Coquimbo Unido 0-2 Everton de Vina – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Coquimbo Unido at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Coquimbo Unido vs Everton de Vina fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Primera División encounter, Regular Season - 19 sees Everton de Vina travel to Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso to take on Coquimbo Unido. The game is scheduled for Monday 31 July 2023, 01:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Coquimbo Unido stand at 6W 1D 3L from 10 Primera División matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W W D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Coquimbo Unido, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Coquimbo Unido's home record at Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Primera División appearances (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Primera División games this season, Everton de Vina have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D W W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Everton de Vina, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Primera División this season, Everton de Vina have posted 2W 4D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.90 PPG (Coquimbo Unido) versus 1.70 (Everton de Vina). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Coquimbo Unido, 2 for Everton de Vina and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Feb 2023, ended 0–2 with Everton de Vina winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Coquimbo Unido in-play and half-time data (48 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Everton de Vina in-play and half-time data (48 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Coquimbo Unido 58% versus Everton de Vina 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Coquimbo Unido 50% | Everton de Vina 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Coquimbo Unido 1.30 xG and Everton de Vina 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Coquimbo Unido attack 1.011 / defence 0.843 | Everton de Vina attack 1.076 / defence 1.003. League average goals — home 1.283 / away 1.098. Data: 48 Coquimbo Unido games / 48 Everton de Vina games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Coquimbo Unido 44% | Draw 28% | Everton de Vina 28%. Fair-value odds: Coquimbo Unido 2.27 | Draw 3.57 | Everton de Vina 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.30. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.30 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Coquimbo Unido at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Coquimbo Unido offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.30 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 40% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. This conflicts with form data: Coquimbo Unido 70% | Everton de Vina 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Coquimbo Unido vs Everton de Vina | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso • Kick-off: Monday 31 Jul 2023, 01:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Coquimbo Unido 44% | Draw 28% | Everton de Vina 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 46% | xG Coquimbo Unido 1.30 / Everton de Vina 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Coquimbo Unido attack 1.011 / def 0.843 | Everton de Vina attack 1.076 / def 1.003 | league avg home 1.283 / away 1.098 • Poisson stance: Coquimbo Unido (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Coquimbo Unido xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Everton de Vina xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Coquimbo Unido vs Everton de Vina kick off?
Coquimbo Unido vs Everton de Vina kicked off at 01:00 on Monday 31 July 2023 at Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso.
What was the final score in Coquimbo Unido vs Everton de Vina?
Coquimbo Unido 0 - 2 Everton de Vina.
Where is Coquimbo Unido vs Everton de Vina being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso.
What competition is Coquimbo Unido vs Everton de Vina part of?
Coquimbo Unido vs Everton de Vina is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Coquimbo Unido vs Everton de Vina?
Our statistical model gives Coquimbo Unido a 44% chance of winning, Everton de Vina a 28% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Coquimbo Unido the favourite.
Will both teams score in Coquimbo Unido vs Everton de Vina?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Coquimbo Unido and Everton de Vina will score (BTTS).
Will Coquimbo Unido vs Everton de Vina have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Coquimbo Unido and Everton de Vina?
Record (3 meetings): Coquimbo Unido 0W | Draws 1 | Everton de Vina 2W.
What form are Coquimbo Unido and Everton de Vina in?
Coquimbo Unido (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-D-L. Everton de Vina (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Coquimbo Unido's attack at 1.01x the league average against Everton de Vina's defence at 1.00x — combine the two and it projects 1.30 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Everton de Vina's attack versus Coquimbo Unido's defence, projects 0.99 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.8%), 1-0 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Coquimbo Unido Win
44%
2.30
28%
3.58
28%
3.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
10.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Coquimbo Unido xG
Total xG
2.30
0.99
Everton de Vina xG
2.30
44%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
3.51
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.18
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
37%
2.70
27%
3.67
Win to Nil
16%
6.21
8%
12.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 10.0 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.1 | 13.0 | 6.5 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 8.5 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Coquimbo Unido vs Everton de Vina?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Coquimbo Unido and Everton de Vina expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Coquimbo Unido and 0.99 for Everton de Vina, a combined total of 2.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Coquimbo Unido vs Everton de Vina?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Coquimbo Unido's recent record stands at 17W 8D 23L from 48 games, a 1.23 PPG return, with W-W-W-D-L in the last five. The sample for Coquimbo Unido is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Everton de Vina, meanwhile, have gone 17W 19D 12L across 48 games — 1.46 PPG, with D-W-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for Everton de Vina is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Coquimbo Unido on 1.23 PPG, Everton de Vina on 1.46. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Coquimbo Unido have managed 11W 4D 8L from 23 games — 1.61 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Everton de Vina's away record stands at 6W 10D 7L across 23 trips, a 1.22 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Coquimbo Unido are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Everton de Vina are on 1.38 scored and 1.08 conceded.
Last 48 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Coquimbo Unido
Blended
Everton de Vina
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Coquimbo Unido and Everton de Vina in coming into this match?
Coquimbo Unido have gone 17W 8D 23L in their last 48 games (1.23 PPG), while Everton de Vina have gone 17W 19D 12L in their last 48 (1.46 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Coquimbo Unido at home or Everton de Vina away?
Coquimbo Unido's home record (1.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Coquimbo Unido at home: 1.61 PPG; Everton de Vina away: 1.22 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to February 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. The two were last together as recently as 22 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Coquimbo Unido's record when hosting Everton de Vina specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
2
Coquimbo Unido
4
Draws
3
Everton de Vina
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Coquimbo Unido and Everton de Vina?
From 9 meetings on record, Coquimbo Unido have won 2, Everton de Vina have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Coquimbo Unido and Everton de Vina last play each other?
They last met on 22 May 2026, when Everton de Vina 1-1 Coquimbo Unido.
Who has won more matches between Coquimbo Unido and Everton de Vina?
Everton de Vina have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Coquimbo Unido are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Everton de Vina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 26% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Coquimbo Unido at 65%, Everton de Vina at 65%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Coquimbo Unido) and 39% (Everton de Vina).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Coquimbo Unido home games / Everton de Vina away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Coquimbo Unido play Everton de Vina?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Coquimbo Unido's games and 65% of Everton de Vina's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Coquimbo Unido vs Everton de Vina usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Coquimbo Unido's recent games and 39% of Everton de Vina's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Coquimbo Unido and Everton de Vina tend to score early?
Coquimbo Unido have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Everton de Vina in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Everton de Vina cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Coquimbo Unido.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Everton de Vina beat Coquimbo Unido 0-2 at Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso, Regular Season - 19, in the Primera División. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Coquimbo Unido 1.30 xG and Everton de Vina 0.99 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Coquimbo Unido fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Everton de Vina outscored their 0.99 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Coquimbo Unido attack 1.01 / defence 0.84 against Everton de Vina attack 1.08 / defence 1.00, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Coquimbo Unido 44% | Draw 28% | Everton de Vina 28%, with Coquimbo Unido to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Everton de Vina win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Coquimbo Unido 50%, Everton de Vina 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Coquimbo Unido's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Everton de Vina's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Coquimbo Unido 1.23 PPG, Everton de Vina 1.46 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Everton de Vina win broke the near-deadlock. Coquimbo Unido (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.48 scoring average — below par going forward. Everton de Vina (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.30 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.