Deportes Iquique 1-2 Everton de Vina – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Deportes Iquique at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Deportes Iquique vs Everton de Vina fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estadio Tierra de Campeones plays host to Deportes Iquique versus Everton de Vina in Primera División, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off: Tuesday 17 June 2025 at 01:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Deportes Iquique have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Primera División outings this season: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: W L W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Deportes Iquique have posted 7W 1D 2L at Estadio Tierra de Campeones — 2.20 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Deportes Iquique are significantly better at Estadio Tierra de Campeones than their overall form suggests.
Everton de Vina (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Primera División outings this term — 1.70 points per game. Last five: L L W W D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Primera División this season, Everton de Vina have posted 5W 3D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.80 PPG. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.60 for Deportes Iquique, 1.70 for Everton de Vina — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Deportes Iquique register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Everton de Vina in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Deportes Iquique, 0 for Everton de Vina and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Jul 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Deportes Iquique — key trading statistics (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Everton de Vina — key trading statistics (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 87% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Deportes Iquique 70% and Everton de Vina 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Deportes Iquique 77% | Everton de Vina 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Deportes Iquique 1.91 xG and Everton de Vina 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Deportes Iquique attack 0.972 / defence 1.314 | Everton de Vina attack 1.008 / defence 1.276. League average goals — home 1.539 / away 1.042. Everton de Vina bring a strong defensive rating of 1.276 — this is suppressing Deportes Iquique's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 43 Deportes Iquique games / 43 Everton de Vina games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Deportes Iquique 50% | Draw 22% | Everton de Vina 28%. Fair-value odds: Deportes Iquique 2.00 | Draw 4.55 | Everton de Vina 3.57. Deportes Iquique hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.29. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.29 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.91 / 1.38) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Deportes Iquique are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Deportes Iquique if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.29 combined xG gives a 64% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 64%. Form rates corroborate: Deportes Iquique 70% | Everton de Vina 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Deportes Iquique vs Everton de Vina | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Estadio Tierra de Campeones • Kick-off: Tuesday 17 Jun 2025, 01:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Deportes Iquique 50% | Draw 22% | Everton de Vina 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 64% | xG Deportes Iquique 1.91 / Everton de Vina 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Deportes Iquique attack 0.972 / def 1.314 | Everton de Vina attack 1.008 / def 1.276 | league avg home 1.539 / away 1.042 • Poisson stance: Deportes Iquique (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.91
Deportes Iquique xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Everton de Vina xG
64%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Deportes Iquique vs Everton de Vina kick off?
Deportes Iquique vs Everton de Vina kicked off at 01:00 on Tuesday 17 June 2025 at Estadio Tierra de Campeones.
What was the final score in Deportes Iquique vs Everton de Vina?
Deportes Iquique 1 - 2 Everton de Vina.
Where is Deportes Iquique vs Everton de Vina being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Tierra de Campeones.
What competition is Deportes Iquique vs Everton de Vina part of?
Deportes Iquique vs Everton de Vina is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Deportes Iquique vs Everton de Vina?
Our statistical model gives Deportes Iquique a 50% chance of winning, Everton de Vina a 28% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Deportes Iquique the favourite.
Will both teams score in Deportes Iquique vs Everton de Vina?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Deportes Iquique and Everton de Vina will score (BTTS).
Will Deportes Iquique vs Everton de Vina have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Deportes Iquique and Everton de Vina?
Record (2 meetings): Deportes Iquique 0W | Draws 2 | Everton de Vina 0W.
What form are Deportes Iquique and Everton de Vina in?
Deportes Iquique (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-W-L-W. Everton de Vina (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Deportes Iquique's attacking strength (0.97x league average) is weighed against Everton de Vina's defensive record (1.28x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.91. Flip it around — Everton de Vina's attack (1.01x) against Deportes Iquique's defence (1.31x) — and the away total comes out at 1.38.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (6.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Deportes Iquique Win
50%
2.00
22%
4.49
28%
3.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
1 – 0
7.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.91
Deportes Iquique xG
Total xG
3.29
1.38
Everton de Vina xG
2.00
50%
Home win
4.49
22%
Draw
3.59
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.57
36%
BTTS No
2.76
Clean Sheet
25%
3.97
15%
6.74
Win to Nil
13%
7.97
4%
24.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 5.2 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 9.8 | 6.8 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 9.4 | 6.5 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 6.0 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.8 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Deportes Iquique vs Everton de Vina?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are Deportes Iquique and Everton de Vina expected to score?
The model projects 1.91 expected goals for Deportes Iquique and 1.38 for Everton de Vina, a combined total of 3.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Deportes Iquique vs Everton de Vina?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Deportes Iquique's recent record stands at 14W 6D 10L from 30 games, a 1.60 PPG return, with W-L-W-L-W in the last five.
Everton de Vina, meanwhile, have gone 12W 9D 9L across 30 games — 1.50 PPG, with L-L-W-W-D in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.60 PPG for Deportes Iquique against 1.50 for Everton de Vina. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Deportes Iquique have managed 10W 2D 3L from 15 games — 2.13 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.60 PPG overall — Deportes Iquique are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Everton de Vina's away record stands at 6W 4D 5L across 15 trips, a 1.47 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Deportes Iquique come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Deportes Iquique are averaging 1.77 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Everton de Vina are on 1.57 scored and 1.37 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Deportes Iquique have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games; Everton de Vina in 67%.
Last 30 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Deportes Iquique
Current Season
Everton de Vina
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Deportes Iquique and Everton de Vina in coming into this match?
Deportes Iquique have gone 14W 6D 10L in their last 30 games (1.60 PPG), while Everton de Vina have gone 12W 9D 9L in their last 30 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Deportes Iquique at home or Everton de Vina away?
Deportes Iquique's home record (2.13 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Deportes Iquique at home: 2.13 PPG; Everton de Vina away: 1.47 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to February 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. They last met on 30 November 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Deportes Iquique have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Everton de Vina — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Deportes Iquique
2
Draws
1
Everton de Vina
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Deportes Iquique and Everton de Vina?
From 4 meetings on record, Deportes Iquique have won 1, Everton de Vina have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Deportes Iquique and Everton de Vina last play each other?
They last met on 30 November 2025, when Everton de Vina 0-1 Deportes Iquique.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Deportes Iquique are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
Everton de Vina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 73% for Deportes Iquique, 87% for Everton de Vina — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 73% for Deportes Iquique and 67% for Everton de Vina. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Deportes Iquique home games / Everton de Vina away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Deportes Iquique play Everton de Vina?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 73% of Deportes Iquique's games and 87% of Everton de Vina's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Deportes Iquique vs Everton de Vina usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of Deportes Iquique's matches and 67% of Everton de Vina's.
Do Deportes Iquique and Everton de Vina tend to score early?
Deportes Iquique have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Everton de Vina in 87% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Everton de Vina defy the odds to beat Deportes Iquique 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Everton de Vina beat Deportes Iquique 1-2 at Estadio Tierra de Campeones, Regular Season - 14, in the Primera División. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Deportes Iquique 1.91 xG and Everton de Vina 1.38 xG, a combined 3.29. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Deportes Iquique fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Deportes Iquique attack 0.97 / defence 1.31 against Everton de Vina attack 1.01 / defence 1.28, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Deportes Iquique 50% | Draw 22% | Everton de Vina 28%, with Deportes Iquique to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual Everton de Vina win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Deportes Iquique 77%, Everton de Vina 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Deportes Iquique's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
Everton de Vina's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Deportes Iquique 1.60 PPG, Everton de Vina 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Everton de Vina win broke the near-deadlock. Deportes Iquique (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.