York United vs Supra du Quebec – Pre-Match Analysis

Poisson model rates York United at 59%, yet other data sources diverge — this York United vs Supra du Quebec fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis

Supra du Quebec make the trip to York Lions Stadium to face York United in Canadian Premier League, Group Stage. The match kicks off on Wednesday 7 October 2026 at 15:00 UTC.

Form

York United (all games): 1W 4D 5L across 10 Canadian Premier League fixtures this term — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D W D L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.60 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for York United, so this record blends games from this season and last.

York United's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at York Lions Stadium this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — York United are significantly better at York Lions Stadium than their overall form suggests.

Supra du Quebec's overall Canadian Premier League record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: D L L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Supra du Quebec, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Supra du Quebec's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 4L across 9 road games this term (1.22 PPG). Away from home they average 1.78 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 89% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.70 PPG for York United against 1.10 for Supra du Quebec. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — York United register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant games, Supra du Quebec in 89%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.

Head-to-Head

Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: York United 0W, Supra du Quebec 1W, 1D.

These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 23 Aug 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading Data

York United goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (19 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 88% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 53%.

Supra du Quebec goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (19 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 88% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — York United 79% and Supra du Quebec 79% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (York United 58% | Supra du Quebec 58%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects York United 2.10 xG and Supra du Quebec 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: York United attack 1.010 / defence 0.997 | Supra du Quebec attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.811 / away 1.267. Data: 28 York United games / 0 Supra du Quebec games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: York United 59% | Draw 23% | Supra du Quebec 17%. Fair-value odds: York United 1.69 | Draw 4.35 | Supra du Quebec 5.88. The model has a clear lean to York United (59%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.18. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.18 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is York United at 59% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 3.18 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 62% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: York United 80% | Supra du Quebec 89% BTTS from recent games.

The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

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