Cobresal 3-2 U. Catolica – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Cobresal at 47%, yet in-form U. Catolica provide a compelling counter-argument — this Cobresal vs U. Catolica fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Cobresal host U. Catolica at El Cobre in Primera División, Regular Season - 3. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 14 February 2026 at 23:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cobresal stand at 5W 0D 5L from 10 Primera División matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L L W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Cobresal have posted 6W 1D 3L at El Cobre — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Primera División games this season, U. Catolica have recorded 8W 1D 1L from 10 outings — 2.50 PPG. Last five: L W W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
U. Catolica's away record: 4W 5D 1L from 10 road trips in Primera División this season (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.70 is notably below their overall 2.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. U. Catolica are 1.00 PPG ahead (2.50 vs 1.50), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 8 previous meetings, Cobresal have won 2, U. Catolica 3, with 3 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 8 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.2 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 30 Aug 2025, ended 1–2 with U. Catolica winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Cobresal in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games).
U. Catolica in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cobresal 58% versus U. Catolica 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cobresal 63% | U. Catolica 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cobresal 1.38 xG and U. Catolica 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cobresal attack 1.003 / defence 0.847 | U. Catolica attack 1.147 / defence 0.929. League average goals — home 1.484 / away 0.972. Data: 32 Cobresal games / 32 U. Catolica games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Cobresal 47% | Draw 27% | U. Catolica 26%. Fair-value odds: Cobresal 2.13 | Draw 3.70 | U. Catolica 3.85. Cobresal hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Cobresal are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form U. Catolica (2.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cobresal offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.33 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 41% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates are neutral: Cobresal 60% | U. Catolica 50%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (32 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cobresal vs U. Catolica | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: El Cobre • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Feb 2026, 23:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cobresal 47% | Draw 27% | U. Catolica 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 46% | xG Cobresal 1.38 / U. Catolica 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Cobresal attack 1.003 / def 0.847 | U. Catolica attack 1.147 / def 0.929 | league avg home 1.484 / away 0.972 • Poisson stance: Cobresal (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Cobresal xG
Expected Goals
0.94
U. Catolica xG
46%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cobresal vs U. Catolica kick off?
Cobresal vs U. Catolica kicked off at 23:30 on Saturday 14 February 2026 at El Cobre.
What was the final score in Cobresal vs U. Catolica?
Cobresal 3 - 2 U. Catolica.
Where is Cobresal vs U. Catolica being played?
The match is being played at El Cobre.
What competition is Cobresal vs U. Catolica part of?
Cobresal vs U. Catolica is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Cobresal vs U. Catolica?
Our statistical model gives Cobresal a 47% chance of winning, U. Catolica a 26% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Cobresal the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cobresal vs U. Catolica?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Cobresal and U. Catolica will score (BTTS).
Will Cobresal vs U. Catolica have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cobresal and U. Catolica?
Record (8 meetings): Cobresal 2W | Draws 3 | U. Catolica 3W.
What form are Cobresal and U. Catolica in?
Cobresal (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-L-W-L. U. Catolica (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.50 | L5 L-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Cobresal's attack at 1.00x the league average against U. Catolica's defence at 0.93x — combine the two and it projects 1.38 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, U. Catolica's attack versus Cobresal's defence, projects 0.94 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (32/32 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.8%), 0-0 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cobresal Win
47%
2.13
27%
3.66
26%
3.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
9.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Cobresal xG
Total xG
2.33
0.94
U. Catolica xG
2.13
47%
Home win
3.66
27%
Draw
3.90
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.18
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
39%
2.57
25%
3.99
Win to Nil
18%
5.47
6%
15.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 9.2 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.5 | 12.7 | 6.0 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 8.8 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cobresal vs U. Catolica?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Cobresal and U. Catolica expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Cobresal and 0.94 for U. Catolica, a combined total of 2.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Cobresal vs U. Catolica?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 60 outings, Cobresal have picked up 1.33 PPG on a 22W 14D 24L record — W-L-L-W-L across the most recent five.
U. Catolica's form line: 30W 14D 16L from 60 games, 1.73 PPG, last five L-W-W-D-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cobresal on 1.33 PPG, U. Catolica on 1.73. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Cobresal have posted 1.83 PPG from 30 outings (16W 7D 7L). That's noticeably better than their 1.33 PPG overall — Cobresal are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, U. Catolica have gone 12W 11D 7L from 30 away games — 1.57 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Cobresal are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; U. Catolica are on 1.47 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Defensively: U. Catolica in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cobresal
Current Season
U. Catolica
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cobresal and U. Catolica in coming into this match?
Cobresal have gone 22W 14D 24L in their last 60 games (1.33 PPG), while U. Catolica have gone 30W 14D 16L in their last 60 (1.73 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cobresal at home or U. Catolica away?
Cobresal's home record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cobresal at home: 1.83 PPG; U. Catolica away: 1.57 PPG.
Have Cobresal or U. Catolica been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cobresal have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, U. Catolica in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to March 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. The two were last together as recently as 8 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Cobresal's record when hosting U. Catolica specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Cobresal
3
Draws
4
U. Catolica
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cobresal and U. Catolica?
From 10 meetings on record, Cobresal have won 3, U. Catolica have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Cobresal and U. Catolica last play each other?
They last met on 8 August 2026, when U. Catolica 2-0 Cobresal.
Who has won more matches between Cobresal and U. Catolica?
U. Catolica have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cobresal are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
U. Catolica see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cobresal 73%, U. Catolica 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 73% (Cobresal) and 37% (U. Catolica). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 17% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: U. Catolica in 33%; U. Catolica in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cobresal home games / U. Catolica away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cobresal play U. Catolica?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 73% of Cobresal's games and 50% of U. Catolica's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cobresal vs U. Catolica usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of Cobresal's matches and 37% of U. Catolica's.
Do Cobresal and U. Catolica tend to score early?
Cobresal have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, U. Catolica in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Cobresal edge out U. Catolica 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cobresal beat U. Catolica 3-2 at El Cobre, Regular Season - 3, in the Primera División. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cobresal 1.38 xG and U. Catolica 0.94 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Cobresal beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. U. Catolica outscored their 0.94 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cobresal attack 1.00 / defence 0.85 against U. Catolica attack 1.15 / defence 0.93, drawn from 32/32 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Cobresal 47% | Draw 27% | U. Catolica 26%, with Cobresal to win its most likely call at 47%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cobresal 63%, U. Catolica 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cobresal's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
U. Catolica's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cobresal 1.33 PPG, U. Catolica 1.73 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cobresal win broke the near-deadlock. Cobresal (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.80 average — above their attacking norm. U. Catolica (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 0.93 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.