Deportes Iquique 0-1 Union La Calera – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Deportes Iquique at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Deportes Iquique vs Union La Calera fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Deportes Iquique host Union La Calera at Estadio Tierra de Campeones in Primera División, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 26 May 2025 at 01:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Deportes Iquique — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Primera División outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: W L W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Deportes Iquique's home record at Estadio Tierra de Campeones: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Primera División appearances (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Deportes Iquique are significantly better at Estadio Tierra de Campeones than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Union La Calera stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Primera División matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
On the road, Union La Calera have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Deportes Iquique at 1.60 PPG versus Union La Calera's 1.50. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Deportes Iquique have won 1, Union La Calera 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 4 Aug 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Deportes Iquique trading profile (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Union La Calera trading profile (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Deportes Iquique 70% versus Union La Calera 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Deportes Iquique 77% | Union La Calera 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Deportes Iquique 1.26 xG and Union La Calera 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Deportes Iquique attack 0.993 / defence 1.336 | Union La Calera attack 0.798 / defence 0.825. League average goals — home 1.539 / away 0.970. Data: 40 Deportes Iquique games / 41 Union La Calera games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Deportes Iquique 41% | Draw 28% | Union La Calera 30%. Fair-value odds: Deportes Iquique 2.44 | Draw 3.57 | Union La Calera 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Deportes Iquique are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Deportes Iquique offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.29 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 40% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates are neutral: Deportes Iquique 70% | Union La Calera 30%.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Deportes Iquique vs Union La Calera | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Estadio Tierra de Campeones • Kick-off: Monday 26 May 2025, 01:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Deportes Iquique 41% | Draw 28% | Union La Calera 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 46% | xG Deportes Iquique 1.26 / Union La Calera 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Deportes Iquique attack 0.993 / def 1.336 | Union La Calera attack 0.798 / def 0.825 | league avg home 1.539 / away 0.970 • Poisson stance: Deportes Iquique (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Deportes Iquique xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Union La Calera xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Deportes Iquique vs Union La Calera kick off?
Deportes Iquique vs Union La Calera kicked off at 01:00 on Monday 26 May 2025 at Estadio Tierra de Campeones.
What was the final score in Deportes Iquique vs Union La Calera?
Deportes Iquique 0 - 1 Union La Calera.
Where is Deportes Iquique vs Union La Calera being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Tierra de Campeones.
What competition is Deportes Iquique vs Union La Calera part of?
Deportes Iquique vs Union La Calera is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Deportes Iquique vs Union La Calera?
Our statistical model gives Deportes Iquique a 41% chance of winning, Union La Calera a 30% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Deportes Iquique the favourite.
Will both teams score in Deportes Iquique vs Union La Calera?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Deportes Iquique and Union La Calera will score (BTTS).
Will Deportes Iquique vs Union La Calera have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Deportes Iquique and Union La Calera?
Record (2 meetings): Deportes Iquique 1W | Draws 1 | Union La Calera 0W.
What form are Deportes Iquique and Union La Calera in?
Deportes Iquique (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-W-L-W. Union La Calera (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Deportes Iquique's attack rating (0.99) and Union La Calera's defence rating (0.82), the model arrives at 1.26 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Union La Calera's attack versus Deportes Iquique's defence, projects 1.03 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.8%), 1-0 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Deportes Iquique Win
41%
2.41
28%
3.55
30%
3.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.7%
Home win
0 – 1
10.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Deportes Iquique xG
Total xG
2.29
1.03
Union La Calera xG
2.41
41%
Home win
3.55
28%
Draw
3.30
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
36%
2.81
28%
3.53
Win to Nil
15%
6.78
9%
11.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 10.4 | 5.4 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.7 | 13.1 | 6.8 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 8.3 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 3.5 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Deportes Iquique vs Union La Calera?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Deportes Iquique and Union La Calera expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Deportes Iquique and 1.03 for Union La Calera, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Deportes Iquique vs Union La Calera?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 30 outings, Deportes Iquique have picked up 1.60 PPG on a 14W 6D 10L record — W-L-W-L-W across the most recent five.
Union La Calera's form line: 9W 7D 14L from 30 games, 1.13 PPG, last five W-L-L-D-W.
Put side by side, Deportes Iquique are the form team by 0.47 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Union La Calera.
Venue Form
On home soil, Deportes Iquique have posted 2.13 PPG from 15 outings (10W 2D 3L). That's noticeably better than their 1.60 PPG overall — Deportes Iquique are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Union La Calera have gone 4W 5D 6L from 15 away games — 1.13 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Deportes Iquique come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Deportes Iquique are averaging 1.77 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Union La Calera are on 0.97 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Deportes Iquique have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games.
Last 30 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Deportes Iquique
Current Season
Union La Calera
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Deportes Iquique and Union La Calera in coming into this match?
Deportes Iquique have gone 14W 6D 10L in their last 30 games (1.60 PPG), while Union La Calera have gone 9W 7D 14L in their last 30 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Deportes Iquique at home or Union La Calera away?
Deportes Iquique's home record (2.13 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Deportes Iquique at home: 2.13 PPG; Union La Calera away: 1.13 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to March 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. They last met on 7 November 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Deportes Iquique's record when hosting Union La Calera specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Deportes Iquique
1
Draws
1
Union La Calera
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Deportes Iquique and Union La Calera?
From 4 meetings on record, Deportes Iquique have won 2, Union La Calera have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Deportes Iquique and Union La Calera last play each other?
They last met on 7 November 2025, when Union La Calera 1-2 Deportes Iquique.
Who has won more matches between Deportes Iquique and Union La Calera?
Deportes Iquique have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Deportes Iquique are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
Union La Calera see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Deportes Iquique 73%, Union La Calera 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 73% (Deportes Iquique) and 20% (Union La Calera).
On the defensive side: Union La Calera in 40%; Union La Calera in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Deportes Iquique home games / Union La Calera away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Deportes Iquique play Union La Calera?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 73% of Deportes Iquique's recent matches and 33% of Union La Calera's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Deportes Iquique vs Union La Calera usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 73% of Deportes Iquique's recent games and 20% of Union La Calera's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Deportes Iquique and Union La Calera tend to score early?
Deportes Iquique have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Union La Calera in 53% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Union La Calera defy the odds to beat Deportes Iquique 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Union La Calera beat Deportes Iquique 0-1 at Estadio Tierra de Campeones, Regular Season - 12, in the Primera División. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Deportes Iquique 1.26 xG and Union La Calera 1.03 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Deportes Iquique fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Deportes Iquique attack 0.99 / defence 1.34 against Union La Calera attack 0.80 / defence 0.82, drawn from 40/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Deportes Iquique 41% | Draw 28% | Union La Calera 30%, with Deportes Iquique to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Union La Calera win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Deportes Iquique 77%, Union La Calera 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Deportes Iquique's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.
Union La Calera's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Deportes Iquique arrived the stronger side — 1.60 PPG against 1.13. Form was overturned, with Union La Calera winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Deportes Iquique (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Union La Calera (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.07 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.