Colo Colo 4-0 Coquimbo Unido – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Colo Colo at 71%, yet other data sources diverge — this Colo Colo vs Coquimbo Unido fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Colo Colo host Coquimbo Unido at Estadio Monumental David Arellano in Primera División, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 14 May 2022 at 23:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Colo Colo — All Games: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Primera División outings this season, averaging 1.90 points per game. Last five: W W D L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Colo Colo's home record at Estadio Monumental David Arellano: 7W 0D 3L from 10 Primera División appearances (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estadio Monumental David Arellano. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Colo Colo 2.15 xG and Coquimbo Unido 0.68 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Colo Colo attack 1.353 / defence 0.841 | Coquimbo Unido attack 0.835 / defence 1.187. League average goals — home 1.336 / away 0.967. Colo Colo carry an above-average attack strength of 1.353 — their λ of 2.15 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 44 Colo Colo games / 12 Coquimbo Unido games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Colo Colo 71% | Draw 19% | Coquimbo Unido 10%. Fair-value odds: Colo Colo 1.41 | Draw 5.26 | Coquimbo Unido 10.00. The model has a clear lean to Colo Colo (71%) — a 61pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Colo Colo are the pick at 71% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.83 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Colo Colo vs Coquimbo Unido | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Estadio Monumental David Arellano • Kick-off: Saturday 14 May 2022, 23:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Colo Colo 71% | Draw 19% | Coquimbo Unido 10% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 44% | xG Colo Colo 2.15 / Coquimbo Unido 0.68 • Poisson strength factors: Colo Colo attack 1.353 / def 0.841 | Coquimbo Unido attack 0.835 / def 1.187 | league avg home 1.336 / away 0.967 • Poisson stance: Colo Colo (71%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.15
Colo Colo xG
Expected Goals
0.68
Coquimbo Unido xG
44%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Colo Colo vs Coquimbo Unido kick off?
Colo Colo vs Coquimbo Unido kicked off at 23:00 on Saturday 14 May 2022 at Estadio Monumental David Arellano.
What was the final score in Colo Colo vs Coquimbo Unido?
Colo Colo 4 - 0 Coquimbo Unido.
Where is Colo Colo vs Coquimbo Unido being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Monumental David Arellano.
What competition is Colo Colo vs Coquimbo Unido part of?
Colo Colo vs Coquimbo Unido is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Colo Colo vs Coquimbo Unido?
Our statistical model gives Colo Colo a 71% chance of winning, Coquimbo Unido a 10% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Colo Colo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Colo Colo vs Coquimbo Unido?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Colo Colo and Coquimbo Unido will score (BTTS).
Will Colo Colo vs Coquimbo Unido have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Colo Colo and Coquimbo Unido?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Colo Colo and Coquimbo Unido in?
Colo Colo (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-D-L-L. Colo Colo home split: 2.10 PPG from 10 | GF 1.40 / GA 0.40 | CS 6.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Colo Colo's attack rating (1.35) and Coquimbo Unido's defence rating (1.19), the model arrives at 2.15 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Coquimbo Unido's attack versus Colo Colo's defence, projects 0.68 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.6%), 3-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Colo Colo Win
71%
1.41
19%
5.27
10%
9.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
13.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
12.7%
Home win
3 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.15
Colo Colo xG
Total xG
2.83
0.68
Coquimbo Unido xG
1.41
71%
Home win
5.27
19%
Draw
9.89
10%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.28
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
51%
1.97
12%
8.55
Win to Nil
36%
2.78
1%
84.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 12.7 | 8.6 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.7 | 9.3 | 3.1 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 9.8 | 6.6 | 2.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 5.2 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 5 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Colo Colo vs Coquimbo Unido?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Colo Colo and Coquimbo Unido expected to score?
The model projects 2.15 expected goals for Colo Colo and 0.68 for Coquimbo Unido, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Colo Colo vs Coquimbo Unido?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 71%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
Last 0 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Colo Colo
Pre-Season
Coquimbo Unido
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. They last met on 3 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 May 2022, when Colo Colo won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Colo Colo's record when hosting Coquimbo Unido specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
5
Colo Colo
2
Draws
2
Coquimbo Unido
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Colo Colo and Coquimbo Unido?
From 9 meetings on record, Colo Colo have won 5, Coquimbo Unido have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Colo Colo and Coquimbo Unido last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when Colo Colo 3-1 Coquimbo Unido.
Who has won more matches between Colo Colo and Coquimbo Unido?
Colo Colo have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Colo Colo home games / Coquimbo Unido away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Dominant Colo Colo run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Coquimbo Unido.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Colo Colo beat Coquimbo Unido 4-0 at Estadio Monumental David Arellano, Regular Season - 13, in the Primera División. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Colo Colo 2.15 xG and Coquimbo Unido 0.68 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Colo Colo beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Colo Colo attack 1.35 / defence 0.84 against Coquimbo Unido attack 0.83 / defence 1.19, drawn from 44/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Colo Colo 71% | Draw 19% | Coquimbo Unido 10%, with Colo Colo to win its most likely call at 71%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.