Colo Colo 1-0 Antofagasta – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Colo Colo at 61% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Colo Colo vs Antofagasta encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Antofagasta make the trip to Estadio Monumental David Arellano to face Colo Colo in Primera División, Regular Season - 21. The match kicks off on Sunday 7 August 2022 at 23:15 UTC.
Current Form
Colo Colo's overall Primera División record this term: 6W 4D 0L from 10 games (2.20 PPG). Last five: D W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.60 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Colo Colo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Colo Colo's home record at Estadio Monumental David Arellano: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Primera División appearances (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estadio Monumental David Arellano. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Antofagasta (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Primera División outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: L D W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Antofagasta, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Primera División this season, Antofagasta have posted 2W 1D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Colo Colo. A 1.10 PPG lead over Antofagasta (2.20 vs 1.10) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Colo Colo lead 2W to 1W over the last 3 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 3 previous contests averaged 1.3 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 14 Mar 2022, ended 1–0 with Colo Colo winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Colo Colo goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (52 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 48% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 28% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
Antofagasta goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (52 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 28% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Colo Colo 44% versus Antofagasta 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Colo Colo 42% | Antofagasta 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Colo Colo 1.58 xG and Antofagasta 0.60 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Colo Colo attack 1.192 / defence 0.640 | Antofagasta attack 0.823 / defence 0.899. League average goals — home 1.478 / away 1.146. Colo Colo's defence rating of 0.640 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 52 Colo Colo games / 52 Antofagasta games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Colo Colo 61% | Draw 25% | Antofagasta 14%. Fair-value odds: Colo Colo 1.64 | Draw 4.00 | Antofagasta 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Colo Colo (61%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 2.19. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.19 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Colo Colo are the pick at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.19 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 37% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.3 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 36% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Colo Colo 30% | Antofagasta 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Colo Colo vs Antofagasta | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Estadio Monumental David Arellano • Kick-off: Sunday 7 Aug 2022, 23:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Colo Colo 61% | Draw 25% | Antofagasta 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 36% | xG Colo Colo 1.58 / Antofagasta 0.60 • Poisson strength factors: Colo Colo attack 1.192 / def 0.640 | Antofagasta attack 0.823 / def 0.899 | league avg home 1.478 / away 1.146 • Poisson stance: Colo Colo (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.58
Colo Colo xG
Expected Goals
0.60
Antofagasta xG
36%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Colo Colo vs Antofagasta kick off?
Colo Colo vs Antofagasta kicked off at 23:15 on Sunday 7 August 2022 at Estadio Monumental David Arellano.
What was the final score in Colo Colo vs Antofagasta?
Colo Colo 1 - 0 Antofagasta.
Where is Colo Colo vs Antofagasta being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Monumental David Arellano.
What competition is Colo Colo vs Antofagasta part of?
Colo Colo vs Antofagasta is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Colo Colo vs Antofagasta?
Our statistical model gives Colo Colo a 61% chance of winning, Antofagasta a 14% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Colo Colo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Colo Colo vs Antofagasta?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Colo Colo and Antofagasta will score (BTTS).
Will Colo Colo vs Antofagasta have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Colo Colo and Antofagasta?
Record (3 meetings): Colo Colo 2W | Draws 0 | Antofagasta 1W.
What form are Colo Colo and Antofagasta in?
Colo Colo (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-W-W-W-W. Antofagasta (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Colo Colo's attack at 1.19x the league average against Antofagasta's defence at 0.90x — combine the two and it projects 1.58 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Antofagasta's attack (0.82x) against Colo Colo's defence (0.64x) — and the away total comes out at 0.60.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (14.1%), 0-0 (12.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Colo Colo Win
61%
1.64
25%
3.93
14%
7.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
14.1%
Home win
0 – 0
11.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.58
Colo Colo xG
Total xG
2.19
0.60
Antofagasta xG
1.64
61%
Home win
3.93
25%
Draw
7.34
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.75
64%
BTTS No
1.57
Clean Sheet
55%
1.83
21%
4.87
Win to Nil
33%
3.00
3%
35.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.2 | 6.8 | 2.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 17.8 | 10.7 | 3.2 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 14.1 | 8.5 | 2.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 7.4 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 2.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Colo Colo vs Antofagasta?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.4%.
How many goals are Colo Colo and Antofagasta expected to score?
The model projects 1.58 expected goals for Colo Colo and 0.60 for Antofagasta, a combined total of 2.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Colo Colo vs Antofagasta?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Colo Colo come into this having played 52 games, going 31W 11D 10L for 2.00 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-W-W. The sample for Colo Colo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Antofagasta sit at 1.25 PPG from 52 outings (16W 17D 19L), a run that reads L-D-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for Antofagasta is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Colo Colo carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.75 PPG clear of Antofagasta — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Colo Colo's home form reads 16W 4D 5L across 25 games on their own ground, a 2.08 PPG return.
Away from home, Antofagasta have taken 0.88 points per game from 25 outings (4W 10D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Colo Colo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Colo Colo are averaging 1.69 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per game recently; Antofagasta are on 1.02 scored and 1.17 conceded.
Defensively: Colo Colo have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 52 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Colo Colo
Blended
Antofagasta
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Colo Colo and Antofagasta in coming into this match?
Colo Colo have gone 31W 11D 10L in their last 52 games (2.00 PPG), while Antofagasta have gone 16W 17D 19L in their last 52 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Colo Colo at home or Antofagasta away?
Colo Colo's home record (2.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Colo Colo at home: 2.08 PPG; Antofagasta away: 0.88 PPG.
Have Colo Colo or Antofagasta been keeping clean sheets recently?
Colo Colo have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Antofagasta in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 August 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Colo Colo have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Colo Colo have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Antofagasta — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Colo Colo
0
Draws
1
Antofagasta
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Colo Colo and Antofagasta?
From 4 meetings on record, Colo Colo have won 3, Antofagasta have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Colo Colo and Antofagasta last play each other?
They last met on 7 August 2022, when Colo Colo 1-0 Antofagasta.
Who has won more matches between Colo Colo and Antofagasta?
Colo Colo have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Colo Colo see a goal before the break in 48% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Antofagasta are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Colo Colo 28%, Antofagasta 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 36% for Colo Colo and 28% for Antofagasta.
On the defensive side: Colo Colo keep a clean sheet in 60% of their matches; Antofagasta in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Colo Colo home games / Antofagasta away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Colo Colo play Antofagasta?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 28% of Colo Colo's recent matches and 44% of Antofagasta's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Colo Colo vs Antofagasta usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Colo Colo's recent games and 28% of Antofagasta's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Colo Colo and Antofagasta tend to score early?
Colo Colo have had a goal before half-time in 48% of their recent matches, Antofagasta in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Colo Colo edge out Antofagasta 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Colo Colo beat Antofagasta 1-0 at Estadio Monumental David Arellano, Regular Season - 21, in the Primera División. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Colo Colo 1.58 xG and Antofagasta 0.60 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Colo Colo attack 1.19 / defence 0.64 against Antofagasta attack 0.82 / defence 0.90, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Colo Colo 61% | Draw 25% | Antofagasta 14%, with Colo Colo to win its most likely call at 61%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Colo Colo 42%, Antofagasta 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Colo Colo's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and duly kept one.
Antofagasta's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Colo Colo arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.25. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.