Palestino 2-3 Colo Colo – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Palestino at 35%, yet in-form Colo Colo provide a compelling counter-argument — this Palestino vs Colo Colo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Primera División encounter, Regular Season - 28 sees Colo Colo travel to Estadio Municipal de La Cisterna to take on Palestino. The game is scheduled for Sunday 20 October 2024, 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Palestino stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Primera División matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D L W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Palestino, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Palestino have posted 6W 2D 2L at Estadio Municipal de La Cisterna — 2.00 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Palestino are significantly better at Estadio Municipal de La Cisterna than their overall form suggests.
Colo Colo — All Games: 9W 1D 0L from 10 Primera División fixtures this season — 2.80 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.30 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Colo Colo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Colo Colo's form when playing away from home: 7W 2D 1L across 10 road games this term (2.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 2.30 is notably below their overall 2.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Colo Colo are 1.30 PPG ahead (2.80 vs 1.50), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
The previous 6 encounters between these sides heavily favour Colo Colo, who boast 5 victories compared to 1 for Palestino.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 May 2024, ended 0–2 with Colo Colo winning.
It is worth noting that Colo Colo have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 5 wins from 6 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Patterns
Palestino in-play and half-time data (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Colo Colo in-play and half-time data (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Palestino 51% versus Colo Colo 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Palestino 47% | Colo Colo 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Palestino 1.03 xG and Colo Colo 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Palestino attack 1.167 / defence 0.844 | Colo Colo attack 1.069 / defence 0.590. League average goals — home 1.495 / away 1.119. Colo Colo's defence strength of 0.590 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 57 Palestino games / 57 Colo Colo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Palestino 35% | Draw 30% | Colo Colo 34%. Fair-value odds: Palestino 2.86 | Draw 3.33 | Colo Colo 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.04. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.04 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Palestino are the pick at 35% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Colo Colo (2.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Palestino offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.04 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 33% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 41%. Form rates corroborate: Palestino 50% | Colo Colo 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Palestino vs Colo Colo | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Estadio Municipal de La Cisterna • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Oct 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Palestino 35% | Draw 30% | Colo Colo 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 41% | xG Palestino 1.03 / Colo Colo 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Palestino attack 1.167 / def 0.844 | Colo Colo attack 1.069 / def 0.590 | league avg home 1.495 / away 1.119 • Poisson stance: Palestino (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
Palestino xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Colo Colo xG
41%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Palestino vs Colo Colo kick off?
Palestino vs Colo Colo kicked off at 19:00 on Sunday 20 October 2024 at Estadio Municipal de La Cisterna.
What was the final score in Palestino vs Colo Colo?
Palestino 2 - 3 Colo Colo.
Where is Palestino vs Colo Colo being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Municipal de La Cisterna.
What competition is Palestino vs Colo Colo part of?
Palestino vs Colo Colo is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Palestino vs Colo Colo?
Our statistical model gives Palestino a 35% chance of winning, Colo Colo a 34% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Palestino the favourite.
Will both teams score in Palestino vs Colo Colo?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Palestino and Colo Colo will score (BTTS).
Will Palestino vs Colo Colo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Palestino and Colo Colo?
Record (6 meetings): Palestino 1W | Draws 0 | Colo Colo 5W.
What form are Palestino and Colo Colo in?
Palestino (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-W-L-W. Colo Colo (all comps): 9W-1D-0L in 10 | 2.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.30 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
What do the betting odds say about Palestino vs Colo Colo?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Palestino's attacking strength (1.17x league average) is weighed against Colo Colo's defensive record (0.59x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.03. The same calculation in reverse, Colo Colo's attack versus Palestino's defence, projects 1.01 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.8%), 1-0 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Palestino Win
35%
2.83
30%
3.28
34%
2.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
13.4%
Home win
0 – 1
13.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
Palestino xG
Total xG
2.04
1.01
Colo Colo xG
2.83
35%
Home win
3.28
30%
Draw
2.92
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.45
59%
BTTS No
1.69
Clean Sheet
36%
2.74
36%
2.80
Win to Nil
13%
7.77
12%
8.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.0 | 13.1 | 6.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.4 | 13.5 | 6.8 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 7.0 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Palestino vs Colo Colo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Palestino and Colo Colo expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Palestino and 1.01 for Colo Colo, a combined total of 2.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Palestino vs Colo Colo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Palestino's recent record stands at 25W 14D 18L from 57 games, a 1.56 PPG return, with D-L-W-L-W in the last five. The sample for Palestino is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Colo Colo, meanwhile, have gone 34W 12D 11L across 57 games — 2.00 PPG, with W-W-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Colo Colo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Colo Colo by 0.44 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Palestino heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Palestino have managed 15W 6D 7L from 28 games — 1.82 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Colo Colo's away record stands at 14W 9D 5L across 28 trips, a 1.82 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Palestino are averaging 1.49 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Colo Colo are on 1.53 scored and 0.82 conceded.
Defensively: Palestino have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games; Colo Colo in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 57 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Palestino
Blended
Colo Colo
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Palestino and Colo Colo in coming into this match?
Palestino have gone 25W 14D 18L in their last 57 games (1.56 PPG), while Colo Colo have gone 34W 12D 11L in their last 57 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Palestino at home or Colo Colo away?
Palestino's home record (1.82 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Palestino at home: 1.82 PPG; Colo Colo away: 1.82 PPG.
Have Palestino or Colo Colo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Palestino have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Colo Colo in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Palestino and Colo Colo runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. They last met on 19 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Mar 2022, when Colo Colo won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Palestino's record when hosting Colo Colo specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Palestino
2
Draws
6
Colo Colo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Palestino and Colo Colo?
From 10 meetings on record, Palestino have won 2, Colo Colo have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Palestino and Colo Colo last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2026, when Colo Colo 0-1 Palestino.
Who has won more matches between Palestino and Colo Colo?
Colo Colo have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Palestino are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Colo Colo see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Palestino 46%, Colo Colo 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Palestino) and 43% (Colo Colo).
On the defensive side: Palestino keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Colo Colo in 50%; Colo Colo in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Palestino home games / Colo Colo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Palestino play Colo Colo?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Palestino's recent matches and 39% of Colo Colo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Palestino vs Colo Colo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Palestino's recent games and 43% of Colo Colo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Palestino and Colo Colo tend to score early?
Palestino have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Colo Colo in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Colo Colo defy the odds to beat Palestino 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Colo Colo beat Palestino 2-3 at Estadio Municipal de La Cisterna, Regular Season - 28, in the Primera División. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Palestino 1.03 xG and Colo Colo 1.01 xG, a combined 2.04. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Palestino beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Colo Colo outscored their 1.01 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Palestino attack 1.17 / defence 0.84 against Colo Colo attack 1.07 / defence 0.59, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Palestino 35% | Draw 30% | Colo Colo 34%, with Palestino to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual Colo Colo win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. Over 3.5 was 15% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Palestino 47%, Colo Colo 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Palestino's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Colo Colo's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Colo Colo arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.56. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Palestino (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.04 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Colo Colo (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.29 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.89 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.