Coquimbo Unido 3-1 Cobresal – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Coquimbo Unido at 43%, yet in-form Cobresal provide a compelling counter-argument — this Coquimbo Unido vs Cobresal fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Primera División clash, Regular Season - 22 as Coquimbo Unido welcome Cobresal to Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso. Kick-off is set for Saturday 13 August 2022 at 01:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Coquimbo Unido — All Games: 1W 1D 8L from 10 Primera División outings this season, averaging 0.40 points per game. Last five: D L W L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Coquimbo Unido, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Coquimbo Unido have posted 4W 2D 4L at Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.40 — Coquimbo Unido are significantly better at Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso than their overall form suggests.
Across all Primera División games this season, Cobresal have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Cobresal, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cobresal's away record: 3W 1D 6L from 10 road trips in Primera División this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Form points away from home here. Cobresal's 1.40 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of Coquimbo Unido's 0.40 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Coquimbo Unido, 1 for Cobresal and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 19 Mar 2022, ended 1–2 with Cobresal winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Coquimbo Unido trading profile (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
Cobresal trading profile (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Coquimbo Unido 67% and Cobresal 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Coquimbo Unido 62% | Cobresal 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Coquimbo Unido 1.53 xG and Cobresal 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Coquimbo Unido attack 1.001 / defence 1.179 | Cobresal attack 0.909 / defence 1.033. League average goals — home 1.483 / away 1.181. Data: 21 Coquimbo Unido games / 53 Cobresal games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Coquimbo Unido 43% | Draw 25% | Cobresal 31%. Fair-value odds: Coquimbo Unido 2.33 | Draw 4.00 | Cobresal 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.80. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.80 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Coquimbo Unido at 43% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Cobresal (1.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Coquimbo Unido offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.80 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Coquimbo Unido 70% | Cobresal 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Coquimbo Unido vs Cobresal | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Aug 2022, 01:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Coquimbo Unido 43% | Draw 25% | Cobresal 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 56% | xG Coquimbo Unido 1.53 / Cobresal 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Coquimbo Unido attack 1.001 / def 1.179 | Cobresal attack 0.909 / def 1.033 | league avg home 1.483 / away 1.181 • Poisson stance: Coquimbo Unido (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
Coquimbo Unido xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Cobresal xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Coquimbo Unido vs Cobresal kick off?
Coquimbo Unido vs Cobresal kicked off at 01:30 on Saturday 13 August 2022 at Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso.
What was the final score in Coquimbo Unido vs Cobresal?
Coquimbo Unido 3 - 1 Cobresal.
Where is Coquimbo Unido vs Cobresal being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso.
What competition is Coquimbo Unido vs Cobresal part of?
Coquimbo Unido vs Cobresal is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Coquimbo Unido vs Cobresal?
Our statistical model gives Coquimbo Unido a 43% chance of winning, Cobresal a 31% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Coquimbo Unido the favourite.
Will both teams score in Coquimbo Unido vs Cobresal?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Coquimbo Unido and Cobresal will score (BTTS).
Will Coquimbo Unido vs Cobresal have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Coquimbo Unido and Cobresal?
Record (1 meetings): Coquimbo Unido 0W | Draws 0 | Cobresal 1W.
What form are Coquimbo Unido and Cobresal in?
Coquimbo Unido (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.50 | L5 D-L-W-L-L. Cobresal (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Coquimbo Unido's attacking strength (1.00x league average) is weighed against Cobresal's defensive record (1.03x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.53. The same calculation in reverse, Cobresal's attack versus Coquimbo Unido's defence, projects 1.26 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 21/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-0 (7.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Coquimbo Unido Win
43%
2.30
25%
3.94
31%
3.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
Coquimbo Unido xG
Total xG
2.80
1.26
Cobresal xG
2.30
43%
Home win
3.94
25%
Draw
3.20
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.77
44%
BTTS No
2.30
Clean Sheet
28%
3.54
22%
4.64
Win to Nil
12%
8.15
7%
14.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 7.7 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 11.8 | 7.5 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 9.1 | 5.7 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.6 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Coquimbo Unido vs Cobresal?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Coquimbo Unido and Cobresal expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Coquimbo Unido and 1.26 for Cobresal, a combined total of 2.80.
How confident is the prediction model for Coquimbo Unido vs Cobresal?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Coquimbo Unido come into this having played 21 games, going 4W 4D 13L for 0.76 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-L-L. The sample for Coquimbo Unido is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Cobresal sit at 1.48 PPG from 21 outings (9W 4D 8L), a run that reads L-W-L-L-D across their last five. The sample for Cobresal is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cobresal carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.72 PPG clear of Coquimbo Unido — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Coquimbo Unido's home form reads 4W 2D 4L across 10 games on their own ground, a 1.40 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 0.76 PPG overall — Coquimbo Unido are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Cobresal have taken 1.00 points per game from 10 outings (3W 1D 6L). That's a step down from their 1.48 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Cobresal's season.
The Goals Picture
Coquimbo Unido are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 2.05 conceded per game recently; Cobresal are on 1.38 scored and 1.19 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Coquimbo Unido have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 21 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Coquimbo Unido
Blended
Cobresal
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Coquimbo Unido and Cobresal in coming into this match?
Coquimbo Unido have gone 4W 4D 13L in their last 21 games (0.76 PPG), while Cobresal have gone 9W 4D 8L in their last 21 (1.48 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Coquimbo Unido at home or Cobresal away?
Coquimbo Unido's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Coquimbo Unido at home: 1.40 PPG; Cobresal away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Coquimbo Unido and Cobresal runs to 9 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to March 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. They last met on 3 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Coquimbo Unido have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Coquimbo Unido's record when hosting Cobresal specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
6
Coquimbo Unido
1
Draws
2
Cobresal
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Coquimbo Unido and Cobresal?
From 9 meetings on record, Coquimbo Unido have won 6, Cobresal have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Coquimbo Unido and Cobresal last play each other?
They last met on 3 April 2026, when Coquimbo Unido 3-2 Cobresal.
Who has won more matches between Coquimbo Unido and Cobresal?
Coquimbo Unido have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Coquimbo Unido are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 30% of those situations.
Cobresal see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Coquimbo Unido 70%, Cobresal 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Coquimbo Unido) and 50% (Cobresal). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Cobresal in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Coquimbo Unido home games / Cobresal away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Coquimbo Unido play Cobresal?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Coquimbo Unido's games and 50% of Cobresal's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Coquimbo Unido vs Cobresal usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Coquimbo Unido's matches and 50% of Cobresal's.
Do Coquimbo Unido and Cobresal tend to score early?
Coquimbo Unido have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Cobresal in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Coquimbo Unido cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Cobresal.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Coquimbo Unido beat Cobresal 3-1 at Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso, Regular Season - 22, in the Primera División. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Coquimbo Unido 1.53 xG and Cobresal 1.26 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Coquimbo Unido beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Coquimbo Unido attack 1.00 / defence 1.18 against Cobresal attack 0.91 / defence 1.03, drawn from 21/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Coquimbo Unido 43% | Draw 25% | Cobresal 31%, with Coquimbo Unido to win its most likely call at 43%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Coquimbo Unido 62%, Cobresal 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Coquimbo Unido's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Cobresal's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Cobresal arrived the stronger side — 1.48 PPG against 0.76. Form was overturned, with Coquimbo Unido winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Coquimbo Unido (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.70 average — above their attacking norm. Cobresal (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.