Union La Calera 0-1 Everton de Vina – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Everton de Vina at 42%, yet the head-to-head data favours Union La Calera — this Union La Calera vs Everton de Vina fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Union La Calera host Everton de Vina at Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar in Primera División (matchday 9). Kick-off is Saturday 20 April 2024 at 02:30 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Union La Calera stand at 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L W W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Union La Calera have gone 3W 3D 4L in their last 10 home games (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, Everton de Vina have recorded 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W D W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Everton de Vina's form when playing away from home: 7W 1D 2L across their last 10 road games (2.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 2.20 exceeds their overall 1.40 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Union La Calera at 1.40 PPG versus Everton de Vina's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
Union La Calera hold a clear advantage across the 5 H2H matches in our data, with 4 wins compared to 0 for Everton de Vina and 1 draw.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.8 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 16 Jul 2023, ended Union La Calera 2–1 Everton de Vina — a Union La Calera win.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both Union La Calera and goals — 4 wins from 5 H2H matches and an average of 2.8 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.
Trading Patterns
Union La Calera in-play and half-time data (last 60 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 63% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Everton de Vina in-play and half-time data (last 60 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Union La Calera 60% versus Everton de Vina 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Union La Calera 50% | Everton de Vina 42%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Union La Calera surrender their half-time lead 33% of the time, while Everton de Vina have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 50% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Union La Calera 1.69 xG and Everton de Vina 1.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union La Calera attack 0.861 / defence 1.232 | Everton de Vina attack 1.212 / defence 1.430. League average goals — home 1.368 / away 1.222. Everton de Vina's defence rating of 1.430 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Union La Calera's projected output up. Everton de Vina have an above-average attack rating of 1.212, which lifts their away xG to 1.82. Union La Calera's defence rating of 1.232 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Everton de Vina's projected output up. Data: built from Union La Calera's last 38 games and Everton de Vina's last 38.
Result probabilities: Union La Calera 36% | Draw 22% | Everton de Vina 42%. Fair-value odds: Union La Calera 2.77 | Draw 4.51 | Everton de Vina 2.39. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 22% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS Yes probability 68% | Total xG 3.51. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.51 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% — both xG figures (1.69 / 1.82) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Everton de Vina at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Everton de Vina offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.51 combined xG gives a 68% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Union La Calera's last 10 home games and Everton de Vina's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 2.8 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 68% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Union La Calera 70% (last 10 home games) | Everton de Vina 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Union La Calera vs Everton de Vina | Competition: Primera División, matchday 9 | Venue: Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar • Kick-off: Saturday 20 April 2024 at 02:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Union La Calera 36% | Draw 22% | Everton de Vina 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% (Under 32%) | BTTS Yes 68% (No 32%) | xG Union La Calera 1.69 / Everton de Vina 1.82 • Poisson strength factors: Union La Calera attack 0.861 / def 1.232 | Everton de Vina attack 1.212 / def 1.430 | league avg home 1.368 / away 1.222 • Poisson stance: Everton de Vina (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.69
Union La Calera xG
Expected Goals
1.82
Everton de Vina xG
68%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Union La Calera vs Everton de Vina FAQs
What time does Union La Calera vs Everton de Vina kick off?
Union La Calera vs Everton de Vina kicked off at 02:30 UK time on Saturday 20 April 2024 at Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar.
What was the final score in Union La Calera vs Everton de Vina?
Union La Calera 0 - 1 Everton de Vina.
Where is Union La Calera vs Everton de Vina being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar.
What competition is Union La Calera vs Everton de Vina part of?
Union La Calera vs Everton de Vina is a Primera División fixture (matchday 9) (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Union La Calera vs Everton de Vina?
Our statistical model gives Union La Calera a 36% chance of winning, Everton de Vina a 42% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Everton de Vina the favourite.
Will both teams score in Union La Calera vs Everton de Vina?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both Union La Calera and Everton de Vina will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Union La Calera vs Everton de Vina have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Union La Calera's attack at 0.86x the league average against Everton de Vina's defence at 1.43x — combine the two and it projects 1.69 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Everton de Vina's attack versus Union La Calera's defence, projects 1.82 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Union La Calera's last 38 games and Everton de Vina's last 38 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.4%), 2-1 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Everton de Vina Win
36%
2.77
22%
4.51
42%
2.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.4%
Away win
2 – 1
7.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.69
Union La Calera xG
Total xG
3.51
1.82
Everton de Vina xG
2.77
36%
Home win
4.51
22%
Draw
2.39
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.46
32%
BTTS No
3.16
Clean Sheet
16%
6.20
19%
5.40
Win to Nil
6%
17.21
8%
12.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.0 | 5.5 | 5.0 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 5.0 | 9.2 | 8.4 | 5.1 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 7.7 | 7.1 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 4.4 | 4.0 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Union La Calera vs Everton de Vina Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Union La Calera vs Everton de Vina?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.4%.
How many goals are Union La Calera and Everton de Vina expected to score?
The model projects 1.69 expected goals for Union La Calera and 1.82 for Everton de Vina, a combined total of 3.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Union La Calera vs Everton de Vina?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Union La Calera come into this having played 60 games, going 19W 23D 18L for 1.33 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-W-L.
On the other side, Everton de Vina sit at 1.45 PPG from 60 outings (22W 21D 17L), a run that reads W-D-W-L-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Union La Calera on 1.33 PPG, Everton de Vina on 1.45. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Union La Calera's home form reads 11W 12D 7L across their last 30 home games, a 1.50 PPG return.
Away from home, Everton de Vina have taken 1.43 points per game from their last 30 away games (11W 10D 9L).
Goals in Recent Form
Union La Calera are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Everton de Vina are on 1.37 scored and 1.10 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Union La Calera have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Union La Calera
Current Season
Everton de Vina
Current Season
Union La Calera (Home) vs Everton de Vina (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Union La Calera
Current Season
Everton de Vina
Current Season
❓ Union La Calera vs Everton de Vina Form FAQs
What form are Union La Calera and Everton de Vina in coming into this match?
Union La Calera have gone 19W 23D 18L in their last 60 games (1.33 PPG), while Everton de Vina have gone 22W 21D 17L in their last 60 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Union La Calera at home or Everton de Vina away?
Union La Calera's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Union La Calera at home: 1.50 PPG; Everton de Vina away: 1.43 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from November 2021. All of them came in Primera División. The most recent was on 27 July 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Union La Calera's record when hosting Everton de Vina specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Union La Calera
3
Draws
1
Everton de Vina
Recent Meetings
❓ Union La Calera vs Everton de Vina H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Union La Calera and Everton de Vina?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Union La Calera have won 6, Everton de Vina have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Union La Calera and Everton de Vina last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 27 July 2026: Union La Calera 1-1 Everton de Vina.
Who has won more matches between Union La Calera and Everton de Vina?
Union La Calera have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Union La Calera are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 30% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Everton de Vina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 60% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Union La Calera 60%, Everton de Vina 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Union La Calera) and 37% (Everton de Vina).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Union La Calera home games / Everton de Vina away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Union La Calera vs Everton de Vina Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Union La Calera and Everton de Vina matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Union La Calera's games and 57% of Everton de Vina's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Union La Calera and Everton de Vina matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Union La Calera's recent games and 37% of Everton de Vina's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Union La Calera and Everton de Vina matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 63% of Union La Calera's recent matches and 73% of Everton de Vina's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Everton de Vina edge out Union La Calera 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Everton de Vina beat Union La Calera 0-1 at Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar, Regular Season - 9, in the Primera División. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Union La Calera 1.69 xG and Everton de Vina 1.82 xG, a combined 3.51. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Union La Calera fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Everton de Vina landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union La Calera attack 0.86 / defence 1.23 against Everton de Vina attack 1.21 / defence 1.43, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Union La Calera 36% | Draw 22% | Everton de Vina 42%, with Everton de Vina to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 87% and missed. Over 3.5 was 47% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union La Calera 50%, Everton de Vina 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Union La Calera's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Everton de Vina's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Union La Calera 1.33 PPG, Everton de Vina 1.45 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Everton de Vina win broke the near-deadlock. Union La Calera (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.43 scoring average — below par going forward. Everton de Vina (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.