Coquimbo Unido 2-0 Cobresal – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Coquimbo Unido at 51%, yet in-form Cobresal provide a compelling counter-argument — this Coquimbo Unido vs Cobresal fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Coquimbo Unido welcome Cobresal to Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso in Primera División (matchday 28). Kick-off is Sunday 20 October 2024 at 22:30 UK time.
Form Guide
Coquimbo Unido — last 10 games: 0W 4D 6L, averaging 0.40 points per game. Last five: L D D L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Coquimbo Unido have posted 4W 4D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.40 — Coquimbo Unido are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Across their last 10 games, Cobresal have recorded 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
Cobresal's away record over their last 10 away games: 1W 4D 5L (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Form points away from home here. Cobresal's 1.40 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of Coquimbo Unido's 0.40 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 5 H2H matches we hold have produced 3 wins for Coquimbo Unido, 2 for Cobresal and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 5 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 4.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 20 May 2024, ended Coquimbo Unido 3–2 Cobresal — a Coquimbo Unido win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Coquimbo Unido trading profile (last 57 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
Cobresal trading profile (last 57 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 35%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Coquimbo Unido 61% and Cobresal 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Coquimbo Unido 53% | Cobresal 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Coquimbo Unido 1.49 xG and Cobresal 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Coquimbo Unido attack 0.930 / defence 0.956 | Cobresal attack 0.809 / defence 1.065. League average goals — home 1.504 / away 1.140. Data: built from Coquimbo Unido's last 57 games and Cobresal's last 57.
Result probabilities: Coquimbo Unido 51% | Draw 26% | Cobresal 22%. Fair-value odds: Coquimbo Unido 1.94 | Draw 3.81 | Cobresal 4.49. Coquimbo Unido hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS Yes probability 45% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 55% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Coquimbo Unido at 51% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Cobresal (1.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Coquimbo Unido offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.37 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 4.0 goals per game across 5 H2H matches points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Coquimbo Unido 50% (last 10 home games) | Cobresal 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Coquimbo Unido vs Cobresal | Competition: Primera División, matchday 28 | Venue: Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso • Kick-off: Sunday 20 October 2024 at 22:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Coquimbo Unido 51% | Draw 26% | Cobresal 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% (Under 58%) | BTTS Yes 45% (No 55%) | xG Coquimbo Unido 1.49 / Cobresal 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Coquimbo Unido attack 0.930 / def 0.956 | Cobresal attack 0.809 / def 1.065 | league avg home 1.504 / away 1.140 • Poisson stance: Coquimbo Unido (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
Coquimbo Unido xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Cobresal xG
45%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Coquimbo Unido vs Cobresal FAQs
What time does Coquimbo Unido vs Cobresal kick off?
Coquimbo Unido vs Cobresal kicked off at 22:30 UK time on Sunday 20 October 2024 at Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso.
What was the final score in Coquimbo Unido vs Cobresal?
Coquimbo Unido 2 - 0 Cobresal.
Where is Coquimbo Unido vs Cobresal being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso.
What competition is Coquimbo Unido vs Cobresal part of?
Coquimbo Unido vs Cobresal is a Primera División fixture (matchday 28) (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Coquimbo Unido vs Cobresal?
Our statistical model gives Coquimbo Unido a 51% chance of winning, Cobresal a 22% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Coquimbo Unido the favourite.
Will both teams score in Coquimbo Unido vs Cobresal?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Coquimbo Unido and Cobresal will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (55%).
Will Coquimbo Unido vs Cobresal have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (58%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Coquimbo Unido's attacking strength (0.93x league average) is weighed against Cobresal's defensive record (1.06x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.49. The same calculation in reverse, Cobresal's attack versus Coquimbo Unido's defence, projects 0.88 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Coquimbo Unido's last 57 games and Cobresal's last 57 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.3%), 0-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Coquimbo Unido Win
51%
1.94
26%
3.81
22%
4.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
2 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
Coquimbo Unido xG
Total xG
2.37
0.88
Cobresal xG
1.94
51%
Home win
3.81
26%
Draw
4.49
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.20
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
41%
2.41
23%
4.44
Win to Nil
21%
4.69
5%
19.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 8.2 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.9 | 12.3 | 5.4 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.4 | 9.1 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 5.1 | 4.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Coquimbo Unido vs Cobresal Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Coquimbo Unido vs Cobresal?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Coquimbo Unido and Cobresal expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Coquimbo Unido and 0.88 for Cobresal, a combined total of 2.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Coquimbo Unido vs Cobresal?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Coquimbo Unido come into this having played 57 games, going 25W 13D 19L for 1.54 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-L-L.
On the other side, Cobresal sit at 1.46 PPG from 57 outings (22W 17D 18L), a run that reads D-L-L-L-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Coquimbo Unido on 1.54 PPG, Cobresal on 1.46. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Coquimbo Unido's home form reads 15W 7D 6L across their last 28 home games, a 1.86 PPG return.
Away from home, Cobresal have taken 0.89 points per game from their last 28 away games (5W 10D 13L). That's a step down from their 1.46 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Cobresal's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Coquimbo Unido come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Coquimbo Unido are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Cobresal are on 1.63 scored and 1.51 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Coquimbo Unido have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games; Cobresal in 63%.
Last 57 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Coquimbo Unido
Blended
Cobresal
Blended
Coquimbo Unido (Home) vs Cobresal (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Coquimbo Unido
Blended
Cobresal
Blended
❓ Coquimbo Unido vs Cobresal Form FAQs
What form are Coquimbo Unido and Cobresal in coming into this match?
Coquimbo Unido have gone 25W 13D 19L in their last 57 games (1.54 PPG), while Cobresal have gone 22W 17D 18L in their last 57 (1.46 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Coquimbo Unido at home or Cobresal away?
Coquimbo Unido's home record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Coquimbo Unido at home: 1.86 PPG; Cobresal away: 0.89 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to March 2022. All of them came in Primera División. The most recent was as recently as 12 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
Coquimbo Unido's record when hosting Cobresal specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Coquimbo Unido
1
Draws
3
Cobresal
Recent Meetings
❓ Coquimbo Unido vs Cobresal H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Coquimbo Unido and Cobresal?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Coquimbo Unido have won 6, Cobresal have won 3, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Coquimbo Unido and Cobresal last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 12 September 2026: Cobresal 3-2 Coquimbo Unido.
Who has won more matches between Coquimbo Unido and Cobresal?
Coquimbo Unido have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Coquimbo Unido are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 43% of those situations.
Cobresal are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Coquimbo Unido 64%, Cobresal 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Coquimbo Unido) and 61% (Cobresal). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Cobresal in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Coquimbo Unido home games / Cobresal away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Coquimbo Unido vs Cobresal Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Coquimbo Unido and Cobresal matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Coquimbo Unido's games and 54% of Cobresal's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Coquimbo Unido and Cobresal matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Coquimbo Unido's matches and 61% of Cobresal's.
Do Coquimbo Unido and Cobresal matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 71% of Coquimbo Unido's recent matches and 64% of Cobresal's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Coquimbo Unido cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Cobresal.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Coquimbo Unido beat Cobresal 2-0 at Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso, Regular Season - 28, in the Primera División. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Coquimbo Unido 1.49 xG and Cobresal 0.88 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Cobresal landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Coquimbo Unido attack 0.93 / defence 0.96 against Cobresal attack 0.81 / defence 1.06, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Coquimbo Unido 51% | Draw 26% | Cobresal 22%, with Coquimbo Unido to win its most likely call at 51%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Coquimbo Unido 53%, Cobresal 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Coquimbo Unido's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Cobresal's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Coquimbo Unido 1.54 PPG, Cobresal 1.46 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Coquimbo Unido win broke the near-deadlock. Coquimbo Unido (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.04 average — tighter than their form line. Cobresal (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.18 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.