Cobresal 3-2 Everton de Vina – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cobresal at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cobresal vs Everton de Vina fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estadio El Cobre plays host to Cobresal versus Everton de Vina in Primera División, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off: Sunday 5 March 2023 at 23:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Cobresal have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Primera División outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: W D L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Cobresal at Estadio El Cobre this season: 7W 2D 1L from 10 home games — 2.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estadio El Cobre. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Cobresal are significantly better at Estadio El Cobre than their overall form suggests.
Everton de Vina (all games): 3W 5D 2L across 10 Primera División outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: W D D W L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.10. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Everton de Vina's away record: 2W 5D 3L from 10 road trips in Primera División this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.50 vs 1.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Cobresal, 0 for Everton de Vina and 3 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.3 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 10 Oct 2022, ended 3–3 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Cobresal half-time and goal-timing data (62 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Everton de Vina half-time and goal-timing data (62 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cobresal 56% versus Everton de Vina 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cobresal 50% | Everton de Vina 32%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cobresal 1.51 xG and Everton de Vina 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cobresal attack 0.980 / defence 0.832 | Everton de Vina attack 1.035 / defence 0.949. League average goals — home 1.620 / away 1.283. Data: 36 Cobresal games / 36 Everton de Vina games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cobresal 46% | Draw 27% | Everton de Vina 27%. Fair-value odds: Cobresal 2.17 | Draw 3.70 | Everton de Vina 3.70. Cobresal hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cobresal at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cobresal if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.61 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates are neutral: Cobresal 30% | Everton de Vina 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cobresal vs Everton de Vina | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Estadio El Cobre • Kick-off: Sunday 5 Mar 2023, 23:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cobresal 46% | Draw 27% | Everton de Vina 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 53% | xG Cobresal 1.51 / Everton de Vina 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Cobresal attack 0.980 / def 0.832 | Everton de Vina attack 1.035 / def 0.949 | league avg home 1.620 / away 1.283 • Poisson stance: Cobresal (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Cobresal xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Everton de Vina xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cobresal vs Everton de Vina kick off?
Cobresal vs Everton de Vina kicked off at 23:30 on Sunday 5 March 2023 at Estadio El Cobre.
What was the final score in Cobresal vs Everton de Vina?
Cobresal 3 - 2 Everton de Vina.
Where is Cobresal vs Everton de Vina being played?
The match is being played at Estadio El Cobre.
What competition is Cobresal vs Everton de Vina part of?
Cobresal vs Everton de Vina is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Cobresal vs Everton de Vina?
Our statistical model gives Cobresal a 46% chance of winning, Everton de Vina a 27% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Cobresal the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cobresal vs Everton de Vina?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Cobresal and Everton de Vina will score (BTTS).
Will Cobresal vs Everton de Vina have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cobresal and Everton de Vina?
Record (3 meetings): Cobresal 0W | Draws 3 | Everton de Vina 0W.
What form are Cobresal and Everton de Vina in?
Cobresal (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-L-W-W. Everton de Vina (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Cobresal's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against Everton de Vina's defensive record (0.95x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.51. Flip it around — Everton de Vina's attack (1.03x) against Cobresal's defence (0.83x) — and the away total comes out at 1.10.
These ratings are built from 36/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.5%), 2-1 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cobresal Win
46%
2.19
27%
3.65
27%
3.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
Cobresal xG
Total xG
2.61
1.10
Everton de Vina xG
2.19
46%
Home win
3.65
27%
Draw
3.71
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
33%
3.02
22%
4.51
Win to Nil
15%
6.62
6%
16.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 8.1 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 12.2 | 6.8 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.2 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 4.6 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cobresal vs Everton de Vina?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Cobresal and Everton de Vina expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Cobresal and 1.10 for Everton de Vina, a combined total of 2.61.
How confident is the prediction model for Cobresal vs Everton de Vina?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Cobresal come into this having played 62 games, going 24W 13D 25L for 1.37 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-W-W.
On the other side, Everton de Vina sit at 1.31 PPG from 62 outings (19W 24D 19L), a run that reads W-D-D-W-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.37 PPG for Cobresal against 1.31 for Everton de Vina. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Cobresal's home form reads 16W 7D 8L across 31 games on their own ground, a 1.77 PPG return.
Away from home, Everton de Vina have taken 1.16 points per game from 31 outings (8W 12D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cobresal come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Cobresal are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Everton de Vina are on 1.11 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Last 62 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cobresal
Current Season
Everton de Vina
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cobresal and Everton de Vina in coming into this match?
Cobresal have gone 24W 13D 25L in their last 62 games (1.37 PPG), while Everton de Vina have gone 19W 24D 19L in their last 62 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cobresal at home or Everton de Vina away?
Cobresal's home record (1.77 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cobresal at home: 1.77 PPG; Everton de Vina away: 1.16 PPG.
Have Cobresal or Everton de Vina been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cobresal have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Everton de Vina in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. They last met on 26 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Everton de Vina go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cobresal have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Everton de Vina — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Cobresal
6
Draws
2
Everton de Vina
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cobresal and Everton de Vina?
From 10 meetings on record, Cobresal have won 2, Everton de Vina have won 2, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Cobresal and Everton de Vina last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2026, when Everton de Vina 3-1 Cobresal.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Cobresal are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Everton de Vina see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cobresal 55%, Everton de Vina 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Cobresal) and 29% (Everton de Vina).
On the defensive side: Cobresal keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Everton de Vina in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cobresal home games / Everton de Vina away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cobresal play Everton de Vina?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 55% of Cobresal's recent matches and 52% of Everton de Vina's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cobresal vs Everton de Vina usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Cobresal's recent games and 29% of Everton de Vina's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cobresal and Everton de Vina tend to score early?
Cobresal have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Everton de Vina in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Cobresal edge out Everton de Vina 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cobresal beat Everton de Vina 3-2 at Estadio El Cobre, Regular Season - 7, in the Primera División. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cobresal 1.51 xG and Everton de Vina 1.10 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Cobresal beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Everton de Vina outscored their 1.10 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cobresal attack 0.98 / defence 0.83 against Everton de Vina attack 1.03 / defence 0.95, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cobresal 46% | Draw 27% | Everton de Vina 27%, with Cobresal to win its most likely call at 46%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cobresal 50%, Everton de Vina 32%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cobresal's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Everton de Vina's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cobresal 1.37 PPG, Everton de Vina 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cobresal win broke the near-deadlock. Cobresal (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.55 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.97 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Everton de Vina (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.13 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.10 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.