York United 3-1 Valour – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Valour at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this York United vs Valour fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Valour make the trip to York Lions Stadium to face York United in Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 11. The match kicks off on Saturday 24 September 2022 at 00:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
York United have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Canadian Premier League outings this season: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: W L W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for York United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at York Lions Stadium, York United have gone 3W 2D 5L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.10 lags behind their overall 1.90 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at York Lions Stadium this season.
Valour's overall Canadian Premier League record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: W W W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Valour, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Valour away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.90 for York United, 1.70 for Valour — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading
York United half-time and goal-timing data (53 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Valour half-time and goal-timing data (53 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — York United 53% versus Valour 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (York United 47% | Valour 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects York United 1.25 xG and Valour 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: York United attack 0.920 / defence 1.194 | Valour attack 1.012 / defence 1.055. League average goals — home 1.291 / away 1.167. Data: 53 York United games / 53 Valour games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: York United 33% | Draw 26% | Valour 41%. Fair-value odds: York United 3.03 | Draw 3.85 | Valour 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Valour as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Valour if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.66 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 50% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: York United 40% | Valour 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: York United vs Valour | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: York Lions Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Sep 2022, 00:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: York United 33% | Draw 26% | Valour 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 54% | xG York United 1.25 / Valour 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: York United attack 0.920 / def 1.194 | Valour attack 1.012 / def 1.055 | league avg home 1.291 / away 1.167 • Poisson stance: Valour (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
York United xG
Expected Goals
1.41
Valour xG
54%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does York United vs Valour kick off?
York United vs Valour kicked off at 00:30 on Saturday 24 September 2022 at York Lions Stadium.
What was the final score in York United vs Valour?
York United 3 - 1 Valour.
Where is York United vs Valour being played?
The match is being played at York Lions Stadium.
What competition is York United vs Valour part of?
York United vs Valour is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win York United vs Valour?
Our statistical model gives York United a 33% chance of winning, Valour a 41% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Valour the favourite.
Will both teams score in York United vs Valour?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both York United and Valour will score (BTTS).
Will York United vs Valour have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between York United and Valour?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are York United and Valour in?
York United (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-W-D. Valour (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from York United's attack rating (0.92) and Valour's defence rating (1.05), the model arrives at 1.25 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Valour's attack (1.01x) against York United's defence (1.19x) — and the away total comes out at 1.41.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.7%), 0-0 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Valour Win
33%
2.99
26%
3.86
41%
2.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.8%
Away win
1 – 0
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
York United xG
Total xG
2.66
1.41
Valour xG
2.99
33%
Home win
3.86
26%
Draw
2.46
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
24%
4.09
29%
3.50
Win to Nil
8%
12.25
12%
8.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 9.8 | 6.9 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 12.3 | 8.7 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 7.7 | 5.4 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.2 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for York United vs Valour?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are York United and Valour expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for York United and 1.41 for Valour, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for York United vs Valour?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
York United come into this having played 53 games, going 16W 18D 19L for 1.25 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-W-D. The sample for York United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Valour sit at 1.36 PPG from 53 outings (20W 12D 21L), a run that reads W-W-W-L-D across their last five. The sample for Valour is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.25 PPG for York United against 1.36 for Valour. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
York United's home form reads 7W 9D 9L across 25 games on their own ground, a 1.20 PPG return.
Away from home, Valour have taken 0.92 points per game from 25 outings (6W 5D 14L). That's a step down from their 1.36 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Valour's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
York United are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Valour are on 1.34 scored and 1.17 conceded.
Defensively: Valour in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 53 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
York United
Blended
Valour
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are York United and Valour in coming into this match?
York United have gone 16W 18D 19L in their last 53 games (1.25 PPG), while Valour have gone 20W 12D 21L in their last 53 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — York United at home or Valour away?
York United's home record (1.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — York United at home: 1.20 PPG; Valour away: 0.92 PPG.
Have York United or Valour been keeping clean sheets recently?
York United have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Valour in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since July 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. They last met on 28 September 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, York United have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Valour — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
York United
2
Draws
3
Valour
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between York United and Valour?
From 10 meetings on record, York United have won 5, Valour have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did York United and Valour last play each other?
They last met on 28 September 2025, when York United 1-0 Valour.
Who has won more matches between York United and Valour?
York United have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
York United see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches.
Valour are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — York United 48%, Valour 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (York United) and 56% (Valour).
On the defensive side: York United keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; York United have failed to score in 36% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = York United home games / Valour away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when York United play Valour?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 48% of York United's games and 64% of Valour's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is York United vs Valour usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of York United's recent games and 56% of Valour's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do York United and Valour tend to score early?
York United have had a goal before half-time in 52% of their recent matches, Valour in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
York United cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Valour.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
York United beat Valour 3-1 at York Lions Stadium, Regular Season - 11, in the Canadian Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting York United 1.25 xG and Valour 1.41 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. York United beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of York United attack 0.92 / defence 1.19 against Valour attack 1.01 / defence 1.05, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it York United 33% | Draw 26% | Valour 41%, with Valour to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual York United win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (York United 47%, Valour 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
York United's trading profile (53 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Valour's trading profile (53 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — York United 1.25 PPG, Valour 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the York United win broke the near-deadlock. York United (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.04 average — above their attacking norm. Valour (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.60 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.