Deportes Limache 0-1 Palestino – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Palestino at 41% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Deportes Limache face Palestino.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estadio Gustavo Ocaranza plays host to Deportes Limache versus Palestino in Primera División (matchday 11). Kick-off: Sunday 18 May 2025 at 21:00 UK time.
Form
Palestino's record over their last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L (1.70 PPG). Last five: L W L W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.10. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
On the road, Palestino have gone 2W 3D 5L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Deportes Limache 1.10 xG and Palestino 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Deportes Limache attack 0.881 / defence 1.142 | Palestino attack 1.279 / defence 0.816. League average goals — home 1.532 / away 0.891. Palestino have an above-average attack rating of 1.279, which lifts their away xG to 1.30. Data: built from Deportes Limache's last 10 games and Palestino's last 40.
Result probabilities: Deportes Limache 31% | Draw 27% | Palestino 41%. Fair-value odds: Deportes Limache 3.18 | Draw 3.64 | Palestino 2.43. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Palestino at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Palestino if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.40 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 57% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Deportes Limache vs Palestino | Competition: Primera División, matchday 11 | Venue: Estadio Gustavo Ocaranza • Kick-off: Sunday 18 May 2025 at 21:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Deportes Limache 31% | Draw 27% | Palestino 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% (Under 57%) | BTTS Yes 49% (No 51%) | xG Deportes Limache 1.10 / Palestino 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Deportes Limache attack 0.881 / def 1.142 | Palestino attack 1.279 / def 0.816 | league avg home 1.532 / away 0.891 • Poisson stance: Palestino (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Deportes Limache xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Palestino xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Deportes Limache vs Palestino FAQs
What time does Deportes Limache vs Palestino kick off?
Deportes Limache vs Palestino kicked off at 21:00 UK time on Sunday 18 May 2025 at Estadio Gustavo Ocaranza.
What was the final score in Deportes Limache vs Palestino?
Deportes Limache 0 - 1 Palestino.
Where is Deportes Limache vs Palestino being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Gustavo Ocaranza.
What competition is Deportes Limache vs Palestino part of?
Deportes Limache vs Palestino is a Primera División fixture (matchday 11) (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Deportes Limache vs Palestino?
Our statistical model gives Deportes Limache a 31% chance of winning, Palestino a 41% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Palestino the favourite.
Will both teams score in Deportes Limache vs Palestino?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Deportes Limache and Palestino will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (51%).
Will Deportes Limache vs Palestino have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (57%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Deportes Limache's attack at 0.88x the league average against Palestino's defence at 0.82x — combine the two and it projects 1.10 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Palestino's attack (1.28x) against Deportes Limache's defence (1.14x) — and the away total comes out at 1.30.
These ratings are built from Deportes Limache's last 10 games and Palestino's last 40 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.7%), 0-1 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Palestino Win
31%
3.18
27%
3.64
41%
2.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.8%
Away win
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Deportes Limache xG
Total xG
2.40
1.30
Palestino xG
3.18
31%
Home win
3.64
27%
Draw
2.43
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.06
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
27%
3.68
33%
3.01
Win to Nil
9%
11.71
14%
7.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 11.8 | 7.7 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 13.0 | 8.4 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 7.1 | 4.6 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.6 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Deportes Limache vs Palestino Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Deportes Limache vs Palestino?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Deportes Limache and Palestino expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Deportes Limache and 1.30 for Palestino, a combined total of 2.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Deportes Limache vs Palestino?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Deportes Limache
Pre-Season
Palestino
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
Deportes Limache (Home) vs Palestino (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Deportes Limache
Pre-Season
Palestino
Pre-Season
No results found for this venue split.
No results found for this venue split.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 4 H2H matches between Deportes Limache and Palestino, the earliest from May 2025. All of them came in Primera División. The most recent was as recently as 11 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Deportes Limache have gone 0W 1D 1L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Palestino — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Deportes Limache
1
Draws
3
Palestino
Recent Meetings
❓ Deportes Limache vs Palestino H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Deportes Limache and Palestino?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Deportes Limache have won 0, Palestino have won 3, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Deportes Limache and Palestino last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 11 October 2026: Deportes Limache 2-2 Palestino.
Who has won more matches between Deportes Limache and Palestino?
Palestino have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Deportes Limache home games / Palestino away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Palestino edge out Deportes Limache 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Palestino beat Deportes Limache 0-1 at Estadio Gustavo Ocaranza, Regular Season - 11, in the Primera División. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Deportes Limache 1.10 xG and Palestino 1.30 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Deportes Limache fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Deportes Limache attack 0.88 / defence 1.14 against Palestino attack 1.28 / defence 0.82, drawn from 10/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Deportes Limache 31% | Draw 27% | Palestino 41%, with Palestino to win its most likely call at 41%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.