2023, when Union Espanola 2-2 Curico Unido.
Who has won more matches between Curico Unido and Union Espanola?
Union Espanola have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Curico Unido are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Union Espanola are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Curico Unido 62%, Union Espanola 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Curico Unido) and 56% (Union Espanola).
On the defensive side: Curico Unido keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Union Espanola in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Curico Unido home games / Union Espanola away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Curico Unido play Union Espanola?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Curico Unido's games and 50% of Union Espanola's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Curico Unido vs Union Espanola usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Curico Unido's recent games and 56% of Union Espanola's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Curico Unido and Union Espanola tend to score early?
Curico Unido have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Union Espanola in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Union Espanola defy the odds to beat Curico Unido 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Union Espanola beat Curico Unido 0-1 at Estadio Bicentenario La Granja, Regular Season - 4, in the Primera División. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Curico Unido 1.76 xG and Union Espanola 1.05 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Curico Unido fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Curico Unido attack 1.15 / defence 0.86 against Union Espanola attack 1.00 / defence 1.10, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Curico Unido 52% | Draw 28% | Union Espanola 20%, with Curico Unido to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a Union Espanola win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Curico Unido 38%, Union Espanola 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Curico Unido's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Union Espanola's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Curico Unido 1.16 PPG, Union Espanola 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Union Espanola win broke the near-deadlock. Curico Unido (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.19 scoring average — below par going forward. Union Espanola (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.56 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.