Antofagasta 2-0 Union Espanola – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Union Espanola at 38% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Antofagasta vs Union Espanola encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Antofagasta and Union Espanola meet at Estadio Regional Calvo y Bascuñán in Primera División, Regular Season - 28. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 23 October 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Antofagasta's overall Primera División record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: W L D L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Antofagasta, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Antofagasta have posted 3W 5D 2L at Estadio Regional Calvo y Bascuñán — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estadio Regional Calvo y Bascuñán.
Union Espanola have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Primera División outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: L L L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Union Espanola, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Union Espanola's form when playing away from home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.60 exceeds their overall 0.80 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.10 vs 0.80 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Antofagasta, 2 for Union Espanola and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 May 2022, ended 0–2 with Union Espanola winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Antofagasta — key trading statistics (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Union Espanola — key trading statistics (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Antofagasta 48% versus Union Espanola 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Antofagasta 37% | Union Espanola 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Antofagasta 1.27 xG and Union Espanola 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Antofagasta attack 0.790 / defence 1.054 | Union Espanola attack 1.086 / defence 1.206. League average goals — home 1.334 / away 1.165. Antofagasta's attack strength of 0.790 is below the league average — the 1.27 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Union Espanola bring a strong defensive rating of 1.206 — this is suppressing Antofagasta's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 59 Antofagasta games / 59 Union Espanola games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Antofagasta 35% | Draw 26% | Union Espanola 38%. Fair-value odds: Antofagasta 2.86 | Draw 3.85 | Union Espanola 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Union Espanola are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Union Espanola if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.60 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates are neutral: Antofagasta 40% | Union Espanola 60%.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Antofagasta vs Union Espanola | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Estadio Regional Calvo y Bascuñán • Kick-off: Sunday 23 Oct 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Antofagasta 35% | Draw 26% | Union Espanola 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 53% | xG Antofagasta 1.27 / Union Espanola 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Antofagasta attack 0.790 / def 1.054 | Union Espanola attack 1.086 / def 1.206 | league avg home 1.334 / away 1.165 • Poisson stance: Union Espanola (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Antofagasta xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Union Espanola xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Antofagasta vs Union Espanola kick off?
Antofagasta vs Union Espanola kicked off at 19:00 on Sunday 23 October 2022 at Estadio Regional Calvo y Bascuñán.
What was the final score in Antofagasta vs Union Espanola?
Antofagasta 2 - 0 Union Espanola.
Where is Antofagasta vs Union Espanola being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Regional Calvo y Bascuñán.
What competition is Antofagasta vs Union Espanola part of?
Antofagasta vs Union Espanola is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Antofagasta vs Union Espanola?
Our statistical model gives Antofagasta a 35% chance of winning, Union Espanola a 38% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Union Espanola the favourite.
Will both teams score in Antofagasta vs Union Espanola?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Antofagasta and Union Espanola will score (BTTS).
Will Antofagasta vs Union Espanola have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Antofagasta and Union Espanola?
Record (3 meetings): Antofagasta 0W | Draws 1 | Union Espanola 2W.
What form are Antofagasta and Union Espanola in?
Antofagasta (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-D-L-L. Union Espanola (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Antofagasta's attack at 0.79x the league average against Union Espanola's defence at 1.21x — combine the two and it projects 1.27 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Union Espanola's attack (1.09x) against Antofagasta's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 1.33.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.0%), 1-2 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Union Espanola Win
35%
2.83
26%
3.79
38%
2.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.9%
Away win
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Antofagasta xG
Total xG
2.60
1.33
Union Espanola xG
2.83
35%
Home win
3.79
26%
Draw
2.61
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
26%
3.79
28%
3.56
Win to Nil
9%
10.73
11%
9.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 9.9 | 6.6 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 12.5 | 8.4 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 8.0 | 5.3 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.4 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Antofagasta vs Union Espanola?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Antofagasta and Union Espanola expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Antofagasta and 1.33 for Union Espanola, a combined total of 2.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Antofagasta vs Union Espanola?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Antofagasta come into this having played 59 games, going 17W 19D 23L for 1.19 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-L-L. The sample for Antofagasta is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Union Espanola sit at 1.44 PPG from 59 outings (25W 10D 24L), a run that reads L-L-L-D-L across their last five. The sample for Union Espanola is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.19 PPG for Antofagasta against 1.44 for Union Espanola. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Antofagasta's home form reads 12W 8D 9L across 29 games on their own ground, a 1.52 PPG return.
Away from home, Union Espanola have taken 1.31 points per game from 29 outings (12W 2D 15L).
Attack vs Defence
Antofagasta are averaging 0.93 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; Union Espanola are on 1.41 scored and 1.47 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Union Espanola in 63%.
Last 59 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Antofagasta
Blended
Union Espanola
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Antofagasta and Union Espanola in coming into this match?
Antofagasta have gone 17W 19D 23L in their last 59 games (1.19 PPG), while Union Espanola have gone 25W 10D 24L in their last 59 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Antofagasta at home or Union Espanola away?
Antofagasta's home record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Antofagasta at home: 1.52 PPG; Union Espanola away: 1.31 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 October 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Antofagasta have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Union Espanola — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Antofagasta
1
Draws
2
Union Espanola
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Antofagasta and Union Espanola?
From 4 meetings on record, Antofagasta have won 1, Union Espanola have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Antofagasta and Union Espanola last play each other?
They last met on 23 October 2022, when Antofagasta 2-0 Union Espanola.
Who has won more matches between Antofagasta and Union Espanola?
Union Espanola have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Antofagasta see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Union Espanola are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Antofagasta 52%, Union Espanola 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Antofagasta) and 59% (Union Espanola).
On the defensive side: Antofagasta keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; Antofagasta have failed to score in 28% of games; Union Espanola in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Antofagasta home games / Union Espanola away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Antofagasta play Union Espanola?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Antofagasta's recent matches and 52% of Union Espanola's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Antofagasta vs Union Espanola usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Antofagasta's recent games and 59% of Union Espanola's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Antofagasta and Union Espanola tend to score early?
Antofagasta have had a goal before half-time in 54% of their recent matches, Union Espanola in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Antofagasta cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Union Espanola.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Antofagasta beat Union Espanola 2-0 at Estadio Regional Calvo y Bascuñán, Regular Season - 28, in the Primera División. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Antofagasta 1.27 xG and Union Espanola 1.33 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Union Espanola landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Antofagasta attack 0.79 / defence 1.05 against Union Espanola attack 1.09 / defence 1.21, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Antofagasta 35% | Draw 26% | Union Espanola 38%, with Union Espanola to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Antofagasta win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Antofagasta 37%, Union Espanola 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Antofagasta's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not.
Union Espanola's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Antofagasta 1.19 PPG, Union Espanola 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Antofagasta win broke the near-deadlock. Antofagasta (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.07 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.07 average — tighter than their form line. Union Espanola (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.31 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.