Cobresal 3-2 Coquimbo Unido – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cobresal at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cobresal vs Coquimbo Unido fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Cobresal host Coquimbo Unido at Estadio El Teniente in Primera División, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 3 September 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cobresal stand at 5W 5D 0L from 10 Primera División matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W D W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Cobresal, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Cobresal have posted 7W 3D 0L at Estadio El Teniente — 2.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estadio El Teniente.
Across all Primera División games this season, Coquimbo Unido have recorded 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L L D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Coquimbo Unido, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Coquimbo Unido have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Cobresal at 2.00 PPG versus Coquimbo Unido's 1.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Cobresal, 2 for Coquimbo Unido and 0 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.3 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 13 Mar 2023, ended 1–2 with Coquimbo Unido winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Cobresal trading profile (52 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Coquimbo Unido trading profile (52 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cobresal 58% versus Coquimbo Unido 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cobresal 52% | Coquimbo Unido 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cobresal 1.61 xG and Coquimbo Unido 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cobresal attack 1.186 / defence 0.849 | Coquimbo Unido attack 1.029 / defence 1.003. League average goals — home 1.357 / away 1.207. Data: 52 Cobresal games / 52 Coquimbo Unido games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cobresal 50% | Draw 26% | Coquimbo Unido 24%. Fair-value odds: Cobresal 2.00 | Draw 3.85 | Coquimbo Unido 4.17. Cobresal hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Cobresal are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cobresal offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.67 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 50% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Cobresal 50% | Coquimbo Unido 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cobresal vs Coquimbo Unido | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Estadio El Teniente • Kick-off: Sunday 3 Sep 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cobresal 50% | Draw 26% | Coquimbo Unido 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 53% | xG Cobresal 1.61 / Coquimbo Unido 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Cobresal attack 1.186 / def 0.849 | Coquimbo Unido attack 1.029 / def 1.003 | league avg home 1.357 / away 1.207 • Poisson stance: Cobresal (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.61
Cobresal xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Coquimbo Unido xG
53%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cobresal vs Coquimbo Unido kick off?
Cobresal vs Coquimbo Unido kicked off at 19:00 on Sunday 3 September 2023 at Estadio El Teniente.
What was the final score in Cobresal vs Coquimbo Unido?
Cobresal 3 - 2 Coquimbo Unido.
Where is Cobresal vs Coquimbo Unido being played?
The match is being played at Estadio El Teniente.
What competition is Cobresal vs Coquimbo Unido part of?
Cobresal vs Coquimbo Unido is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Cobresal vs Coquimbo Unido?
Our statistical model gives Cobresal a 50% chance of winning, Coquimbo Unido a 24% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Cobresal the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cobresal vs Coquimbo Unido?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Cobresal and Coquimbo Unido will score (BTTS).
Will Cobresal vs Coquimbo Unido have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cobresal and Coquimbo Unido?
Record (3 meetings): Cobresal 1W | Draws 0 | Coquimbo Unido 2W.
What form are Cobresal and Coquimbo Unido in?
Cobresal (all comps): 5W-5D-0L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-D-W-W-D. Coquimbo Unido (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Cobresal's attack rating (1.19) and Coquimbo Unido's defence rating (1.00), the model arrives at 1.61 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Coquimbo Unido's attack versus Cobresal's defence, projects 1.05 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.7%), 2-1 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cobresal Win
50%
2.01
26%
3.83
24%
4.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
Cobresal xG
Total xG
2.67
1.05
Coquimbo Unido xG
2.01
50%
Home win
3.83
26%
Draw
4.14
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
35%
2.87
20%
5.02
Win to Nil
17%
5.78
5%
20.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 7.3 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 11.8 | 6.2 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.5 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 5.1 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cobresal vs Coquimbo Unido?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Cobresal and Coquimbo Unido expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for Cobresal and 1.05 for Coquimbo Unido, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Cobresal vs Coquimbo Unido?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 52 outings, Cobresal have picked up 1.63 PPG on a 24W 13D 15L record — W-D-W-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Cobresal is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Coquimbo Unido's form line: 17W 11D 24L from 52 games, 1.19 PPG, last five L-L-D-D-D. The sample for Coquimbo Unido is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Cobresal are the form team by 0.44 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Coquimbo Unido.
Venue Form
On home soil, Cobresal have posted 2.19 PPG from 26 outings (17W 6D 3L). That's noticeably better than their 1.63 PPG overall — Cobresal are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Coquimbo Unido have gone 6W 6D 14L from 26 away games — 0.92 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cobresal come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Cobresal are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Coquimbo Unido are on 1.19 scored and 1.52 conceded.
Last 52 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cobresal
Blended
Coquimbo Unido
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cobresal and Coquimbo Unido in coming into this match?
Cobresal have gone 24W 13D 15L in their last 52 games (1.63 PPG), while Coquimbo Unido have gone 17W 11D 24L in their last 52 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cobresal at home or Coquimbo Unido away?
Cobresal's home record (2.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cobresal at home: 2.19 PPG; Coquimbo Unido away: 0.92 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to March 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. They last met on 3 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Coquimbo Unido go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Cobresal's record when hosting Coquimbo Unido specifically: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
2
Cobresal
1
Draws
6
Coquimbo Unido
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cobresal and Coquimbo Unido?
From 9 meetings on record, Cobresal have won 2, Coquimbo Unido have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Cobresal and Coquimbo Unido last play each other?
They last met on 3 April 2026, when Coquimbo Unido 3-2 Cobresal.
Who has won more matches between Cobresal and Coquimbo Unido?
Coquimbo Unido have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cobresal are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Coquimbo Unido are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cobresal 50%, Coquimbo Unido 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Cobresal) and 50% (Coquimbo Unido).
On the defensive side: Cobresal keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Coquimbo Unido in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cobresal home games / Coquimbo Unido away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cobresal play Coquimbo Unido?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Cobresal's recent matches and 58% of Coquimbo Unido's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cobresal vs Coquimbo Unido usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Cobresal's recent games and 50% of Coquimbo Unido's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cobresal and Coquimbo Unido tend to score early?
Cobresal have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Coquimbo Unido in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Cobresal edge out Coquimbo Unido 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cobresal beat Coquimbo Unido 3-2 at Estadio El Teniente, Regular Season - 23, in the Primera División. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cobresal 1.61 xG and Coquimbo Unido 1.05 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Cobresal beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Coquimbo Unido outscored their 1.05 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cobresal attack 1.19 / defence 0.85 against Coquimbo Unido attack 1.03 / defence 1.00, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cobresal 50% | Draw 26% | Coquimbo Unido 24%, with Cobresal to win its most likely call at 50%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cobresal 52%, Coquimbo Unido 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cobresal's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Coquimbo Unido's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Cobresal arrived the stronger side — 1.63 PPG against 1.19. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Cobresal (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.65 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.77 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Coquimbo Unido (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.65 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.