Union Espanola 1-3 Curico Unido – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Union Espanola at 48% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Union Espanola vs Curico Unido encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Primera División encounter, Regular Season - 19 sees Curico Unido travel to Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK to take on Union Espanola. The game is scheduled for Monday 25 July 2022, 23:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Union Espanola — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Primera División outings this season, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: W W D L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Union Espanola, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Union Espanola have posted 4W 4D 2L at Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Curico Unido stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Primera División matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: L W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Curico Unido, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Curico Unido's form when playing away from home: 3W 5D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Union Espanola 1.80 PPG, Curico Unido 2.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Union Espanola register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Curico Unido in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The fixture history tells a clear story: Union Espanola have dominated this rivalry, winning 3 of 3 past contests while Curico Unido have managed just 0 wins.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Feb 2022, ended 1–0 with Union Espanola winning.
The historical record gives Union Espanola a meaningful edge here — 3 wins from 3 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Union Espanola in-play tendencies (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Curico Unido in-play tendencies (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Union Espanola 63% versus Curico Unido 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Union Espanola 55% | Curico Unido 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Union Espanola 1.57 xG and Curico Unido 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union Espanola attack 1.038 / defence 0.943 | Curico Unido attack 1.150 / defence 1.018. League average goals — home 1.487 / away 1.028. Data: 49 Union Espanola games / 50 Curico Unido games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Union Espanola 48% | Draw 25% | Curico Unido 27%. Fair-value odds: Union Espanola 2.08 | Draw 4.00 | Curico Unido 3.70. Union Espanola hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Union Espanola at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Union Espanola offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.69 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 50% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate: Union Espanola 60% | Curico Unido 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Union Espanola vs Curico Unido | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK • Kick-off: Monday 25 Jul 2022, 23:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Union Espanola 48% | Draw 25% | Curico Unido 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 53% | xG Union Espanola 1.57 / Curico Unido 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Union Espanola attack 1.038 / def 0.943 | Curico Unido attack 1.150 / def 1.018 | league avg home 1.487 / away 1.028 • Poisson stance: Union Espanola (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
Union Espanola xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Curico Unido xG
53%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Union Espanola vs Curico Unido kick off?
Union Espanola vs Curico Unido kicked off at 23:00 on Monday 25 July 2022 at Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK.
What was the final score in Union Espanola vs Curico Unido?
Union Espanola 1 - 3 Curico Unido.
Where is Union Espanola vs Curico Unido being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK.
What competition is Union Espanola vs Curico Unido part of?
Union Espanola vs Curico Unido is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Union Espanola vs Curico Unido?
Our statistical model gives Union Espanola a 48% chance of winning, Curico Unido a 27% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Union Espanola the favourite.
Will both teams score in Union Espanola vs Curico Unido?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Union Espanola and Curico Unido will score (BTTS).
Will Union Espanola vs Curico Unido have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Union Espanola and Curico Unido?
Record (3 meetings): Union Espanola 3W | Draws 0 | Curico Unido 0W.
What form are Union Espanola and Curico Unido in?
Union Espanola (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-D-L-L. Curico Unido (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Union Espanola's attack at 1.04x the league average against Curico Unido's defence at 1.02x — combine the two and it projects 1.57 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Curico Unido's attack versus Union Espanola's defence, projects 1.11 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Union Espanola Win
48%
2.09
25%
3.98
27%
3.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
Union Espanola xG
Total xG
2.69
1.11
Curico Unido xG
2.09
48%
Home win
3.98
25%
Draw
3.70
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
33%
3.05
21%
4.81
Win to Nil
16%
6.37
6%
17.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 7.6 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 11.9 | 6.7 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.4 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 4.9 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Union Espanola vs Curico Unido?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Union Espanola and Curico Unido expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Union Espanola and 1.11 for Curico Unido, a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Union Espanola vs Curico Unido?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Union Espanola's recent record stands at 23W 8D 18L from 49 games, a 1.57 PPG return, with W-W-D-L-L in the last five. The sample for Union Espanola is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Curico Unido, meanwhile, have gone 16W 18D 15L across 49 games — 1.35 PPG, with L-W-D-W-W in their last five. The sample for Curico Unido is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Union Espanola on 1.57 PPG, Curico Unido on 1.35. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Union Espanola have managed 13W 6D 5L from 24 games — 1.88 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Curico Unido's away record stands at 6W 9D 9L across 24 trips, a 1.12 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Union Espanola come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Union Espanola are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Curico Unido are on 1.41 scored and 1.14 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Union Espanola have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 49 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Union Espanola
Blended
Curico Unido
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Union Espanola and Curico Unido in coming into this match?
Union Espanola have gone 23W 8D 18L in their last 49 games (1.57 PPG), while Curico Unido have gone 16W 18D 15L in their last 49 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Union Espanola at home or Curico Unido away?
Union Espanola's home record (1.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Union Espanola at home: 1.88 PPG; Curico Unido away: 1.12 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 October 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Union Espanola's record when hosting Curico Unido specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Union Espanola
1
Draws
1
Curico Unido
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Union Espanola and Curico Unido?
From 6 meetings on record, Union Espanola have won 4, Curico Unido have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Union Espanola and Curico Unido last play each other?
They last met on 1 October 2023, when Union Espanola 2-2 Curico Unido.
Who has won more matches between Union Espanola and Curico Unido?
Union Espanola have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Union Espanola are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Curico Unido are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Union Espanola at 75%, Curico Unido at 58%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Union Espanola) and 42% (Curico Unido).
On the defensive side: Curico Unido in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Union Espanola home games / Curico Unido away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Union Espanola play Curico Unido?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Union Espanola's games and 58% of Curico Unido's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Union Espanola vs Curico Unido usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Union Espanola's recent games and 42% of Curico Unido's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Union Espanola and Curico Unido tend to score early?
Union Espanola have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Curico Unido in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Curico Unido cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Union Espanola.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Curico Unido beat Union Espanola 1-3 at Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK, Regular Season - 19, in the Primera División. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Union Espanola 1.57 xG and Curico Unido 1.11 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Curico Unido outscored their 1.11 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union Espanola attack 1.04 / defence 0.94 against Curico Unido attack 1.15 / defence 1.02, drawn from 49/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Union Espanola 48% | Draw 25% | Curico Unido 27%, with Union Espanola to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual Curico Unido win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union Espanola 55%, Curico Unido 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Union Espanola's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Curico Unido's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Union Espanola 1.57 PPG, Curico Unido 1.35 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Curico Unido win broke the near-deadlock. Union Espanola (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.29 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Curico Unido (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.21 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.