Deportes Limache 1-0 Union Espanola – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Deportes Limache at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Deportes Limache vs Union Espanola fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Deportes Limache host Union Espanola at Estadio Gustavo Ocaranza in Primera División, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 21 November 2025 at 23:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Deportes Limache stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Primera División matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L W D L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Deportes Limache, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Estadio Gustavo Ocaranza, Deportes Limache have gone 5W 1D 4L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estadio Gustavo Ocaranza. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Deportes Limache are significantly better at Estadio Gustavo Ocaranza than their overall form suggests.
Across all Primera División games this season, Union Espanola have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Union Espanola, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Union Espanola away from home this season: 1W 1D 8L from 10 away games — 0.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Deportes Limache 0.80 PPG, Union Espanola 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Deportes Limache have won 0, Union Espanola 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 3 Jun 2025, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Deportes Limache in-play tendencies (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Union Espanola in-play tendencies (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 48% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Deportes Limache 59% versus Union Espanola 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Deportes Limache 56% | Union Espanola 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Deportes Limache 1.33 xG and Union Espanola 0.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Deportes Limache attack 0.919 / defence 0.914 | Union Espanola attack 0.718 / defence 0.979. League average goals — home 1.484 / away 1.176. Data: 27 Deportes Limache games / 57 Union Espanola games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Deportes Limache 50% | Draw 28% | Union Espanola 22%. Fair-value odds: Deportes Limache 2.00 | Draw 3.57 | Union Espanola 4.55. Deportes Limache hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.10. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.10 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Deportes Limache are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Deportes Limache offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.10 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 35% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 40%. Form rates corroborate: Deportes Limache 10% | Union Espanola 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Deportes Limache vs Union Espanola | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Estadio Gustavo Ocaranza • Kick-off: Friday 21 Nov 2025, 23:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Deportes Limache 50% | Draw 28% | Union Espanola 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 40% | xG Deportes Limache 1.33 / Union Espanola 0.77 • Poisson strength factors: Deportes Limache attack 0.919 / def 0.914 | Union Espanola attack 0.718 / def 0.979 | league avg home 1.484 / away 1.176 • Poisson stance: Deportes Limache (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Deportes Limache xG
Expected Goals
0.77
Union Espanola xG
40%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Deportes Limache vs Union Espanola kick off?
Deportes Limache vs Union Espanola kicked off at 23:00 on Friday 21 November 2025 at Estadio Gustavo Ocaranza.
What was the final score in Deportes Limache vs Union Espanola?
Deportes Limache 1 - 0 Union Espanola.
Where is Deportes Limache vs Union Espanola being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Gustavo Ocaranza.
What competition is Deportes Limache vs Union Espanola part of?
Deportes Limache vs Union Espanola is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Deportes Limache vs Union Espanola?
Our statistical model gives Deportes Limache a 50% chance of winning, Union Espanola a 22% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Deportes Limache the favourite.
Will both teams score in Deportes Limache vs Union Espanola?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Deportes Limache and Union Espanola will score (BTTS).
Will Deportes Limache vs Union Espanola have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Deportes Limache and Union Espanola?
Record (1 meetings): Deportes Limache 0W | Draws 1 | Union Espanola 0W.
What form are Deportes Limache and Union Espanola in?
Deportes Limache (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-D-L-L. Union Espanola (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Deportes Limache's attack rating (0.92) and Union Espanola's defence rating (0.98), the model arrives at 1.33 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Union Espanola's attack versus Deportes Limache's defence, projects 0.77 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 27/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.2%), 0-0 (13.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Deportes Limache Win
50%
2.00
28%
3.53
22%
4.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
0 – 0
12.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Deportes Limache xG
Total xG
2.10
0.77
Union Espanola xG
2.00
50%
Home win
3.53
28%
Draw
4.62
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.53
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
46%
2.16
26%
3.80
Win to Nil
23%
4.32
6%
17.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.2 | 9.4 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.3 | 12.5 | 4.8 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.8 | 8.4 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.8 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Deportes Limache vs Union Espanola?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Deportes Limache and Union Espanola expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Deportes Limache and 0.77 for Union Espanola, a combined total of 2.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Deportes Limache vs Union Espanola?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Deportes Limache come into this having played 27 games, going 5W 7D 15L for 0.81 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-L-L. The sample for Deportes Limache is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Union Espanola sit at 0.78 PPG from 27 outings (6W 3D 18L), a run that reads L-W-L-D-L across their last five. The sample for Union Espanola is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Deportes Limache on 0.81 PPG, Union Espanola on 0.78. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Deportes Limache's home form reads 5W 2D 6L across 13 games on their own ground, a 1.31 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 0.81 PPG overall — Deportes Limache are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Union Espanola have taken 0.54 points per game from 13 outings (2W 1D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Deportes Limache come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Deportes Limache are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.59 conceded per game recently; Union Espanola are on 1.07 scored and 1.81 conceded.
Last 27 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Deportes Limache
Blended
Union Espanola
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Deportes Limache and Union Espanola in coming into this match?
Deportes Limache have gone 5W 7D 15L in their last 27 games (0.81 PPG), while Union Espanola have gone 6W 3D 18L in their last 27 (0.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Deportes Limache at home or Union Espanola away?
Deportes Limache's home record (1.31 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Deportes Limache at home: 1.31 PPG; Union Espanola away: 0.54 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. They last met on 21 November 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Deportes Limache
1
Draws
0
Union Espanola
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Deportes Limache and Union Espanola?
From 2 meetings on record, Deportes Limache have won 1, Union Espanola have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Deportes Limache and Union Espanola last play each other?
They last met on 21 November 2025, when Deportes Limache 1-0 Union Espanola.
Who has won more matches between Deportes Limache and Union Espanola?
Deportes Limache have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Deportes Limache are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Union Espanola see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Deportes Limache 31% BTTS, Union Espanola 31%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 31% (Deportes Limache) and 46% (Union Espanola).
On the defensive side: Deportes Limache keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Deportes Limache have failed to score in 31% of games; Union Espanola in 62%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Deportes Limache home games / Union Espanola away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Deportes Limache play Union Espanola?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 31% of Deportes Limache's recent matches and 31% of Union Espanola's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Deportes Limache vs Union Espanola usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 31% of Deportes Limache's recent games and 46% of Union Espanola's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Deportes Limache and Union Espanola tend to score early?
Deportes Limache have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Union Espanola in 54% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Deportes Limache edge out Union Espanola 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Deportes Limache beat Union Espanola 1-0 at Estadio Gustavo Ocaranza, Regular Season - 28, in the Primera División. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Deportes Limache 1.33 xG and Union Espanola 0.77 xG, a combined 2.10. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Deportes Limache attack 0.92 / defence 0.91 against Union Espanola attack 0.72 / defence 0.98, drawn from 27/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Deportes Limache 50% | Draw 28% | Union Espanola 22%, with Deportes Limache to win its most likely call at 50%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 62% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Deportes Limache 56%, Union Espanola 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Deportes Limache's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Union Espanola's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 48% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Deportes Limache 0.81 PPG, Union Espanola 0.78 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Deportes Limache win broke the near-deadlock. Deportes Limache (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.92 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.