Deportes Limache 0-1 Union La Calera – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Deportes Limache at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Deportes Limache vs Union La Calera fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Union La Calera make the trip to Estadio Gustavo Ocaranza to face Deportes Limache in Primera División, Regular Season - 14. The match kicks off on Saturday 14 June 2025 at 01:00 UTC.
Form
Union La Calera's overall Primera División record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: W L L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
When travelling in Primera División this season, Union La Calera have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Deportes Limache 0.95 xG and Union La Calera 0.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Deportes Limache attack 0.831 / defence 0.946 | Union La Calera attack 0.787 / defence 0.726. League average goals — home 1.569 / away 1.054. Union La Calera's defence strength of 0.726 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 13 Deportes Limache games / 43 Union La Calera games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Deportes Limache 38% | Draw 34% | Union La Calera 29%. Fair-value odds: Deportes Limache 2.63 | Draw 2.94 | Union La Calera 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 25% | BTTS probability 33% | Total xG 1.73. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 75% probability — total xG of 1.73 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 67% — Union La Calera's lower xG of 0.79 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 33%.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Deportes Limache as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Deportes Limache if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 1.73 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 25% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Deportes Limache vs Union La Calera | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Estadio Gustavo Ocaranza • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Jun 2025, 01:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Deportes Limache 38% | Draw 34% | Union La Calera 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 25% | BTTS 33% | xG Deportes Limache 0.95 / Union La Calera 0.79 • Poisson strength factors: Deportes Limache attack 0.831 / def 0.946 | Union La Calera attack 0.787 / def 0.726 | league avg home 1.569 / away 1.054 • Poisson stance: Deportes Limache (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.95
Deportes Limache xG
Expected Goals
0.79
Union La Calera xG
33%
BTTS
52%
Over 1.5
25%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Deportes Limache vs Union La Calera kick off?
Deportes Limache vs Union La Calera kicked off at 01:00 on Saturday 14 June 2025 at Estadio Gustavo Ocaranza.
What was the final score in Deportes Limache vs Union La Calera?
Deportes Limache 0 - 1 Union La Calera.
Where is Deportes Limache vs Union La Calera being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Gustavo Ocaranza.
What competition is Deportes Limache vs Union La Calera part of?
Deportes Limache vs Union La Calera is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Deportes Limache vs Union La Calera?
Our statistical model gives Deportes Limache a 38% chance of winning, Union La Calera a 29% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Deportes Limache the favourite.
Will both teams score in Deportes Limache vs Union La Calera?
Our model estimates a 33% probability that both Deportes Limache and Union La Calera will score (BTTS).
Will Deportes Limache vs Union La Calera have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 25%.
What is the head-to-head record between Deportes Limache and Union La Calera?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Deportes Limache and Union La Calera in?
Union La Calera (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-L-D-W. Union La Calera away split: 1.20 PPG from 10 | GF 0.60 / GA 0.90 | CS 4.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Deportes Limache's attack at 0.83x the league average against Union La Calera's defence at 0.73x — combine the two and it projects 0.95 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Union La Calera's attack (0.79x) against Deportes Limache's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 0.79.
These ratings are built from 13/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 19.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (15.0%), 1-1 (14.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 49% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Deportes Limache Win
38%
2.65
34%
2.98
29%
3.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
17.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
16.8%
Home win
0 – 1
13.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.95
Deportes Limache xG
Total xG
1.73
0.79
Union La Calera xG
2.65
38%
Home win
2.98
34%
Draw
3.48
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
52%
Over 1.5
1.92
48%
Under 1.5
2.08
25%
Over 2.5
4.00
75%
Under 2.5
1.33
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
33%
BTTS Yes
3.01
67%
BTTS No
1.50
Clean Sheet
46%
2.19
39%
2.58
Win to Nil
17%
5.81
11%
8.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.7 | 13.9 | 5.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 16.8 | 13.2 | 5.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 7.9 | 6.2 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Deportes Limache vs Union La Calera?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 19.4%.
How many goals are Deportes Limache and Union La Calera expected to score?
The model projects 0.95 expected goals for Deportes Limache and 0.79 for Union La Calera, a combined total of 1.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Deportes Limache vs Union La Calera?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Deportes Limache
Pre-Season
Union La Calera
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 3 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2025 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. They last met on 4 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Deportes Limache have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Deportes Limache won 4-0 on 4 Apr 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Deportes Limache have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Union La Calera — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 3 Meetings
2
Deportes Limache
0
Draws
1
Union La Calera
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Deportes Limache and Union La Calera?
From 3 meetings on record, Deportes Limache have won 2, Union La Calera have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Deportes Limache and Union La Calera last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2026, when Deportes Limache 4-0 Union La Calera.
Who has won more matches between Deportes Limache and Union La Calera?
Deportes Limache have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Deportes Limache home games / Union La Calera away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shock result as Union La Calera defy the odds to beat Deportes Limache 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Union La Calera beat Deportes Limache 0-1 at Estadio Gustavo Ocaranza, Regular Season - 14, in the Primera División. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Deportes Limache 0.95 xG and Union La Calera 0.79 xG, a combined 1.73. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Deportes Limache fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Deportes Limache attack 0.83 / defence 0.95 against Union La Calera attack 0.79 / defence 0.73, drawn from 13/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Deportes Limache 38% | Draw 34% | Union La Calera 29%, with Deportes Limache to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Union La Calera win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 25%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 52% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 33% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.