Deportes Iquique 2-1 Deportes Limache – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Deportes Iquique at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Deportes Iquique vs Deportes Limache fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Deportes Iquique host Deportes Limache at Estadio Tierra de Campeones in Primera División, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 31 August 2025 at 01:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Primera División games this season, Deportes Iquique have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.60 PPG return. Last five: W D L D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Deportes Iquique, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Deportes Iquique's home record at Estadio Tierra de Campeones: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Primera División appearances (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
Deportes Limache — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Primera División fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Deportes Limache, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Deportes Limache's away record: 0W 4D 6L from 10 road trips in Primera División this season (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.60 PPG (Deportes Iquique) versus 1.00 (Deportes Limache). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Deportes Iquique, 1 for Deportes Limache and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Apr 2025, ended 0–2 with Deportes Limache winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Deportes Iquique in-play and half-time data (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Deportes Limache in-play and half-time data (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Deportes Iquique 57% versus Deportes Limache 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Deportes Iquique 67% | Deportes Limache 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Deportes Iquique 1.67 xG and Deportes Limache 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Deportes Iquique attack 0.870 / defence 1.215 | Deportes Limache attack 0.765 / defence 1.308. League average goals — home 1.468 / away 1.115. Deportes Limache bring a strong defensive rating of 1.308 — this is suppressing Deportes Iquique's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 51 Deportes Iquique games / 21 Deportes Limache games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Deportes Iquique 52% | Draw 24% | Deportes Limache 24%. Fair-value odds: Deportes Iquique 1.92 | Draw 4.17 | Deportes Limache 4.17. Deportes Iquique hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Deportes Iquique as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Deportes Iquique offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.71 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Deportes Iquique 40% | Deportes Limache 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Deportes Iquique vs Deportes Limache | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Estadio Tierra de Campeones • Kick-off: Sunday 31 Aug 2025, 01:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Deportes Iquique 52% | Draw 24% | Deportes Limache 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 52% | xG Deportes Iquique 1.67 / Deportes Limache 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Deportes Iquique attack 0.870 / def 1.215 | Deportes Limache attack 0.765 / def 1.308 | league avg home 1.468 / away 1.115 • Poisson stance: Deportes Iquique (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.67
Deportes Iquique xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Deportes Limache xG
52%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Deportes Iquique vs Deportes Limache kick off?
Deportes Iquique vs Deportes Limache kicked off at 01:00 on Sunday 31 August 2025 at Estadio Tierra de Campeones.
What was the final score in Deportes Iquique vs Deportes Limache?
Deportes Iquique 2 - 1 Deportes Limache.
Where is Deportes Iquique vs Deportes Limache being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Tierra de Campeones.
What competition is Deportes Iquique vs Deportes Limache part of?
Deportes Iquique vs Deportes Limache is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Deportes Iquique vs Deportes Limache?
Our statistical model gives Deportes Iquique a 52% chance of winning, Deportes Limache a 24% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Deportes Iquique the favourite.
Will both teams score in Deportes Iquique vs Deportes Limache?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Deportes Iquique and Deportes Limache will score (BTTS).
Will Deportes Iquique vs Deportes Limache have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Deportes Iquique and Deportes Limache?
Record (1 meetings): Deportes Iquique 0W | Draws 0 | Deportes Limache 1W.
What form are Deportes Iquique and Deportes Limache in?
Deportes Iquique (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-D-L-D-L. Deportes Limache (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Deportes Iquique's attacking strength (0.87x league average) is weighed against Deportes Limache's defensive record (1.31x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.67. The same calculation in reverse, Deportes Limache's attack versus Deportes Iquique's defence, projects 1.04 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 51/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 1-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Deportes Iquique Win
52%
1.92
24%
4.12
24%
4.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.67
Deportes Iquique xG
Total xG
2.71
1.04
Deportes Limache xG
1.92
52%
Home win
4.12
24%
Draw
4.26
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
35%
2.82
19%
5.32
Win to Nil
19%
5.40
4%
22.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 6.9 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 11.6 | 6.0 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.7 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 5.4 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Deportes Iquique vs Deportes Limache?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Deportes Iquique and Deportes Limache expected to score?
The model projects 1.67 expected goals for Deportes Iquique and 1.04 for Deportes Limache, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Deportes Iquique vs Deportes Limache?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Deportes Iquique come into this having played 21 games, going 2W 5D 14L for 0.52 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-D-L. The sample for Deportes Iquique is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Deportes Limache sit at 0.86 PPG from 21 outings (4W 6D 11L), a run that reads L-L-W-L-D across their last five. The sample for Deportes Limache is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Deportes Iquique on 0.52 PPG, Deportes Limache on 0.86. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Deportes Iquique's home form reads 2W 2D 6L across 10 games on their own ground, a 0.80 PPG return.
Away from home, Deportes Limache have taken 0.40 points per game from 10 outings (0W 4D 6L). That's a step down from their 0.86 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Deportes Limache's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Deportes Iquique come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Deportes Iquique are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game recently; Deportes Limache are on 1.14 scored and 1.52 conceded.
Last 21 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Deportes Iquique
Blended
Deportes Limache
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Deportes Iquique and Deportes Limache in coming into this match?
Deportes Iquique have gone 2W 5D 14L in their last 21 games (0.52 PPG), while Deportes Limache have gone 4W 6D 11L in their last 21 (0.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Deportes Iquique at home or Deportes Limache away?
Deportes Iquique's home record (0.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Deportes Iquique at home: 0.80 PPG; Deportes Limache away: 0.40 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. They last met on 31 August 2025, roughly 12 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Deportes Iquique
0
Draws
1
Deportes Limache
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Deportes Iquique and Deportes Limache?
From 2 meetings on record, Deportes Iquique have won 1, Deportes Limache have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Deportes Iquique and Deportes Limache last play each other?
They last met on 31 August 2025, when Deportes Iquique 2-1 Deportes Limache.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Deportes Iquique are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Deportes Limache are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Deportes Iquique 40%, Deportes Limache 80% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for Deportes Iquique and 70% for Deportes Limache. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Deportes Iquique have failed to score in 40% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Deportes Iquique home games / Deportes Limache away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Deportes Iquique play Deportes Limache?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 40% of Deportes Iquique's games and 80% of Deportes Limache's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Deportes Iquique vs Deportes Limache usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Deportes Iquique's matches and 70% of Deportes Limache's.
Do Deportes Iquique and Deportes Limache tend to score early?
Deportes Iquique have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Deportes Limache in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Deportes Iquique edge out Deportes Limache 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Deportes Iquique beat Deportes Limache 2-1 at Estadio Tierra de Campeones, Regular Season - 22, in the Primera División. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Deportes Iquique 1.67 xG and Deportes Limache 1.04 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Deportes Iquique attack 0.87 / defence 1.22 against Deportes Limache attack 0.77 / defence 1.31, drawn from 51/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Deportes Iquique 52% | Draw 24% | Deportes Limache 24%, with Deportes Iquique to win its most likely call at 52%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Deportes Iquique 67%, Deportes Limache 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Deportes Iquique's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Deportes Limache's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Deportes Iquique 0.52 PPG, Deportes Limache 0.86 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Deportes Iquique win broke the near-deadlock. Deportes Iquique (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.90 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.